Market Review: April 30, 2024

Closing Recap

Tuesday, April 30, 2024





DJ Industrials




S&P 500








Russell 2000













US equity futures faded modestly overnight after some lackluster guidance from several companies after the close yesterday, then took a big pre-market dip on stronger employment cost data. The Q1 ECI rose 1.2% versus an expected +1.0% and Q4’s +0.9% with benefit costs gaining 1.1% versus last quarter’s +0.7%. Early breadth was strongly in favor of decliners by almost 3:1, as small caps lagged early with IWM -1.09% vs SPY -0.32% and QQQ -0.36%. Sector-wise, Healthcare was the early leader and lone gainer across S&P sector ETFs (thank you LLY), while Energy, Consumer Discretionary and Materials paced the decliners and ranged from -1% to -1.4%. Investors continued to hold a cautious stance as the Fear and Greed Index remained in the Fear zone at 44 but is up slightly versus 39 a week ago. That’s still a big dip versus the 69 (Greed) reading just a month back and 59 (Greed) a year earlier.


In interesting factoids today, @charliebilello notes the Case-Shiller 20-City Home US Price Index hit another all-time high in February with all cities measuring an increase year/year. Meanwhile, @bespokeinvest highlights the expectations component of the Consumer Confidence report has only been below its current level twice in the last ten years. They also note google searches for the term, “stagflation” has jumped to levels not seen since 1H22. On the wage inflation data, @Kobeissiletter notes per the NY Fed, wage inflation is sticky around 5%, more than twice the Fed’s long-term 2% inflation goal. Higher-for-longer continues to look here-to-stay for a bit. Lastly, on that 2% inflation target, @RBAdvisors opines today’s Employment Cost Index is the latest indicator suggesting that goal may be a “pipe dream.”


Heading into the final hour of trading, stocks were near the daily lows and breadth had expanded to more than 7:2 in favor of decliners. Small caps continued to underperform with IWM -2.1% versus SPY -1.4% and QQQ -1.7%. Healthcare continued to be the lone gainer amongst S&P sector ETFs (XLV +0.05%), while Energy (XLE, -2.8%), Consumer Discretionary (XLY, -2.2%) and Materials (XLB, -1.7%) held their ground as leading decliners. Value and growth were equally soft with both the Russell 1000 Growth and Value each -1.12%. We get another big round of earnings after the close (AMZN, AMD), but really all eyes will be on the Fed commentary tomorrow. No rate move is expected for May and the implied probabilities at this point really don’t see a move coming until November/December, so perhaps hawkish comments will not be met with any surprise.

Economic Data

  • U.S. Q1 employment cost index +1.2% (consensus +1.0%) vs Q4 +0.9% (prev +0.9%); U.S. Q1 benefit costs +1.1% vs Q4 +0.7% (prev +0.7%); U.S. Q1 wages/salaries +1.1% vs Q4 +1.1% (prev +0.9%)
  • Chicago PMI data was very weak, reported at 37.9 (worst since Nov 2022) below consensus of 45.0 and prior 41.4 reading.
  • April Consumer Confidence index 97.0 below consensus 104.0 in another weak reading.
  • S&P CoreLogic home price metric bounced 0.9% to 320.0 for the February 20-City index, a record high level, after dipping -0.1% to 317.0 (was 317.1) in January. The annual rate of appreciation accelerated to 7.3% y/y from 6.6% y/y. The 10-City measure climbed 1.0% to 336.0 after dipping fractionally to 332.7 (was 332.8) previously; index is up 8.0% y/y from 7.4% y/y.
  • Dallas Fed Texas service sector revenue index 0.3 in April vs 4.0 in March and index of general business activity outlook -10.6 in April vs -5.5 in March.

Commodities, Currencies & Treasuries

  • June gold futures slid $54.80/oz, or -2.32%, to settle at $2,302.90 as views turn to a more hawkish Fed. Following this morning’s hotter employment cost report, gold was pretty much straight down all day and hit a three-week low, though did manage to finish above its intraday low. Investors are back to expecting a higher-for-longer stance from the Fed as it keeps its 2% inflation target and likely postpones cuts. A jump in the ten-year US yield on today’s data diminished the relative safe-haven premium in gold as investors await an official stance from the Fed tomorrow. Bitcoin prices -4.7% below $60K.
  • June WTI crude futures gained overnight but followed US equities lower after a hotter employment cost report and fears of a more hawkish Fed. It was a bit of a rollercoaster session, finally settling off the low, but -$0.70/bbl, or -0.85%, to $81.93. Brent similarly faded $0.54/bbl, or -0.61%, to settle at $87.86 as investors face renewed talk of higher-for-longer US rates. Though early headlines indicated OPEC April output fell by 100,000 bpd, today’s move was all about the demand fears absent Fed rate cuts. More on the Fed later this week.





