Market Review: January 30, 2024

Closing Recap

Tuesday, January 30, 2024





DJ Industrials




S&P 500








Russell 2000













The waiting game is almost over as the big reveal of key earnings in the tech space are upon us! U.S. stocks finished lower, but off their worst levels of the session into the biggest night thus far for the technology sector in this young earnings season with MSFT, GOOGL and AMD results on deck. The S&P 500 (SPX) finished little changed after breaking out to new record highs the day prior, while the Nasdaq lagged on some light profit taking. Financials (XLF) were market leaders, with shares of JPM hitting record highs along with 52-week highs for ALLY, AIG, BK, C, MA, WFC, and others. Energy (XLE) also outperformed behind a bounce in oil prices. Transportation stocks declined behind a weak earnings result and guidance from UPS and the Smallcap Russell 2000 underperformed. The FOMC began its 2-day meeting today with its interest rate decision expected tomorrow after at 2:00 PM (Fed widely expected to be on hold with the 5.25% to 5.50% band left intact). Fed officials are widely expected to remove the hawkish phrase from the December statement "in determining the extent of any additional policy firming" and replace it with something more neutral, consistent with the end of the tightening cycle. Treasury yields slipped; gold rose as we await the Fed/Powell. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its forecast for global economic growth, upgrading the outlook for both the U.S. and China on faster-than-expected easing of inflation. The IMF said it expects the US Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of England to keep interest rates at current levels until the second half of 2024 before gradual decline. IMF lifts China GDP forecast to 4.6% in 2024 vs 4.2% in October; leaves 2025 forecast unchanged at 4.1% and raises 2024 global GDP growth outlook to 3.1% from 2.9%.

Economic Data

  • December Job openings (JOLTs) were 9.026M vs. est. 8.750M (and vs. prior 8.93M).
  • Consumer Confidence index for January rose to 114.8 (best levels since Dec 2021) from December revised 108.0 (vs. est. 115.0); Present Situation Index surged to 161.3 from 147.2 last month and the Expectations Index improved to 83.8 in January, up from a revised reading of 81.9 in December.
  • November 20-metro area home prices +5.4% y/y vs. consensus +5.8% and compared to +4.9% in October according to S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller, while November home prices in 20 metro areas +0.1% seasonally adj (consensus +0.5%) vs +0.6% in October. U.S. November home prices +0.3% from October.
  • While inflation has eased, and jobs remain strong, bespoke invest tweeted that: "Regional Fed Manufacturing reports in January: Dallas: Huge miss, KC: Miss, Richmond: Miss, Philadelphia: Miss, Empire: Huger than huge miss – noting January is just the fourth time since 2012 that all 5 regional Fed reports were negative and weaker than expected."


  • Oil prices advanced, with WTI crude rose $1.04 or 1.35% to settle at $77.82 per barrel and Brent Crude futures settle at $82.87/bbl, up 47 cents, 0.57% on Middle East tensions. U.S. natural gas futures bounced off 9-month lows to settle at $2.077 mln btu after the lower-priced March contract became the front-month and on forecasts for milder weather and lower heating demand. Markets also noted that U.S. industrial demand for gas was depressed, in part because of the ongoing outage of a liquefaction unit at Freeport LNG’s export plant.
  • Gold prices rise $6.30 to settle at $2,050.90 an ounce as we roll to April contract. Gold prices ticked up supported by a slightly weaker dollar and lower Treasury yields as investors primed for the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy meeting for updates on the timing of its interest rate cuts. The Fed’s policy decision is due on Wednesday, having made a dovish tilt in the December meeting. Markets are widely expecting the U.S. central bank to leave rates unchanged at the end of the two-day meeting.





WTI Crude















10-Year Note




Sector News Breakdown

Retail, Consumer Staples & Restaurants:

  • In Food & beverages: SYY missed Q2 sales at $19.28B vs. est. $19.31B amid slowing demand for custom meat cuts and high-quality seafood, while EPS came in slightly above views. DEO said 1H profit fell, dragged by a sharp decline in sales at its Latin American and Caribbean divisions, which account for 11% of the company’s revenue.
  • In Retail: FIVE downgraded from Outperform to Perform at Oppenheimer and cut tgt to $200 from $235 saying they are starting to fret that underlying growth dynamics for FIVE are slowing, at least somewhat, given a now larger base of units, waning remodeling opportunities, and stepped-up reinvestment requirements. COST hits record highs approaching $700 per share.
  • In Appliances: WHR Q4 results topped consensus but forecast full-year sales and profit below analysts’ estimates (guided FY sales $16.9B vs. est. $17.68B and EPS to be between $13-$15 vs. est. $15.48 per share).

