Market Review: June 21, 2024

Closing Recap

Friday, June 21, 2024





DJ Industrials




S&P 500








Russell 2000













U.S. stocks did a whole lot of nothing today, led by a further pullback in technology stocks after yesterday’s drawdown on profit taking, bounced by midday as the S&P and Nasdaq each inched into positive territory, but ended little changed on the day heading into the weekend and key PCE inflation data next week. The fact that today was triple witching option expiration and index rebalances played no role in market volatility. Market breadth was slightly negative with weakness in energy, financials, industrials and utilities while consumer discretionary, communications, and healthcare edged higher. Bitcoin prices hit 5-week lows, while the dollar edged higher on the day/week after PMI manufacturing data, and gold prices rolled. Looking ahead, several key inflation reports expected the tail end of week (Thursday and Friday) with Q1 GDP on 6/27 with Q1 PCE and then monthly PCE and core PCE inflation data on Friday 6/28 on last day of month, quarter, and 1H. Also next week, the first Presidential debate between Biden and Trump, with new rules instituted. After touching fresh record highs this past Tuesday for the S&P and Nasdaq, major averages a little bit of sideways trading the last few days, but managed weekly wins. In an interesting stat regarding the housing market: @charliebilello noted “4 years ago: 30-yr mortgage rate was 3.1% & median existing home price in the US was $284k. Today: 30-yr mortgage rate is 6.9% & median home price is $419k. Result: $27k increase in down payment (20% down) and 128% increase in monthly payment (from $970 to $2,208).”

Economic Data

  • S&P Global June flash services PMI at 55.1 (vs 54.8 in May), S&P Global June flash composite PMI at 54.6 (vs 54.5 in May), S&P Global June flash manufacturing PMI at 51.7 (vs 51.3 in May).
  • Existing Home Sales for May fall -0.7% M/M to 4.11M unit rate vs. consensus 4.10M and vs April 4.14M; inventory of homes for sale jumped in May, up 6.7% month-to-month and 18.5% higher than May of last year; May national median home price for existing homes $419,300 (a record high price in the Realtors’ recording), +5.8% Y/Y.
  • Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) falls (-0.5%) vs. consensus (-0.3%); only two of the last 27-months have been positive (Feb of 2024 and Feb 2022).
  • Eurozone June Flash Composite PMI at 50.8 vs. 52.2 in May; Eurozone Flash Services PMI 52.6 vs. 53.2 in May and the Eurozone June Flash Manufacturing PMI at 45.6 vs. 47.3 in May. French Flash PMI reported at 48.2 vs estimate 49.6 and German Flash PMI at 50.6 vs. est. 52.4.
  • U.K. consumer confidence improved slightly in June as research group GfK’s consumer-confidence barometer climbed to minus 14 in May, the highest since November 2021, from minus 17 in April, it said Friday. The reading bettered consensus of minus 16 from economists polled.
  • Japan’s annual CPI for May was lower than expected, but a lift from last month on all items CPI from 2.5% to 2.8%, and on core (ex: fresh food) from 2.2% to 2.5%, while core-core (ex: fresh food & energy) eased from 2.4% to 2.1%.

Commodities, Currencies & Treasuries

  • U.S. crude oil futures reversed lower, falling -$0.56 or 0.69 to settle at $80.73 per barrel after holding near a seven-week high earlier while Brent Crude futures settle at $85.24/bbl, down 47 cents, 0.55%, as the market balanced signs of improving U.S. demand and falling oil and fuel inventories versus a stronger U.S. dollar. For the week, crude rose 3.73%. Nymex natural gas fell 6.11% this week to settle at $2.7050 mln Btus.
  • Treasury yields turned higher Friday, reversing prior declines after a string of economic data, including purchasing managers index readings that pointed to strengthening activity in the U.S. economy. The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose 0.6 basis points to 4.269% and was higher on the week.
  • Gold prices slumped on Friday as Aug gold declined -$37.80 or 1.6% to settle at $2,331.20 an ounce, ending the week slightly lower, reversing course from earlier in the session after the dollar strengthened on stronger U.S. business activity data. The S&P Global U.S. Composite Purchasing Managers Index–which gauges activity in the manufacturing and services sectors–reached a 26-month high in June. On Thursday, the precious metal had risen on disappointing U.S. economic data, which heightened market expectations that the Fed may soon initiate lower rates.
  • The U.S. dollar rises for a 5th straight week, up again today after the better flash PMI data in the U.S. (vs. weaker PMI readings in Eurozone, France, Germany). The S&P Global flash June business activity index for service providers edged up to the highest since April 2022. The dollar/yen rose above the 159 mark this week. The outcome of France’s snap election had weighed on the euro in recent weeks, coupled with weaker manufacturing data.





