Mid-Morning Look

Wednesday, April 21, 2021

S&P looks to avoid its first three-day loss since the beginning of March (2^nd-4^th), as major averages recover from their biggest two-day declines in over a month, getting a boost from another round of better earnings results and a bounce in reopen stock sectors (airlines, cruise, hotels). The reopen trade declined sharply on Tuesday amid a resurgence of Covid infections in parts of Asia and South America, renewing concerns of tighter restrictions and impacts to economies – but seeing strength early. Tech mixed as Netflix shares slide following weaker sub outlook, but outside of earnings, financial news once again quiet overnight with no major catalysts to speak of. No major economic data expected today in the U.S. and Fed speakers remain quiet after weeks of promises to keep rates at record lows for a long time and said not afraid to let the economy run “hot.” Asia finished mostly lower (Shanghai flat/Hang Seng -1.76%/Nikkei -2.03%) on follow through from the move in the U.S. yesterday and reports that Tokyo and Osaka are likely to come under state of emergencies after surges in covid cases – while after back-to-back 2% declines, the Nikkei is right at the bottom of its three-month range. Gold prices extend recent gains as the dollar bounces and Treasury yields remain lower.

Sector Movers Today

·     Healthcare Services; UNH upgraded to Buy with $450 tgt at Argus reflecting robust membership growth in its managed care businesses and a solid backlog in the Optum segment, UNH has raised its 2021 guidance; in managed care as well, ANTM reported 1Q results, with revenue light of consensus ($32.1B vs. $32.97B) though EPS beat ($7.01 vs. $6.38), with a solid beat on Benefit Expense (85.6% vs. 87.7% cons) and raised its ’21 EPS guidance in hospitals, THC posted Q1 EPS beat which reflected strong pricing despite sequentially lower volumes across the enterprise and raised FY21 revenue and EBITDA guidance by $200mn (+1%) and $100mn (+3%) at the midpoint, respectively; in the dental industry, Credit Suisse raises price tgts for NVST to $49 (from $46), ALGN to $693 (from $630), XRAY to $71 (from $66), HSIC to $75 (from $74), and PDCO to $41 (from $40) on greater conviction in growth prospects across the industry based on our survey

·     Energy stock movers; group was pressured on Tuesday as attention turned to earnings and inventory data this morning; in oil services; two major names report today (HAL, BKR) as each said North American oil markets were showing signs of recovery as both beat expectations for first-quarter earnings, while revenue was down year on year for both companies as oil and gas customers remain committed to lower spending; HAL EPS of 19c beat by 2c as revenue of $3.45B was up 6.6% from Q4 but down from $5B YoY (est. 43.36b); BKR Q1 EPS of 12c beat by a penny, while adj operating income fell to $270 million for the quarter from $462 million last quarter.

·     Utilities & Solar; KeyBanc downgraded POR and DTE to Sector Weight on valuation after both shares outperformed the S&P and UTY in Q1, also downgraded ES to Sector Weight on valuation as it is now trading above its historical premium to UTY, raised its price target on NWE to $72 as they see more room to run as it still trading at a historical discount to peers compared to its historical valuation, said PEG can trade higher as it goes through a strategic transition, and upgraded FE to OW with a $42 price target that implies shares moving above their range since last summer’s Ohio bribery scandal; Bank of America upgraded FSLR to Neutral with an $86 target; Truist upgraded BCEI to Buy and raised their price target to $40 from $30 as it trades at 2.5x 2022E EV/EBITDA vs small-cap peers at 4.4x despite generating 18% FCF/EV yield vs the group’s 9%; NEE reported Q1 adj EPS 67c vs est. 58c on revs $3.73B that widely missed est. $4.9B and fell from $4.61B YoY (down ~19%), the company’s first rev miss in 5 quarters, reiterated its FY21 EPS guidance $2.40-2.54, and said it expects to grow 6-8% in 2022 and 2023 from this year; NEP similarly beat on EPS ($2.66 vs est. $0.40) but missed on revs $246M vs est. $290.9M) and lifted its run rate for adj EBITDA in the upper end of its previously announced range $1.44-1.62B