Autos, Leisure, Gaming & Lodging:

  • In Autos: GM better results and guide as Q4 adj EPS $1.24 vs. est. $1.16; Q4 revs $42.98B vs. est. $38.97B; forecasts 2024 adj EPS $8.50 to $9.50, above est. $7.70; sees FY adj auto free cash flow $8B to $10B and adj Ebit $12B-$14B, vs. est. $10.96B (the data helped boost shares of Ford and others initially).
  • In Leisure: PII Q4 adj EPS $1.98 vs. est. $2.57; Q4 revs $2.29B vs. est. $2.24B; expects 2024 sales to be down five to seven percent versus 2023 and expects adj diluted EPS from continuing operations to be down 10%-15% versus 2023. In Boating, MBUU the latest name to disappoint as Q2 sales -38% y/y to $211.1M vs. est. $219.7M and anticipates fy24 adjusted ebitda margin down 800 to 900 basis points, y/y (follows recent HZO warning).
  • In Travel: BKNG removed from the Best ideas list at Wedbush saying while expects Booking will continue to execute well in the current travel environment, shares of Booking have appreciated ~20% over the past six months, versus a 9% increase in the Nasdaq index.
  • In Lodging: MAR tgt to $270 from $215 and HLT to $215 from $170 at TD Cowen saying they see a favorable setup for MAR & HLT into Q4 earnings despite richer multiples given strong unit growth momentum; higher pricing; potential US acceleration on better corp. travel & int’l inbound/outbound balance.
  • In Education Services: ATGE shares tumbled following a short report from Safkhet Capital, saying they believe the co has serious issues to contend with in the near-term


  • In Services & Oil Equipment: shares of SLB, BKR, BORR, HAL and others declined after Saudi Aramco said it will cut its planned maximum sustainable oil production capacity to 12M barrels a day (bpd) after being ordered by Saudi Arabia’s government. The new target is one million bpd below the target announced in 2020. HP Q1 EBITDA of $208M 6% above est., driven by strong NAM Solutions daily margin of $18.7K (+$1.2K QoQ) with average revenue/day of $38.3K (+$985 QoQ) and average opex/day of $19.6K (-$225 QoQ).
  • In Refiners: MPC shares jump over 6% following Q4 rev beat $36.82B above est. $34.9B (bit down from $40.09B y/y), helping boost shares of refiners all day PSX, PBF, VLO on day.

Banks, Brokers, Asset Managers:

  • In Banks: Morgan Stanley upgraded shares of BAC to Overweight, Citi (C) upgraded to OW (from Underweight), GS upgraded to Overweight, BK upgraded to Equal Weight and downgraded NTRS to Underweight saying it looks like Basel Endgame will be lightened up, which opens the door for a significant increase in buybacks, as large cap banks have the highest excess capital levels ever. The firm also raised priced tgts by median 16% as it rolls its valuation year from 2024 to 2025 and new 2025 EPS estimates are median +18% higher than its old 2024 estimates.
  • Regional bank: WAL downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Wells Fargo saying current results and guidance leave little room for error. Wells notes they have been vocal supporters of WAL through the past year, but risk/reward scenarios at this stock price level seem skewed to the downside.
  • In Payments: SQ upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Wedbush and raised tgt to $90 from $70 as now has increased conviction in the company’s ability to post improving performance in its weak merchant segment (47.7% of Q3/CY24’s gross profits). SQ was also upgraded to Buy at BTIG with $85 tgt. PYPL announced it will reduce its global workforce by 9% in 2024.

Biotech & Pharma:

  • KURA reported no cases of differentiation syndrome, a closely tracked side effect, in a new study that combines its experimental menin inhibitor, called ziftomenib, with chemotherapy in patients with acute myeloid leukemia.
  • PFE said on track to deliver at least $4 billion in annual net cost savings by end of 2024; reaffirms full-year 2024 guidance of revenues of $58.5B-$61.5B and adj EPS of $2.05-$2.25; said 4Q Paxlovid revenues declined $5.0 billion, to $3.1 billion, compared with the prior-year quarter.
  • RCUS announced a $320M equity investment from GILD along with multiple Phase 3 program updates; the two companies are jointly developing an anti-TIGIT antibody for cancer.
  • REGN announced the formation of Regeneron Cell Medicines based on an agreement with TSVT to acquire full development and commercialization rights to its pipeline of investigational novel immune cell therapies, along with its Discovery and clinical manufacturing capabilities.
  • VRTX said VX-548, significantly outperformed placebo in studies enrolling patients with acute pain following surgery. The drug missed its secondary goal of proving superior to a combination of acetaminophen and hydrocodone, a commonly prescribed opioid.

Healthcare Services & MedTech movers:

  • In Hospitals Providers: HCA guided FY24 EPS $19.70-$21.20 above consensus $19.51 and sees FY24 revenue $67.75B-$70.25B, above consensus $67.56B, helping boost hospital stocks.
  • In Life Sciences: DHR said it expects 2024 core revenue will be down low-single digits y/y while posted Q4 EPS and revs that topped consensus ($2.09/$6.41B vs. est. $1.91/$6.12B).
  • In Medical Equipment: MASI was downgraded from Buy to Hold at Jefferies while raise tgt to $121 from $107 saying they think the worst is behind the company following a challenging ’23 that included multiple downward revisions. The firm now sees a lot of good news baked in and is moving to the sidelines based on valuation.


