Closing Recap

Friday, June 27, 2025

Index	Up/Down	%	Last
DJ Industrials	431.26	0.99%	43,818
S&P 500	31.95	0.52%	6,173
Nasdaq	105.54	0.52%	20,273
Russell 2000	-2.89	-0.13%	2,169

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

US equity futures posted small gains overnight on easing China trade tensions ahead of this morning’s important Core PCE data. While Core and SuperCore PCE came in just slightly hotter than anticipated, equity futures initially traded off less than 10bps on the release. Fed rate cut probabilities dipped slightly from 81% to 79% for September but expectations for three cuts in 2025 ticked higher. The year-end implied rate dipped slightly to 3.677% while the October 2026 implied rate moved lower to 3.023%.  Equities continued to ease slightly but remained in the green into the open before rebounding and holding higher on University of Michigan data with the one-year and five-year inflation outlooks slightly better than forecasts. By mid-morning, equities were trading at all-time highs with bread of almost 2:1 favoring advancers as small caps outperformed with IWM (+0.71%) versus SPY (+0.57%) and QQQ (+0.55%). On a sector basis, Consumer Discretionary (+1.17%), Real Estate (+1.06%) and Industrials (+0.98%) were outperformers, while Materials (+0.36%), Health Care (+0.28%) and Energy (-0.43%) led the underperformers with only Energy in the red. Today’s Fear & Greed Index remained in the Greed column at 66/100 compared to last week’s 56 (Greed) and last month’s 65 (Greed).

 

In data of note, UBS Global Wealth Management raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 Index to $6,200 from $6,000 on expectations of easing trade tensions. They expect most large-cap companies to weather the tariffs fairly well. As it stands, it appears UBS picked a good day with both the SPX and Nasdaq hitting new all-time highs intraday. Previous highs were set on February 19^th and December 16^th, respectively. Also on the S&P, @charliebilello noted the new high represents a 28% rally off the April lows. On PCE and the Fed, @KobeissiLetter noted while PCE was in-line with expectations at +2.3% and Core PCE was only slightly above at +2.7%, PCE inflation is now rising for the first time since February and is likely to keep the Fed on hold. Lastly, @RyanDetrick put today’s new highs in context, noting today marks the 1,245^th new all-time high since 1957, or a new high every 14 trading days.

 

Heading into the last hour of trading for the week, US equities had dipped from all-time highs to trading in the red. Early headlines indicating the US and EU expect to resolve their tariff dispute by the July 9^th deadline helped fuel early gains but later headlines on Trump terminating all trade discussions with Canada, effective immediately, more than unwound the market strength. All-in, it was a fairly quiet day for a pre-market PCE data day. As equities dipped, breadth reversed also to favor decliners by about 3:2 as small caps underperformed in the afternoon with IWM (-0.52%) versus SPY (-0.11%) and QQQ (-0.23%). Sector performance was somewhat less negatively impacted, moving to six up versus five down with Industrials (+0.48%), Consumer Discretionary (+0.35%) and Consumer Staples (+0.32%) outperforming while Materials (-0.26%), Technology (-0.51%) and Energy (-0.98%) underperformed. With a late push, the S&P and Nasdaq each hit a new closing high.

 

• US Core PCE yr/yr +2.7% versus +2.6% forecast and +2.5% prior.
• US SuperCore PCE mo/mo +0.2% versus prior +0.1%.
• US Personal Income mo/mo -0.4% versus +0.3% forecast and +0.8% prior.
• US Real Personal Consumption mo/mo -0.3% versus 0.0% forecast and +0.1% prior.
• University of Michigan Sentiment, June-final 60.7 versus 60.5 forecast and 60.5 prior.
• University of Michigan 1-yr and 5-yr inflation expectations, June-final; one-year 5.0% versus 5.2% forecast; five-year 4.0% versus 4.1% forecast.

• August WTI crude extended recent gains overnight then eased on headlines indicating OPEC+ was set to discuss another, “super-sized oil output increase.” An afternoon rally brought August futures back into positive territory before settling up $0.28/bbl, or +0.43%, at $65.52.

 

Macro	Up/Down	Last
WTI Crude	0.28	65.52
Brent	0.04	67.77
Gold	-60.50	3,302.30
EUR/USD	0.0014	1.17
JPY/USD	0.34	144.70
10-Year Note	0.03	4.283%

 

Sector News Breakdown

Consumer

Autos:

• Toyota Motor North America TM reported May 2025 U.S. sales of 229,165 vehicles, a 10.8% increase on a volume basis and a 14.9% increase on a daily selling rate (DSR) basis compared to May 2024.
• GM F STLA auto stocks declined after Trump announced the termination of trade talks with Canada.
• TechCrunch reported that they are hearing TSLA is planning another round of layoffs.
• F CEO Farley states in an interview: “We have shut plants last three weeks due to magnet shortage.”

 

Retail, Consumer Staples & Restaurants:

• NKE shares were +15% in midday trading following last night’s Q4 Earnings with a revenue beat, EPS beat, and this key piece of guidance from the company: headwinds expected to move forward moderately. Nike was upgraded to Buy at HSBC and price targets were raised across the street.
• Shares of ONON moved higher in sympathy with NKE.
• Chinese discount retailer Shein to file confidential draft prospectus for Hong Kong IPO, sources note; expected to be made by Monday per Reuters.
• NBA and SKX to collaborate to launch season two of hoop nation docuseries in India.
• UNFI shares moved upward after a late 8-K on Thursday announcing that they have “safely restored their core systems.”
• WMT opened their first owned and operated case-ready beef facility in Olathe, Kansas to create over 600 jobs.
• Safety Shot (SHOT) completes the acquisition of Yerbae Brands Corp.
• McGraw Hill intends to list its Common Stock on the NYSE under the ticker symbol “MH.”
• AOUT shares fell despite reporting a Q4 EPS and revenue beat; however, the co. suspended previously issued FY26 net sales guidance, saying it reflected prudence amid tariffs not a change in conviction.