·     Bank movers; SBNY posted Q1 EPS $3.24 vs. est. $2.85, book value per share $102.69, NII $406.5M (+16.7%), and deposits $73.97B, a $10/66B increase (+16.8%); FULT Q1 EPS 43c vs. est. 35c, NII $164M, Net interest margin 2.79% (vs 2.75% 4Q20); FHN Q1 adjusted EPS 51c beat consensus 37c, NII $508M vs $303M YoY; HWC recorded Q1 EPS $1.21 vs est. $0.97, NII $237.5M vs est. $233.8M, revs $321.6 vs est. $314.6M; BOKF Q1 EPS $2.10 vs est. $1.93 on revs $444.3M vs est. $470M, with NII $280.4M; PACW Q1 EPS $1.27 on sales $306.1M vs estimates 91c on $294.05M; UCBI Q1 EPS 83c on rev $189.1M that both topped consensus views; IBKR reported Q1 EPS 98c on revs $893M, both of which topped estimates (91c on $736.6M), customer accounts 1.33M (+74% YoY), total DARTs 3.31M (+128% YoY), and customer equity more than doubled YoY to $330.6B; NDAQ Q1 adj EPS $1.96 vs est. $1.73 on revs $851M vs est. $814.5M as its market services unit revenue jumped over 20% from last year to a record $338M and its listing services revenue grew 31% and also raised its quarterly dividend to 54c from 49c

Stock GAINERS

·     CSX +4%; upgraded to Outperform at BMO Capital after earnings – as EPS of 93c missed the 95c estimate while revenue fell 1% to $2.81B vs. est. $2.78B with intermodal revenue growth

·     EW +4%; delivered Q1 results ahead of consensus, noting a restart to more normalized patient flow and clinical trials as revs of $1.22B (up 5% ex-FX) exceeded consensus’s $1.16B, including TAVR revenue of $791.7M

·     IPAR +5%; as Q1 revenue $198.5M vs consensus $159.7M; guides FY EPS $1.65 vs prior $1.40-1.45 and consensus $1.47 and revenue ~$700M vs prior $650-660M

·     ISRG +5%; upgraded at both Baird and Oppenheimer as the co smashed 1Q estimates and reinstated guidance for first time since pandemic onset (revenues of $1.29B, ahead of our/consensus estimates of $1.20B/$1.11B, on OUS growth, especially in capital equipment)

·     NCLH +7%; upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman Sachs and raise tgt to $37 from $27 due to the company’s industry leading capacity growth, exposure to more aspirational consumers, and the longest liquidity runway

·     SBNY +6%; Q1 EPS $3.24 vs. est. $2.85; Q1 book value per share $102.69; Net interest income for the 2021 first quarter rose $58.2 million, or 16.7 percent to $406.5 million; Deposits for Q1 increased $10.66 billion or 16.8 percent to $73.97 billion

·     THC +4%; posted Q1 EPS beat which reflected strong pricing despite sequentially lower volumes across the enterprise and updated its FY21 revenue and EBITDA guidance higher

·     WBT +33%; as MIDD agreed to buy the fellow food-service-equipment maker in a stock swap valued at about $2.93 billion as it will issue 0.1240 share, valued at about $20.69 based on Tuesday’s closing price of $166.83 https://on.mktw.net/3gr3mLp

Stock LAGGARDS

·     DAL ; looking to snap its 10-day losing streak, as airlines in general remain weak (softer earnings over last week from UAL and DAL) – note today the IATA said it sees up to $48B 2021 airline industry loss vs. $38B

·     FCX -1%; cut to Neutral from Buy at UBS with a price target of $36, up from $30 citing valuation following the stock’s recent rally and SCCO downgraded to Sell from Neutral in anticipation of a rebalancing of the copper market into 2H21

·     HAL -4%; EPS of 19c beat by 2c as revenue of $3.45B was up 6.6% from Q4 but down from $5B YoY (est. $3.36N)/ said North American oil markets were showing signs of recovery

·     NFLX -8%; after subscriber growth fell short of expectations and predicted the current quarter would be challenging – expects to add just 1 mln new streaming customers in Q2, below Street expectations of nearly 4.8 mln (shares of DIS, FUBO, ROKU weak in sympathy)

·     NVR -3%; as top and bottom line Q1 results miss ests; Q1 EPS $63.21 vs. est. $63.01; Q1 sales $2.04B vs. est. $2.08B; Q1 orders rise by 26% to 6,314 units, vs. 5,015 units in 1Q20

Syndicate:

·     DoubleVerify (DV) 13.3M share IPO priced at $27.00

·     Futu Holdings (FUTU) 9.5M share Secondary priced at $130.00

·     Inotiv (NOTV) 2.647M share Spot Secondary priced at $17.00

·     SkyWater Technology (SKYT) 6.96M share IPO priced at $14.00

·     UiPath (PATH) 23.89M share IPO priced at $56.00

·     Zai Lab (ZLAB) 4.78M share Secondary priced at $150.00