Closing Recap

Thursday, April 24, 2025

U.S. stocks climbed steadily higher all day 9closing at the highs), with the S&P 500 taking out the prior day 5,469.69 highs early afternoon and then the 4/9 highs of 5,481.34 (when the S&P surged over 9%) late afternoon as attention turned more to earnings then tariff/trade headlines which were relatively tame in comparison to recent days. The doesn’t mean headlines were absent entirely though! The S&P 500 posted its 3^rd straight day of more than 1.5% gains and looks for its first 4-day win streak tomorrow since the middle of January. Today’s gains were broad based, but tech was the clear leader, with more than 5% gains for the semi (SOX) index and more than 2% gains for AMZN, META, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA and lastly GOOGL which reports after the close tonight and commentary regarding AI spending and cloud revs will be closely watched for the AI space, nuclear and data center names. Ten of eleven S&P sectors were higher today, with Consumer Staples lagging behind PEP and PG earnings results. Of the 157 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported so far, 74% have beaten expectations, and analysts currently believe aggregate S&P 500 earnings growth of 8.9% year-on-year, up from 8.0% as of April 1, according to LSEG.

In trade/tariff news (which was quiet today) overnight, Beijing called for the cancellation of U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods, following comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signaling that the White House could be willing to de-escalate trade tensions that have whipsawed markets for weeks. There were some positive reports that a US/India trade deal was being neared. Trump also hinted during his luncheon with Norway’s PM that some China talks have begun. No details provided. This morning President Trump tweeted on Truth Social: “Boeing should default China for not taking the beautifully finished planes that China committed to purchase. This is just a small example of what China has done to the USA, for years… And, by the way, Fentanyl continues to pour into our Country from China, through Mexico and Canada, killing hundreds of thousands of our people, and it better stop, NOW!”

• March Durables orders surged +9.2% (vs. consensus +2.0%) and vs Feb +0.9%; March Durables ex-transportation orders unchanged (cons +0.3%) vs Feb +0.7%; March Durables ex-defense orders +10.4% (consensus +0.2%) vs Feb +0.8%; March gen. Machinery orders +0.1%, electrical equipment -0.5%, defense aircraft/parts -9.4%; March nondefense cap orders ex-aircraft +0.1%, (cons +0.2%) vs Feb -0.3% (prev -0.2%).
• March Existing Home Sales fell -5.9% y/y to 4.02M unit rate (below consensus 4.13M), vs Feb 4.27M; U.S. March inventory of homes for sale 1.33M units, 4.0 months’ worth; U.S. March national median home price for existing homes $403,700, +2.7% from March 2024.

• WTI crude oil futures rose $0.52 or 0.84% to settle at $62.79 per barrel while Brent futures settle at $66.55/bbl, up 43 cents, 0.65% as oil prices bounced back.
• The 10-yr yield finished back near lows of the day, down 8bps to 4.307% while 2-yr down -6.6bps to 3.795% and the dollar index (DXY) fell again, down -0.5% to 99.35, dropping vs. the euro.

• NSANY said global production in March declined 11.3% y/y, sales down 3.4% y/y; production in Japan declined 8.9% from a year earlier, Nissan said. Production outside Japan declined 11.9% from a year earlier.
• ORLY reported that Q1 EPS miss in auto parts retail; EPS of $9.35 missed (vs $9.86 est.) but comp sales better at +3.6% (vs est. +2.8%). SG&A (90 bps miss) drove the EPS downside with gross margins in-line; reaffirms FY sales, comps and operating margins, but tweak up FY EPS higher.
• TSLA new car sales in Europe dropped 28.2% in March from a year earlier, even as overall battery electric vehicle sales rose 23.6% in the month, according to data from the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA); total new car sales in Europe rose 2.8% in the month.
• VFS Q4 loss widened due to rising costs linked to its overseas expansion and free charging program aimed at attracting buyers; reported a net loss of $1.3B in Q4 from $650M loss a year earlier and a $773M in Q3.

