Closing Recap

Monday, April 08, 2024

US equity futures gained into the open after holding flattish overnight, but almost immediately retreated to unchanged with no economic data to drive direction early. We will see CPI and PPI later in the week, so it shouldn’t be a shock if we see muted activity for the next couple days. On rates, ahead of the next inflation readings, the bad news is investors may be losing some optimism over expected Fed rate cuts. The good news, though, is lower expectations lead to less potential disappointment down the road. Early breadth favored advancers by a little less than 2:1 as small caps outperformed. IWM gained 0.5% versus SPY and QQQ both flattish. By mid-morning, sector leaders included Consumer Discretionary, Real Estate and Utilities, while Health Care, Energy and Industrials lagged as the only S&P sector ETFs in the red. Breadth remained just short of 2:1 in favor of advancers.

As we head toward this week’s inflation readings, Tom Lee @fundstrat notes he’s a contrarian and sees inflation falling like a rock while consensus is for it to remain stubborn. As a result, he’s a dip buyer. Meanwhile, Jamie Dimon is on the other side, doing his part to manage rates expectations, saying inflation may be stickier and rates higher than currently expected. On a separate note, @KobeissiLetter highlights the disconnect between growth and value, with the ratio between the Russell 1000 Growth and Russell 1000 Value at about 1.4x, the highest since 2021 and the same level as at the top in 2020. The last two times we’ve seen this ratio, value outperformed for the next several months. Did somebody say AI? It’s always dangerous to say it’s different this time because it rarely is, but we shall see. Lastly, @charliebilello notes the average interest rate on US credit card balances has climbed to the highest rate ever seen (data back to 1994) at 21.6%.

Heading into the final hour of trading, large-cap indices remained pegged to the unchanged line ahead of data later in the week. Small caps continued to outperform with IWM +0.56% versus SPY +0.06% and QQQ +0.03%. Value was also an outperformer, with the Russell 1000 Value gaining 0.24% versus its Growth counterpart at -0.03%. Sector-wise, Consumer Discretionary (XLY, +0.95%), Real Estate (XLRE, +0.86%) and Utilities (XLU, +0.66%) remained leaders, while Technology (XLK, -0.12%) and Health Care (XLV, -0.32%) were the only two losing ground on the day.

• May WTI crude futures finished lower by $0.48, or 0.55%, to settle at $86.43. Brent similarly moved lower by $0.79/bbl, or 0.87%, to finish at $90.38. Today we’ve seen a new geopolitical tug of war as Israel withdrew some troops from Gaza over the weekend, pressuring oil. Later headlines indicated the move is just temporary in preparation for a new operation and oil regained overnight losses. In addition to the Gaza headlines there remains uncertainty about a potential Iran strike on Israel. Iran’s foreign minister today noted the coming days will be difficult for Israel. Nevertheless, oil traded modestly lower. We are back to the waiting game on inflation, the Fed and Gaza/Israel/Iran.
• The rise of Bitcoin (BTC) over the past year stands at a remarkable 157% and nearly 63% so far this year. The leading cryptocurrency reached above $72,000 on Monday; just after a week, it had touched around the $65,000 level. Bitcoin is currently changing hands at about $72,140, with market capitalization rising to about $1.42 trillion. Some analysts noted that the strength in space comes ahead of the “Halvening”, expected on April 20^th. The halving occurs approximately every four years when the number of new bitcoins issued per block is cut in half. During this halving period, the block reward will be reduced from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. This reduction in supply will increase the total supply by 164,250 bitcoins, bringing it from 19,687,500 to 20,671,875 (as per Bing.)

• In Consumer Products: Glove maker Ansell Ltd said it will buy the personal protective equipment unit of U.S.-based KMB for $640M and expects to complete the acquisition in the first quarter of financial year 2025.
• In Wholesale Retail: BJ upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman Sachs and raise tgt to $87 from $81 as sees improving top-line growth ahead, driven by increasing volumes and support from inflation in its grocery business (86% of merchandise sales), along with improvement in its general merchandise business.
• In Beauty: ULTA upgraded from Hold to Buy at Loop Capital with $240 tgt saying believe last week’s selloff was well overdone, particularly given the extremely difficult comparison Ulta Beauty is facing in FQ1 20024; expects the company’s performance to improve over the final three quarters of F2024.
• In Autos: TSLA shares rallied after CEO Elon Musk said the EV maker will unveil its long-promised robotaxi on Aug. 8 (the headlines partially weigh on shares of ride hailing stocks UBER, LYFT).

• In Oil Drilling: RIG upgraded from Neutral to Positive at Susquehanna with $9 tgt citing: believes the offshore, ultra-deepwater drilling industry is in a demand recovery cycle, supported by attractive crude prices and offshore economics and on limited available sixth- and seventh-generation drillship supply, capital constraints, and long lead times on newbuilds will likely keep the ultra-deepwater supply tight and support rising dayrates.
• In Lithium: SQM upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies saying while they remain cautious on lithium prices, it sees attractive value emerging in SQM given the reshaping that the company is undergoing.
• In Lumber sector: (LPX, WY, WFG, IP, RYAM), RBC Capital noted lumber prices decrease modestly, OSB up 1.8% w/w as the Framing Lumber Composite decreased $5 w/w to $417 (RBC Elements estimate: $419) and the OSB Composite increased $11 w/w to $614 (RBC Elements estimate: $618).
• In Aerospace & Defense: SAVE reached an agreement with Airbus (EADSY) to defer all aircraft on order that are scheduled to be delivered in the second quarter of 2025 through the end of 2026 to 2030-2031; the FAA said Sunday they would investigate after an engine cowling on a LUV airline, Boeing (BA) 737-800 fell off during takeoff in Denver and struck the wing flap; DCO received an unsolicited, non-binding takeover interest from private investment firm Albion River for $60 per share in cash.