WTI Crude















10-Year Note




Sector News Breakdown

Retail, Consumer Staples & Restaurants:

  • In Restaurants: MCD Q1 EPS $2.70 missed the consensus $2.72 on weaker Q1 comp sales of +1.9% vs. +2.33% estimate while revs of $6.17B narrowly beat the $6.16B expected; global comparable sales growth slid for the fourth straight quarter noting weakness in international comps de to Israel-Hamas war; has raised prices by roughly mid- to high-single-digit percentage over the past year in response to a rise in costs of eggs and other raw items. QSR said it is committing another $300 million to remodeling Burger King’s U.S. restaurants, while Burger King’s same-store sales grew 3.8% in Q1, shy of ests; overall, QSR beat expectations for Q1 sales and profit, helped by a rebound in demand Tim Hortons chain as overall quarterly same-store sales growth of 4.6% also tops estimates of a 3.78% rise. EAT raised its annual guidance after posting higher sales in Q3 as guides FY EPS $3.80-$4 above prior $3.45-$3.70 a share and better revs. YUMC Q1 EPS $0.71 vs. est. $0.65; Q1 revs $2.96B vs. est. $3.05B; Q1 operating profit reaches $374M with core operating profit growing to $396M.
  • In Food & Beverage: KO Q1 adj EPS $0.72 beats $0.70 est. as Unit case volume +1% vs. est. +1.27%and adj organic revenue rose +11% vs. est. +6.13%; said now expecting organic sales growth of 8% to 9%, up from the previous range of 6% to 7% while maintains annual comparable EPS (non-GAAP) growth of 4% to 5%; raised forecasts on strong global demand for sodas/juices. TAP 1Q beat net sales ($2.6B/est. $2.5B), underlying EBITDA ($476M vs. est. $418M), and underlying EPS ($0.95 beats the $0.74 estimate) while maintained 2024 guidance, but 1Q, on strike-related shipment timing, is expected to be the best y/y period. 1Q variable costs were improved, and fixed cost leverage was strong; SYY mixed with EPS beating/sales miss while saying higher volumes improved Sysco’s gross margin, though they also contributed to a 5.5% increase in operating costs.


  • MMM Q1 EPS $2.39 vs. est. $2.10; Q1 revs $7.72B vs. est. $7.13B; posted a 21% rise in quarterly profit as price hikes and cost cuts offset the impact from slow sales; beat comes during a quarter when it finalized two major legal settlements.
  • ETN raises full-year 2024 adj profit forecast to $10.20-$10.60 from prior range of $9.95-$10.35 after Q1 beat ($2.40 vs. $2.29) as reports 8% y/y rise in Q1 revenue at $5.94B vs. est. $5.91B
  • FLS Q1 results were well above expectations with its 9th consecutive quarter of +$1B bookings; the Q1 beat was driven by both topline and margins (>30% Gross Margin a welcome development).
  • PCAR Q1 revs $8.74B beat consensus of $8.24B, but guidance of U.S. and Canada heavy-duty truck retail sales in 2024 to range from 250,000 to 290,000 trucks, lower than previous forecast of 260,000 to 300,000 trucks weighed on shares.
  • TT Q1 adj EPS and revs topped consensus; raises annual profit forecast on resilient demand for HVAC systems from commercial buildings as sees 2024 adj EPS $10.40-$10.50 vs. prior $10.00-$10.30.
  • In Transports, more weak results in trucking sector after several disappointments last week, as ARCB shares fall on both a top and bottom line Q1 miss; followed results from ODFL, LNX, SAIA last week that disappointed; CHRW to report later this week.

Aerospace & Defense

  • BA was downgraded from Buy to Hold at Argus saying they think shares are fairly valued at current prices around $173, below the midpoint of their 52-week range of $159-$267 and from a technical standpoint, the shares have been in a bearish pattern of lower highs and lower lows since November 2023.
  • HUBB posted slight beats on EPS and revs for Q1 and anticipates full year 2024 total sales growth of 8-10% and organic net sales growth of 3-5%, as compared to full year 2023.
  • Defense company LDOS boosted its FY 2024 profit and revenue forecasts on strong weapons demand amid rising geopolitical tensions as now sees 2024 EPS of $8.40-$8.80 vs prior view of $7.50-$7.90 and revs $16-$16.4B from $15.7-$16.1B.