• In Restaurants: CMG reported Q1 comp sales (-0.4%) compared to Street +1.6% and the first negative quarterly comp result since 4Q16, excluding COVID (2Q20) while reduced its full-year comp guidance to LSD (from L-MSD) and guided 2Q comps to down roughly -3.0% (Street +1.3%). JACK is exploring strategic alternatives for Del Taco brand and will accelerate cash flow by selling a select number of owned real estate holdings and said will discontinue its dividend effective immediately.
• In Beverages: PEP Q1 core EPS $1.48 vs. est. $1.49; Q1 revs $17.92B vs. est. $17.73B; still sees 2025 organic revenue up low-single digits; cuts 2025 core constant-currency EPS roughly flat; had seen up mid-single digits; actively planning mitigation actions to address higher supply-chain costs where possible. KDP beats Q1 revenue, profit estimates on strong demand for its energy drinks and beverages among U.S. consumers ($0.42 on sales $3.64B vs. est. $0.38/$3.57B) as U.S. Refreshment Beverages saw an increase of 11% in sales while also reaffirms annual revenue, profit forecasts.
• In Food Sector: In research, UTZ was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Davidson as sees a favorable risk-reward for Utz given that the company’s share of salty snacks is firming amid easing category promotion and the company’s strength in non-tracked channels; the firm downgraded shares of MDLZ to Neutral from Buy saying near-term results could underwhelm due to soft snacking demand in the U.S. as well as a mixed outlook at best across emerging markets. Nestle (NSRGY) Q1 organic sales growth, which excludes the impact of currency movements and acquisitions, rose 2.8% vs. est. 2.5%; reported sales increased by 2.3% to 22.6B Swiss francs ($27.28B), slightly ahead of analyst expectations of 22.5B francs; maintained its 2025 outlook.
• In Retail: TSCO reported a 3c miss for Q1 EPS while sales rose 2% y/y to $2.47B but missed the $3.54B estimate while guided FY25 sales up 4%-8% vs the previous forecast of up 5%-7%, and projected adj EPS of $2.00-$2.18 is down from $2.10-$2.22 citing notable increase in uncertainty, in particular the introduction of new tariffs. Toy retailer HAS shares surge as Q1 EPS and sales top consensus ($1.04/$887.1M vs. est. $0.67/$770.6M) saying its shift toward higher-margin businesses was offsetting tariff pressures and also announced it has extended its long-running relationship with DIS to make toys for the popular Star Wars and Marvel brands.

• DOV lowered full-year adjusted profit range to $9.20-$9.40 per share, compared with $9.30-$9.50 after posting Q1 EPS beat of $2.05 vs. est. $1.98 on in-line revs $1.87B
• DOW posts Q1 EBITDA beat on better sales; said to delay construction of Path2zero project; guides Q2 revs to ~$10.4B below the $10.8B consensus and said expects to deliver ~$6B in near-term cash support.
• FAST announced a 2 for 1 stock split
• FTI posts top and bottom line miss for Q1 while rases FCF guidance.
• LII upgraded from Perform to Outperform at Oppenheimer with $600 tgt saying Wednesday’s post-EPS pullback provides an entry point, as share reaction largely drove off BCS/margin weakness, which OPCO views as transitory and adjusted FY25 guidance, which it believes embeds appropriate conservatism on volumes.
• MTDR posts Q1 EPS and EBITDA beat on better production in qtr; guides FY total production to 198,000-202,000 boe/d; announces repurchase of up to $400mn of common stock.
• PTEN Q1 adj EBITDA beat on better revenue and guided to a steady rig count q/q.
• TXT beat on better revenue for Q1 and reaffirms FY EPS guide of $6-6.20.
• VLO Q1 EPS beat and refining margin/bbl better than expected.
• In Aerospace & Defense: CACI shares rise; Q3 adj EPS $6.23 vs. est. $5.60; Q3 revs $2.2B vs. est. $2.13B; raises FY25 EPS view to $24.24-$24.87 from $23.87-$24.76 (est. $24.45) and boosts FY25 revenue view to $8.55B-$8.65B, from $8.45B-$8.65B (lifting shares of gov’t IT defense service names like BAH, LDOS, PLTR early). PLTR and GOOGL cloud computing unit has expanded its partnership to target federal agencies with security-approved services, the companies said.
• In Utilities: several earnings as PCG Q1 core EPS came in 1c light on worst revenue/reaffirms core EPS guidance; XEL Q1 EPS came in light in quarter however reaffirms FY25 EPS at $3.75-$3.85 vs. est. $3.81; CMS Q1 EPS beat on better revenue while reaffirms FY EPS guidance and long-term EPS growth of 6-8%, with continued confidence towards the high end; FE Q1 EPS came in slightly light for quarter and reiterating 2025 guidance and long-term growth rate assumptions.