  • In Freight/Delivery: UPS Q4 adj EPS $2.47 vs. est. $2.46; Q4 revs $24.9B miss consensus $25.45B; raises quarterly dividend to $1.63 per share; sees FY24 revenue $92B-$94.5B below consensus $95.57B; sees FY24 consolidated adjusted operating margin to range from approximately 10.0% to 10.6%; said to cut 12,000 positions for $1B cost reduction; says accounted for 11.8% of revenue in 2023.
  • In Airlines: JBLU forecast a fall in revenue and higher costs in Q1 as it grapples with uneven travel demand; said it will defer about $2.5 billion in planned aircraft capital expenditure to 2028 and later.

Industrial, Aerospace & Defense

  • BA withdrew a minor request it had made to the Federal Aviation Administration about the 737 MAX 7, which remains grounded; the change will likely impact when Boeing can deliver planes to airlines.
  • CACI gets $81M order to support defense intelligence agency.
  • JCI lowered its full-year profit expectations to $3.60-$3.75 from $3.65-$3.80 prior; Q1 revs of $6.09B missed.
  • NOC announces $1B accelerated share repurchase agreement.
  • PLOW shares fall as reports Q4 adj EPS $0.19/$134M below the $0.59/$178.8M consensus; sees 2023 adjusted EPS $1.01, below consensus $1.41 and revs $568M vs. est. $612.7M.
  • WWD shares jumped after boosted its full-year profit and sales outlook; Q1 profit and sales also beat estimates.
  • Home builders MDC, PHM, and NVR all reported quarterly results in the homebuilder sector.

Materials, Metals & Mining

  • In Metals: CLF 4Q EBITDA of $279M vs. the Street’s $281M; EPS loss of $0.05 compared to the Street’s breakeven, 4Q revenue was ~$5.1B (vs. $5.6B in 3Q23) and steel shipments were ~4.0M tons (vs. >4.1M in 3Q23). NUE Q4 EPS of $3.16 well above both the Street’s $2.92 estimate and the guidance range of $2.75-$2.85 provided in mid-December. EBITDA of $1.35B was largely in line with the $1.36B estimate. From a segment perspective, 4Q23 Steel Mills EBIT of $588M beat KeyBanc $537M estimate on slightly better spreads.


  • MSFT, GOOGL, AMD, SWKS, EA among tech names reporting tonight.
  • In Media: SPOT was upgraded from Neutral to Buy at UBS and raised tgt to $274 from $170 as thinks efficiency initiative remains the focus and have increased conviction on sustainable margin expansion and stronger bottom-line trends in the coming years.
  • In Hardware: AAPL shares weaker after influential analyst Ming-Chi Kuo said latest supply chain survey indicates that Apple has lowered its 2024 iPhone shipments of key upstream semiconductor components to about 200 million units, or down 15% year-over-year. Apple may have the most significant decline among the major global mobile phone brands in 2024.
  • In the EMS Sector: shares of CLS and SANM both jump following better earnings and guidance; CLS Q4 adj EPS $0.76 vs. est. $0.68; Q4 revs $2.14B vs. est. $2.08B; sees Q1 adj EPS $0.67-$0.77 vs. est. $0.60 and sees Q1 revenue $2.025B-$2.175B above consensus $1.99B; raises FY24 adjusted free cash flow view to $200M or more. SANM Q1 adj EPS $1.30 vs es.t $1.22 on revs $1.875B vs est. $1.87B, adj pre-tax ROIC 22.7%; guides Q2 revs $1.825-1.925B vs est. $1.803B and adj EPS $1.20-1.30 vs est. $1.09 (shares of FLEX, JBL, BHE were active in sympathy).
  • In Comm and Networking: CALX shares tumbled after softer guidance offset Q4 beat; sees Q1 EPS $0.17-$0.23 below consensus $0.38 and revs $225M-$231M vs. est. $267.57M. FFIV shares a better fate, rising after quarterly results and guidance topped consensus expectations. HLIT reported 4Q results last night with beats on the top and bottom line driven by the Broadband segment which hit a record sale of $115.2M but ’24 guidance came in well below the Street’s view implying that Comcast and Charter will be softer going forward as per Jefferies.
  • In Electrical Equipment & Parts: GLW reported in-line quarterly results while Q1 core EPS and sales came in slightly below consensus; ST upgraded to Outperform at Oppenheimer and introducing $50 PT which focuses on significant ramp in new business wins over the past several years, capital allocation pivot to debt reduction, and solid positioning for margin performance.


  • AMD downgraded by Raymond James on valuation to buy from strong buy (note earnings are expected tonight).
  • SLAB announced it is delaying its earnings results by a week to next Wednesday, February 7, as it has determined there is a material weakness in internal control related to the documentation of certain inventory controls.
  • SMCI shares jumped as delivered modest upside to the notable beat they preannounced earlier this month, while guided for significant sequential growth through the end of their fiscal year (~8% Q/Q in Q3 and 23% in Q4) to get to the midpoint of guidance.


Market commentary provided by Hammerstone Markets, Inc, a firm separate from and not affiliated with Regal Securities. Regal Securities has not participated in the creation of the content, and does not explicitly or implicitly endorse the content.