• In Asset Managers: AMG replaces AB as top Traditional Manager at TD Cowen ahead of earnings season while upgraded TROW to Hold vs Sell and downgrade VRTS to Hold vs Buy in Asset managers. TDCowen said they see interesting set-ups into Q1 print as continue to favor the Alts, but they have had big runs into earnings season & the firm revised ’24-25 earnings are generally at/below consensus. Conversely, sentiment on Traditionals remains tepid generally; yet, TDCowen sharply raises estimates & see the biggest upside revisions brewing.
• In Insurance Sector: ALL and AON remain top picks at JP morgan into earnings and remain Underweight on RYAN and TRV while upgrading BRP to Overweight and downgrading PLMR to Neutral. JP morgan remains Overweight on PGR as well, but believe that upside potential in the stock is not compelling in the near term given optimistic expectations on PIF growth and current valuation. The firm said Q1 EPS ests are above consensus for AIG and ACGL and below for TRV and HIG, while its 2024 and 2025 projections are lower for most companies. JRVR said that “the Supreme Court, New York County, Commercial Division granted the company’s request for a preliminary injunction against Fleming Intermediate Holdings, a portfolio company of private equity sponsor Altamont Capital Partners, ordering Fleming to complete its acquisition of JRG Reinsurance Company Ltd. on or prior to 16-Apr-24.”
• In Crypto: Bitcoin rallies over 6%, back over the $72,000 mark, with the largest cryptocurrency gaining for a third consecutive session – shares of COIN, MSTR, MARA, RIOT, CLSK also move in reaction.
• In REITs: BX to acquire AIRC in residential REITs sector at $39.12 per share in an all-cash transaction valued at approximately $10 billion, including the assumption of debt. The purchase price represents a premium of 25% to AIR Communities’ closing share price on the NYSE on April 5, 2024 https://tinyurl.com/muw5fu3x
• In Financial Services: TW struck an agreement to buy investment-technology provider Institutional Cash Distributors as it seeks growth beyond its core rates-trading business. The electronic-trading platform, long known for its fixed-income offerings, will pay about $785 million in its biggest acquisition yet.

• BHC shares dropped after the company filed a patent lawsuit challenging a generic version of the Canadian pharma giant’s bowel disease drug Xifaxan that AMRX seeks to market in the U.S.
• ESPR presented data from a study of its heart drug, Nexletol, in the treatment of diverse population of patients with obesity.
• LEGN and JNJ announced that Carvykti was approved by the FDA for the treatment of multiple myeloma in patients with 1 or more prior lines of therapy including a proteasome inhibitor and IMiD; approval comes after an 11-0 ODAC vote in favor of Carvykti’s risk-benefit in this setting based on the updated results of CARTITUDE-4.
• OCGN said health regulators cleared the company’s application to begin late-stage trial for gene therapy candidate to treat retinitis pigmentosa saying its candidate, OCU400, is the first gene therapy to enter late-stage trial for multiple forms of RP.
• SUPN shares slide after saying the FDA declined to approve its application for its experimental apomorphine infusion device for the continuous treatment of motor fluctuations in Parkinson’s disease; letter says the application is not ready for approval in its present form.
• In Healthcare IT Services: MODN said it has entered into an agreement to be acquired by investment firm Vista Equity Partners for about $1.25 billion, as shareholders to receive $30 per share, representing a premium of 10.7% to the company’s last close. https://tinyurl.com/ysk9fntc

• FSLY upgraded to Overweight with a $16 PT based on multiple upside levers across the CDN business, a favorable competitive landscape, including with competitors’ exits driving opportunities and better pricing; new business strength creating ’24 tailwinds, all while NRR showed a bottoming in 2023 and customer concentration.
• PERI cuts FY24 revenue view to $590M-$610M from $860M-$880M (below consensus $868.39M) and cuts FY24 adjusted EBITDA view to $78M-82M from $178M-$182M, citing search advertising weakness due to changes made by Microsoft Bing in ad pricing and mechanisms.
• TTWO was upgraded to Buy at Citigroup and raises tgt to $200 from $170 saying at prevailing levels the firm sees a Bull case of $235 and a Bear case of $130, akin to a favorable 4:1 risk-reward.
• ZBRA upgraded from Peer Perform to Outperform at Wolfe Research with $337 tgt as sees potential upside to 2024 revenue guidance of -1% to +3% and says revenue guidance for the year implies very minimal sequential revenue improvements throughout the year, but the company has expressed a sense of cautious optimism that underlying demand will improve in 2H.

• In Research: AMAT was upgraded to Overweight at Cantor and downgraded GFS to Neutral; raise tgts WDC, AMAT, ASML, NXPI, MU, KLAC, LRCX, QCOM, and TXN and reduced its price targets for INTC and GFS. Cantor remains Overweight Semiconductors and Semiconductor Equipment saying secular tailwinds from AI, coupled with cyclical recovery elsewhere combined with our being only 4 quarters into the recovery tells them that there remains more upside for the group. The new Top Picks list includes NVDA, WDC, ASML, AMAT, and NXPI.
• SWKS downgraded from Overweight to Sector Weight at KeyBanc and trimming its estimates slightly as sees a fair value of $105, which is based on 13x its 2025 EPS estimate of $7.83. SWKS is currently trading at a forward P/E of 13x, compared to a three- year historical average of 11x.
• INFFY and AMKR deepen partnership and strengthen European supply chain for semiconductor solutions.