Materials, Metals & Mining

  • In Chemicals: MOS said that Saudi Arabia’s flagship mining firm Ma’aden would acquire the U.S.-based company’s stake in a phosphate production joint venture by issuing shares worth about $1.5B; Ma’aden will issue about 111M shares to buy the 25% stake Mosaic owns in a joint venture with them.
  • In Uranium: CCJ Q1 adj EPS C$0.13, vs. est. C$0.37 as 2024 outlook remains solid; financial discipline and strong cash position result in focused debt reduction; operationally, segments performing to plan; attributes of baseload nuclear power attracting tech sector investment.

Banks, Brokers, Asset Managers:

  • In Banks: HSBC CEO Noel Quinn said will be leaving after almost five years at the helm; Q1 profit that came above Wall Street’s estimates.
  • In FinTech/payments: PYPL Q1 EPS missed but net revs rose 9.4% y/y to $7.7B vs. est. $7.51B as total payment volume was $403.9B, +14% y/y above est. $392.9B and guidance for EPS growth to grow by "mid to high single-digit percentage" in 2024 versus 2023 levels. Up from prior view where forecast EPS to remain in line.
  • In Lending: TREE shares jump as reported Q1 revs $167.8M topping $162.8M estimate and raised its FY24 view to $690M-$720M from prior view $650M-$690M and guided Q2 revs above views as well at $175M-$190M vs. est. $168M.
  • In Financial Services: MSCI upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Bank America and raised tgt to $525 from $425 saying the recent stock pullback is pricing in an "unlikely worst-case scenario" and sees pending upside support from buybacks.


  • AKR reported a 1Q beat vs. consensus, though management affirmed its FY24 FFO guidance of $1.24-$1.32/share (before special items), which may temper excitement around the beat. Notably, results included a $0.03/share payment attributable to a terminated disposition as well as $0.04/share of realized gains from ACI stock sales.
  • BRX Q1 results and 2024 guidance raise were a strong start to shopping center REIT earnings driven by +19.5% blended lease spreads and sequentially stronger occupancy. FY24 same property NOI growth near top of subsector at new 3.50% -4.25% range (+88bps at midpoint); SSNOI growth of 5.9% y/y represents a solid uptick from 3.1% last quarter.
  • LTC Q1 FFO per share was in line and management’s quarterly guidance provided prior but missed consensus.
  • NTST reported a $0.01/share 1Q24 beat vs. consensus and mgmt tweaked the midpoint of its FY24 AFFO guidance higher by 0.4% by lifting the low end of the range by $0.01/share.
  • SUI reported 1Q24 Core FFO above consensus estimates, but lowered 2024 North America SS NOI growth guidance to 5.2% due to softer-than-expected RV results.

Biotech & Pharma:

  • Weight loss drugs see strength after LLY mixed Q1 results as EPS beat ($2.58 vs. $2.46) and sales ($8.77B vs. $8.92B but up from $6.96B y/y) as gross margin 80.9% above 76.6% y/y; noted R&D expenses rose 27% y/y to $2.52B; raised full-year revenue expectations to between $42.4B-$43.6B from $40.4B-$41.6B, driven by Mounjaro and Zepbound sales and boosted its forecast by $1.30 a share, to a range of $13.50-$14.00.
  • HRMY said it has acquired privately held Epygenix Therapeutics for an initial $35 million in cash in a deal that adds a rare epilepsy franchise to its pipeline of central-nervous-system assets.
  • INCY Q1 revs well below consensus after both Jakafi and Opzelura miss, mgmt maintains guidance; Q1 Jakafi revenue $572M vs $633M est. Q1 Opzelura revenue $86M vs $102M est. Maintains Jakafi net product revenues FY24 guide $2,690-$2,750M.
  • NRXP shares fell after saying its experimental suicidal bipolar depression drug reduced risk of suicide by 33%, which was not statistically significant, in a mid-to-late-stage trial comparing it to generic drug lurasidone.
  • WGS shares jumped as Q1 revenue $62.42M, vs. consensus $49.46M; raises FY24 revenue view to $235M-$245M from $220M-$230M (est. $226.1M) and raises FY24 adjusted gross margin profile view to at least 60% from at least 50%; said GeneDx drove robust 91% Y/Y whole-exome and genome test volume and drove much higher-than-expected margins.
  • Cannabis stocks surged (MSOS, CGC, TLRY, CRLBF, CRON, GRWG, GTBIF, TCNNF) after reports the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration will move to reclassify marijuana as a less dangerous drug, The Associated Press has learned. The DEA’s proposal, which still must be reviewed by the White House Office of Management and Budget, would recognize the medical uses of cannabis, and acknowledge it has less potential for abuse than some of the nation’s most dangerous drugs.