• BANC posted 1Q operating EPS of $0.26 that was above consensus of $0.23; Upside vs. consensus was due to better core NIE (EPS: +$0.03) and both a lower LLP (+$0.02) and tax rate (+$0.01) partially offset by weaker NII (-$0.03) and upsizes stock buyback program to $300M.
• HBAN and MTB both upgraded to Buy from Hold in regional banks at Deutsche Bank post earnings as sees more upside within the large regionals vs the mega caps mostly given lower P/E valuations (9.7x vs 11.6x on the FY25 consensus).
• PPBI to be acquired by COLB in an all-stock transaction. Pacific Premier stockholders will receive 0.9150 of a share of Columbia common stock for each Pacific Premier share they own. The transaction is anticipated to close in the second half of 2025.

• In FinTech: FI Q1 revs rose 5% y/y to $4.79B, which missed the $4.84B consensus estimate; while backed its FY adj EPS and FY25 organic rev growth figures but shares still tumbled.
• In Staffing: RHI shares fell sharply after Q1 results missed across the board as EPS $0.17 missed the est. $0.36 on revs $1.35B vs est. $1.408B; (weighed on MAN, KFY early).

• EW was upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper and raised tgt to $80 from $73 after results; the firm said it sees a better pathway back to double-digit growth in FY2026 (vs. its prior view of FY2027). This is driven by what Piper believes to be a healthier TAVR business (as evidenced by Q1 EPS and its recent doc checks) and the TMTT ramp.
• HALO sued MRK over a subcutaneous version of the cancer drug Keytruda, which HALO says uses a drug delivery technology patented by it.
• MRK 1Q Ahead with revenue +1.3% vs. cons with Januvia, Winrevair, Janumet Ahead, Keytruda, Molnupiravir, Gardasil Inline – with -41% y/y growth on China, grew +14% ex China, Slightly worse margins, EPS $2.22 (vs. $2.13 cons). 25 Guidance – maintained WW sales outlook while lower EPS outlook.
• RHHBY reported 1Q’25 sales that were in line with consensus, as Pharma beat (+2%/CHF226m) while Diagnostics missed (-2%/-CHF89m) due to the ongoing impact of healthcare pricing reforms in China. Within the key products, the HER2 franchise was in line with consensus as switching to Phesgo continues, Ocrevus missed by 2%/CHF29m, Vabysmo missed by 8%/CHF86m, while Hemlibra beat by 3%/CHF29m.
• SNY reported 1Q25 sales/BOI/EPS of €9.9bn/€2.9bn/€1.79, +3%/+8%/+5% vs Vara consensus. Key product sales beats were Dupixent (+1% or +€13mn vs consensus), Beyfortus (+32% or +€69mn vs consensus), Lantus (+23% or +€83mn vs consensus) and Altuviiio (+5% or +€13mn vs consensus).
• SWTX shares jumped late day after the WSJ reported that Germany’s Merck KGaA (MKGAY), which had confirmed in February it was in advanced talks to buy SpringWorks Therapeutics (SWTX), is nearing a roughly $3.5B deal valued at about $47 per share.
• WST reported Q1 revs and EPS both above consensus and raises EPS guidance by 2.5% at the midpoint, Announces CFO Transition.