WTI Crude















10-Year Note




Sector News Breakdown

Retail, Consumer Staples & Restaurants:

  • In Retailers: NKE was upgraded to Outperform from Perform at Oppenheimer and raise tgt to $120 from $110 (ahead of earnings next week on 6/27) and was also mentioned positively in Barron’s saying shares of the athletic shoemaker have fallen, but the arrival of the Olympics could signal that a turnaround is set to begin. AMZN plans to revamp its Alexa service includes a conversational generative AI with two tiers of service, Reuters reported. Gun maker SWBI Q4 EPS and revs topped consensus, while CEO noted despite the highly competitive environment in traditionally slower summer season, co expects to continue growing on overall healthy demand in fiscal 2025.
  • In Consumer Staples: Carlsberg (CABGY) shares declined after U.K. soft-drinks maker Britvic (BVIC) rejected an improved offer that valued it at the equivalent of $3.9 billion

Autos, Leisure, Gaming & Lodging:

  • In Autos: used car retailer KMX reported Q1 revs fell -7.5% y/y to $7.11B missing the est. $7.2B and down from $7.69B a year ago while an about 33% dip in Q1 profit, as lower margins from vehicles sold continued to impact the used-vehicle industry; said Q1 retail used unit sales decreased 3.1% and comparable store used unit sales decreased 3.8% from prior year’s Q1. HTZ increased its previous offering and now plans to raise $1 billion through senior secured notes (had unveiled its plans to raise $750 million through a two-part note offering on Thursday).  In Chine electric vehicles (LI, NIO, XPEV), Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government is preparing potential new tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles to align Canada with actions taken by the US and European Union, Bloomberg reported.
  • In Gaming/Casino: BYD has approached PENN to express interest in acquiring its peer in a potential combination that has a market value of more than $9B, including debt, Reuters reported. Boyd would also need to win over DIS, which through its sports network ESPN has a partnership w/Penn

Energy, Industrials and Materials

  • In Aerospace & Defense: Reuters reported BA is nearing a deal to acquire SPR after its former subsidiary made substantial progress in separate talks with EADSY over a transatlantic breakup . China has imposed sanctions against some LMT subsidiaries and senior executives over U.S. arms sales to Taiwan. NOC was downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Bernstein with a $477 price target saying the catalysts for investors will come later and the B-21 program will lose money on low-rate initial production contracts through 2030.
  • In Metals & Mining: Morgan Stanley with several rating changes as FCX upgraded to OW from EW (tgt to $62 from $49.50) on better gold outlook, possible Grasberg extension, AA upgraded to OW from EW (tgt to $50 from $36.50) on self-help boosted by elevated alumina/ aluminum pricing; BVN upgraded to OW from EW (tgt to $21 from $19) on strategic investor further supporting operational turnaround, and Ivanhoe Mines (IVPAF) downgraded to EW from OW (raise tgt to C$19.50) to take profits following a strong move that has led to a more balanced risk reward. Morgan says Met coal becomes MSCO’s commodity team’s top pick given tightening supply, followed by iron ore as seaborne supply soon passes peak growth and the steel stock cycle turns after the summer.
  • In Materials, Industrial/Distribution: Oppenheimer defended shares of RRX and WCC saying they think recent sector volatility partially induced by guidance reductions from LECO and MSM is overdone as the cuts are fairly narrow-scope, more company specific; says the firm analysis suggests short-cycle is okay. Lithium producer ALB hit fresh 52-week lows of $92.29 before bouncing; came into day with 10-day losing streak

Banks, Brokers, Asset Managers:

  • In Crypto: Bitcoin prices fell as low as $63,200, the lowest level in 5-weeks before paring losses, dragging down other crypto names/miners (COIN, MARA, RIOT, CLSK, IREN); MSTR tgt was raised to $1,880 from $1,450 at TD Cowen following last week’s convertible notes offering, MicroStrategy has acquired another 12,000 bitcoins for $786M at an average price of $65,883; HUT price target raised to $17 from $12 at Benchmark.
  • In Lending/Finance: TREE had a unit hacked; stolen data being offered on dark web per Bloomberg noting that Snowflake (SNOW) had notified the company of the potential breach. Bloomberg reported that China is pushing for Visa (V) and MA to lower their bank card transaction fees in the country to encourage spending by foreign visitors. The Payment & Clearing Association of China is proposing lowering the fees charged on foreign card transactions to 1.5% from between 2% and 3%.
  • In Financial Services: FDS reported Q3 adj EPS $4.37 topping the $3.90 consensus on in-line revs of $552.7M saying its annual Subscription Value plus professional services was $2,219.2M at May 31, 2024, compared with $2,120.1M at May 31, 2023; raises 2024 adjusted EPS view $16.00-$16.40 from $15.60-$16.00 (est. $15.98); SQSP announced an agreement to sell Tock, the reservation, table, and event management technology provider, to AXP for $400 million.
  • In Banks/Brokers/Exchanges: CME was downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JP Morgan and cut tgt to $187 from $206 noting that FMX is entering the U.S. interest rate futures market in late summer and will compete with CME in its flagship futures contracts; firm sees FMX as a credible new entrant. US Federal Reserve: US bank regulators identify shortcomings in ‘living wills’ from BAC, C, GS and JPM; Fed says banks must address shortcomings in next resolution plan submission due in July 2025. Regulators have told banks to fix issues around how the banks would unwind derivatives portfolios during resolution.

Biotech & Pharma:

  • GILD rises after late-stage study showed its injectable drug, lenacapavir, was more effective in preventing HIV infection in women versus its existing daily pill Truvada.
  • SRPT shares surged after the FDA approved an expanded indication for its Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) treatment Elevidys. The drug was approved for ambulatory and non-ambulatory people, ages 4 and above, with a confirmed mutation in the DMD gene.
  • CTLT moves higher after SRPT Elevidys label expansion – earlier, RBC Capital said "believes this takes a binomial risk off the table (that Elevidys could be pulled from the market) and helps to firm up Catalent’s downside valuation.
  • SHCR entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired by an affiliate of Altaris, LLC, an investment firm exclusively focused on the healthcare industry as Sharecare stockholders will receive $1.43 in cash per share.
  • Zeal Pharma (ZLDPF) shares rose after positive topline data from a weight loss drug trial; phase 1B study with drug Petrelintide, a long-acting amylin analog, showed weight loss of 8.6% after 16 weeks of doses.
  • In Hospitals (THC, UHS, CYH, HCA): TD Cowen said May hospital revenue growth of +5.7% decelerated 360bp sequentially. Adding back an estimated -1.8% y/y calendar headwind, +7.5% y/y adj-growth accelerated 300bp seq. This sequential dichotomy will allow the cost-trend debate to continue but note the 3month moving averages of both reported and adjusted trend have decelerated (230)/ (200bp) from their respective February and December highs.
  • In MedTech: Goldman Sachs said following a survey of 36 interventional cardiologists and independent channel checks, the firm reiterates their bullish view on the structural heart market, Goldman said growth drivers in structural heart are poised to transition from transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) to transcatheter mitral and tricuspid therapies (TMTT) where they see EW best positioned with ABT as a secondary beneficiary.
  • In Insulin/Diabetes Sector: watch shares of DXCM, PODD, TNDM, SRRK, GILD and others ahead of the American Diabetes Association’s (ADA) 84th Scientific Sessions taking place in Orlando, Florida this weekend from June 21-24.


  • In Semiconductors: Philly semi index (SOX) fell as low as 5,482 after hitting record highs 5,792 on Tuesday, pulling back the last few days on profit taking behind drops in NVDA, ARM, AVGO, QCOM, MU and other big winners in 2024 (prices recovered back near break-even above 5,600 by midday before fading); MU ests raised at Wolfe ahead of 6/26 earnings report saying near-term conditions are not the reason for our bullish view but rather the company’s EPS power longer-term – and see a plausible case to $20 EPS, with our $200 PT reflecting 10x that EPS power. STM announces completion of its 2021 share buy-back programs and launch of a new 3 year $1,100M share buy-back plan in 2024.
  • In Software: PLTR was downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Monness Crespi with $20 tgt citing the stock’s "gluttonous valuation" for the downgrade following a “dismal" earnings season for enterprise software. ASAN announces $150M stock buyback; affirms FY25 revenue $719M-$724M, vs. consensus $723.2M; affirms FY25 Non-GAAP operating loss of $59M-$55M.


Market commentary provided by Hammerstone Markets, Inc, a firm separate from and not affiliated with Regal Securities. Regal Securities has not participated in the creation of the content, and does not explicitly or implicitly endorse the content.