Healthcare Services & MedTech movers:

  • GEHC shares tumble on top and bottom line miss as Q1 adj EPS $0.90 vs. est. $0.91; Q1 revs $4.6B vs. est. $4.8B; reaffirms FY organic revenue growth of approximately 4% y/y.
  • MED shares tumbled as Q1 adj EPS $0.66 missed ests $0.78 on better revs $174.74Mm vs. est. but Q2 guidance was below consensus for EPS/revs (Q2 revs $150-170Mm vs est. $175.1Mm).
  • Hospital operator THC Q1 beats and boosts FY adj. EPS forecast to range of $8.37-$9.41 from previous forecast of $5.76-$6.90 and raises FY revenue view to $20B-$20.4B vs. prior $19.9B-$20.3B.
  • WMT said it is shutting down Walmart Health, which offered primary care, labs, and other services across 51 locations, as well as its telehealth service Walmart Health Virtual Care.

Internet, Media & Telecom

  • In Online services: COUR shares fall as reported disappointing results, and 2024 revenue guidance was lowered by 5% on Consumer demand softening, as well as delayed content from an educator partner. CHGG was downgraded to Underperform from Hold at Jefferies and cut tgt to $4 from $7 following the Q1 print which included Q2 guidance that was 8%/15% below consensus (midpoint).
  • In Towers & Telecom: SBAC Q1 results were below expectations, with consolidated organic growth in line but lower Domestic organic growth; adjusted EBITDA and AFFO/share also missing. AMT stronger results in towers with Q1 adj Ebitda beat $1.85B vs. $1.77B and raises FY adj EBITDA to $7.12B-$7.23B, from $7.08B-$7.19B (est. $7.1B).
  • In Media: ROKU announced plans for a new data-driven TV streaming partnership with TTD to equip advertisers with better planning, buying, and measurement of TV streaming media; PARA announced that Bob Bakish, President, and CEO, is stepping down from his role as CEO and from the Board of Directors and posted mixed Q1 results. WSJ reported that CMCSA’s NBCUniversal is planning to pay average of ~$2.5B/year to broadcast package of NBA games; Warner’s TNT’s currently pays $1.2B; ESPN is set to retain its NBA rights, albeit at an annual bill of ~$2.6B (vs. $1.5B now)

Hardware & Software movers:

  • FFIV shares fell after Q1 results were mixed with top-line metrics below expectations and lower than expected Q3 guidance, making a tougher Q4 setup/profitability remain a positive, with EPS beating expectations and getting a raise for FY guidance.
  • IT shares dropped after mixed Q1 results as EPS beat but revenues fell short of consensus ($1.47B vs. $1.49B) and guided 2024 revs at least $6.2B vs. est. $6.29B and EPS at least $10.90 (below est. $11.38).
  • PRFT shares rose after Bloomberg reported is considering a potential sale
  • ST shares jumped after Q1 adj EPS beat on higher revs and guided CQ2 about in-line with consensus while saying it had reached a cooperation and information sharing agreement with activist investor Elliott; appoints Martha Sullivan as interim President and CEO as Jeff Cote to retire from role.


  • Samsung (SSNLF) results positive for memory names early: Samsung said Q1 operating profit came in at 6.6 trillion won ($4.8B), up from the 640B won ($465M) it earned during the same period last year while revenue rose by nearly 13% to 71.9 trillion won ($52B), driven by higher prices for memory chips and robust sales of its flagship Galaxy S24 smartphones.
  • AMKR reported mixed Q1 results with earnings beat but softer than seasonal revenues on continued industry headwinds (end-market softness, inventory digestion, & ongoing geopolitical dynamics).
  • LSCC reported in-line 1Q results and guided 2Q lower on continued weakness in FPGA markets, as inventory destocking headwinds continue to linger; said continues to see a 2H recovery, as inventory headwinds dissipate and new product ramps from Nexus and Avant contribute incremental revenues.
  • NXPI posted solid 1Q results and guided 1Q slightly above. 1Q results reflect in-line demand in auto and comm infra, while industrial & IoT was slightly below, and mobile was slightly above. 2Q revenue is expected to be flat q/q, largely in line with consensus, which likely reflects signs of stabilization and bottoming cyclical demand in industrials.


Market commentary provided by Hammerstone Markets, Inc, a firm separate from and not affiliated with Regal Securities. Regal Securities has not participated in the creation of the content, and does not explicitly or implicitly endorse the content.