• RMD Q325 revenue was ahead of expectations, driven by the upside in Masks & Accessories.

• ALK posts Q1 EPS loss (-$0.77) vs. est. loss (-$0.72) on revs $3.14B but withdrew its 2025 financial forecast on concerns over discretionary budget amid tariff pressures and government spending uncertainties; guided Q2 EPS $1.15-$1.65, well below the $2.47 estimate.
• KNX Q1 LSD truckload contract rate improvement still expected but offset by weak spot market activity which softened in March; LTL outlook for margin and shipment gains in 2Q a positive.
• LUV shares drop as withdrew the only six week old prior significantly improved 2025 and 2026 EBIT guidance as Q2 revenue outlook signals sequentially softer outcomes despite likely favorable impact from bag fees in late May; Q1 adj EPS ($0.13) vs est. ($0.18) on revs $6.4B vs est. $6.403B; guides Q2 RASM flat to down 4% and CASM-X up 3.5 to 5.5%, sees Q2 ASM +1-2%, says proactively reducing capacity in 2H25
• UNP misses Q1 earnings estimates and light revs in railroads, hurt by weak automotive shipments and lower fuel surcharge; posted Q1 EPS $2.70/$6.03B sales vs. est. $2.75/$6.08B.

• IBM shares slumped; Q1 headlines results better but the software unit misses estimates; as Q1 headline revs beat at $14.54B vs est. $14.4B with Software revs +9% y/y cc (vs +11.5% y/y cc last qtr) with Hybrid Cloud (Red Hat) +13% y/y cc (vs Red Hat +17% y/y cc last qtr); guides 2Q revs $16.4-16.75B vs cons $16.28B and reiterates FY Revs guide (prior at least 5% y/y cc) and FCF (prior about $13.5B).
• NOW reported better cRPO growth of 22% Y/Y, a significant 150bps above guidance as GenAI momentum continued to accelerate and saw a very good uptick in Pro Plus deals; NOW guided to cRPO growth of 19.5% Y/Y CC for Q2, roughly in line with the Street and slightly above buy-side expectations.
• NTDOY said it has received 2.2M applications in the lottery for its Switch 2 gaming device in Japan but cannot fulfil all the demand; there were far more applications on the My Nintendo Store than expected and the amount that can be delivered on June 5 has been greatly exceeded, Nintendo said in a social media post.

• MBLY Q1 revs $438M tops $435M estimate on smaller ES loss of (-$0.13) vs. (-0.27) y/y; now expects second-quarter revenue to increase around 7% from the previous year, compared with analysts’ ests of a -2% fall.
• MCHP announces the MCPF1412, a highly efficient and fully integrated point-of-load 12A power module with a 16V VIN Buck converter and support for I2C and PMBus® interfaces.
• ON was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at B Riley and cut tgt to $41 from $73 saying likes management’s higher value strategic focus and cost reductions but believes the timing to the next sustained revenue inflection is unclear and perhaps distant.
• PI shares jumped after reported first quarter results, which exceeded expectations on both the top and bottom lines and also exceeded expectations for June guidance; Q1 adj EPS $0.21 vs est. $0.08, adj EBITDA $6.5Mm vs est. $2.478Mm on revs $74.277Mm vs est. $71.7Mm.
• SIMO upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Bank America but lower PT to $47 following severe share price correction since Aug 2024; high gross margin and quarterly dividend should prevent severe share price correction, but earnings growth not yet strong.
• STM forecast revenue of $2.71B in Q2, 16.2% lower than last year but above analysts’ expectations of $2.62B. The outlook does not factor in any impact from potential further changes to global trade policies; Q1 revenue was $2.52B, in line with STMicro’s own forecast and analysts’ estimates.
• TXN shares rose as printed a 1Q25 revenue beat, with sales of $4.07B above ests and guided 2Q25 revenue to a midpoint of $4.35B (+6.9% q/q), in-line with Street, with the GAAP EPS guidance midpoint of $1.34 coming in above consensus; segment Results: Analog improved +1.1% q/q to $3.21B.