Homebuilders, Building Products, Home Furnishing:

• GNTX launched place smart home safety system.

 

Leisure, Gaming & Lodging:

• NCLH announced it successfully upsized its existing senior secured revolving credit facility from $1.7B to $2.486B, with the existing terms and maturity date of 2030 unchanged.
• MGM announced that its subsidiary, MGM Yonkers, submitted a commercial casino license application in New York with a $2.3B proposal to transform its historic Empire City Casino site into a commercial casino and entertainment destination.

 

Energy

• TTE has strategically acquired a 25% stake in Suriname’s offshore Block 53 from Moeve, solidifying its position in the GranMorgu project. Later, it was reported that TTE received offers for its Argentina shale oil assets.
• MEOH announced today that it has completed the previously announced acquisition of OCI Global’s international methanol business.
• GEV PWR MTZ ETN CEG shares showed strength (pre-Trump Canada remarks) Trump’s executive order announcement to ramp up power supplies to aid AI.
• MRC and DNOW shares moved skyward after MRC Global and DNOW announced that they would combine in an all-stock transaction valued at ~$1.5B.
• Shares of asset manager BEN rose after being upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman Sachs.

Bitcoin, FinTech, Payments:

• V and MA’s merchant fees breach competition law, UK tribunal rules.
• CBRG Announced an individual retirement VA transaction with Venerable valued at $2.8B, consisting of both ceding commission and capital release, and will generate ~$2.1B of net distributable proceeds after-tax for Corebridge. CRBG board has also authorized a $2B increase to the company’s share buyback program.

 

REITs:

• Kennedy Wilson’s (KW) investment management platform acquires 700 units across two western U.S. multifamily communities for $166M.
• BX bought nearly $2B worth of commercial real estate loans from AUB.

Healthcare

Biotech & Pharma:

• BCRX announced sale of European orladeyo® (berotralstat) business to neopharmed gentili for up to $264M
• INMB shares spiked as high as +85% on this PR: will host a conference call on Monday, June 30 beginning at 8:00am EDT to present top line data from the Phase 2 MINDFuL trial in early Alzheimer’s Disease.” Shares slid to -10% after a noontime announcement of a $19M registered direct offering priced at-the-market.
• BBLG shares moved higher after filing a patent application for bone regeneration technology.
• SDGR received fast track designation for SGR-1505 for the treatment of relapsed/refractory waldenstr�m macroglobulinemia after showing favorable safety profile in initial data.
• RARE received breakthrough therapy designation for gtx-102 in angelman syndrome
  Ultragenyx pharmaceutical Inc – receives FDA breakthrough therapy designation for GTX-102.
• NBIX presented new post-hoc data analyses from Kinect®-hd study demonstrating significant reduction in disease burden with ingrezza® (valbenazine) capsules for huntington’s disease chorea.
• CLMD announced they were expanding the global clinical trial targeting multibillion-dollar alcohol use disorder market.
• BIIB announced new data for nusinersen; stated that the safety profile of higher dose regimen of nusinersen is broadly consistent with known safety profile of 12 mg spinraza.
• LEGN shares lifted after news that the FDA approved sBLA for Carvykti; removes REMS.

 

 

Healthcare Services & MedTech movers:

• TDOC shares experienced an early rise following a bullish post from Citron Research.
• U.S. Supreme Court rules in favor of Obamacare task force that helps ensure no-cost preventive care, a positive for EXAS & GILD

 

Aerospace & Defense

• GD was awarded a $1.85B Contract Modification from U.S. Navy, reported last night.
• AVAV shares were slightly higher after last night’s PR: AV’s Wildcat Reaches Key Milestones in DARPA’s ANCILLARY Program’s EVADE Demonstration.

• Materials, Metals & Mining

• VALE’s CEO stated that iron ore prices being impacted by uncertainties and geopolitical issues, but demand remains firm.
• Domestic rare earth miners moved lower following confirmation of agreement between China, US on trade framework details this morning. MP

Technology

Internet, Media & Telecom

• META may face daily fines over pay-or-consent model, EU warns per Reuters. Meta says EU antitrust regulators are discriminating against its business model.
• CMCSA to Sell Sky Deutschland to Bertelsmann’s RTL Group.
• VNET shares rose after announcing authorization of share repurchase program up to $50m.
• SNAP shares rallied on a positive mention by the boutique research shop Edgewater.
• BABA unveiled its latest AI service for images which enables users to generate and modify images from texts and visuals.
• SATS shares soared after confirming President Trump encouraged company, FCC chair to reach deal over fate of company’s wireless spectrum licenses.
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Hardware & Software movers:

• ORCL AMZN  NVDA Trump plans executive orders to power AI growth in race with China per Reuters; EO’s could target grid connection delays, offer federal land for data centers.
• DeepSeek faces expulsion from AAPL and GOOGL app stores in Germany.

 

Semiconductors:

• The Information wrote that “MSFT’s next-generation Maia AI chip has been delayed from 2025 to 2026 due to changes to the chip’s design, staff constraints and high turnover contributed to the delay. The chip will fall short of comparable NVDA chips in power efficiency.