Mid-Morning Look

Monday, April 01, 2024

U.S. stocks mixed to start Q2, with early leaders in Technology (XLK) and Communications (XLC), both up over +0.5%, while overall NYSE breadth more than 2-1 decliners leading advancers as most other sectors in the “red” following stronger ISM data/rise in prices paid. The S&P 500 was up for a fifth straight month in March, up for fifth time in last six quarters and up over 10% for a second straight quarter. Like the S&P 500, the Nasdaq Composite has also been up for five straight months, and off to a good start for Q2 as big tech leading with GOOGL, AMZN, META, MSFT, NFLX strong, along with semi (SOX) index strength (SOX now up 2.5% at 5,025), led by usual suspects NVDA, AMD, AVGO, SMCI, equipment names KLAC, LRCX, AMAT, and memory names MU. U.S. listed China stocks (BABA, BIDU, PDD) advanced following strong PMI data out of China overnight. Bonds are very weak as Treasury yields extend gains, with the 10-yr at highs above 4.305% up 11-bps and 2-yr +3.5bps to 4.655%.

Data helping boost sentiment as the Feb PCE data (released Friday morning) signaled strong consumption—real spending +0.4% m/m. Inflation data were in line with expectations, easing acceleration concerns. Next major economic data points focus back to jobs with JOLTs job openings Tuesday, ADP private payrolls Wednesday, weekly jobless claims Thursday and Nonfarm payrolls on Friday 4/5.  Japan lagged while China outperformed overnight while European markets closed for holiday. Commodity prices higher with gold hitting fresh all-time highs, while crude oil has now had its third consecutive monthly gain amid signs of improving demand, geopolitical tensions, and OPEC production cuts. Technology remains underpinned by strong earnings (Big 6 tech+ names delivered nearly 70% EPS growth in 4Q23, per UBS) and leverage to Gen AI proliferation theme.

• Feb construction spending declines (-0.3%) vs. consensus +0.7% and vs January (-0.2%); Feb private construction spending unchanged, public spending -1.2%.

• In Transports: UPS to replace FDX as the U.S. Postal Service’s (USPS) primary air cargo provider as the 22-year contract with USPS set to expire on Sept. 29. Last week, UPS unveiled a three-year plan prioritizing high-margin parcels and aggressive cost-cutting. In truckers, CHRW, JBHT, WERN all downgraded to EW from OW at Barclay’s saying “weak bid season results" will likely result in volume challenges for J.B. Hunt, softer margins for Werner and growth headwinds for C.H. Robinson.

• GES +5%; board approved a new $200 mln share repurchase program and announces issuance of ~$12.1 mln of additional 3.75% convertible notes due 2028.
• LQDA +8%; new drug application for Yutrepia was cleared for potential approval from the FDA following a court ruling in a lawsuit filed by UTHR.
• MMM +2%; completed the planned spin-off of its healthcare business Solventum, launched as an independent company, listed on the New York Stock Exchange under SOLV. MMM also announces settlement with Public Water Suppliers to Address PFAS in Drinking Water Receives Final Court Approval.
• MU +7%; among leaders in the semiconductor index (SOX) which rose over 2% topping 5,000 on rotation back into the sector as the new quarter gets underway.

• FDX -2%; after news that rival UPS will replace the company as the U.S. Postal Service’s (USPS) primary air cargo provider as the 22-year contract with USPS set to expire on Sept. 29. Last week, UPS unveiled a three-year plan prioritizing high-margin parcels and aggressive cost-cutting.  
• IRON -56%; after saying phase 2 study of its Bitopertin drug candidate in patients with a rare, inherited metabolic disorder met its main goal but missed a key secondary target (didn’t meet statistical significance compared to placebo due to an outsized placebo response).
• MSTR -4%; extends last week’s losses after Kerrisdale Capital call last week saying they were short shares vs. long Bitcoin as the BTC price implied in MSTR shares is now over an unjustifiable 2.6x the spot price of BTC.
• OXM -9%; 4Q revenue and adj. EPS within prior ranges; FY24 guide expects sales growth of MSD% for Tommy and Lilly, and LDD% for Johnny and Emerging Brands; mgmt noted softness in trends in Jan and Feb due to muted consumer sentiment and cycling strong comps LY, but noted March has been comping modestly positive to date.
• T -2%; said personal data from ~7.6M current account holders and 65.4M former customers was leaked onto the dark web; the data, which was leaked about two weeks ago, includes personal info such as Social Security #s and appears to be from 2019 or earlier; T says the event hasn’t had a material effect on operations
• WBA -4%; as healthcare service names weak in the S&P (UHS also down over 4%).