Mid-Morning Look: August 12, 2022
Mid-Morning Look
Friday, August 12, 2022
Index |
Up/Down |
% |
Last |
|
||
DJ Industrials |
107.45 |
0.32% |
33,444 |
|||
S&P 500 |
21.77 |
0.52% |
4,229 |
|||
Nasdaq |
88.89 |
0.70% |
12,868 |
|||
Russell 2000 |
14.45 |
0.73% |
1,989 |
|||
U.S. stocks held overnight gains after import price data came in slightly better than expected. University of Michigan consumer sentiment data briefly rattled the equity complex, sending the Dollar higher and gold lower, but equities so far are still holding in the +50-75bps range. Through yesterday, the S&P and Dow indices were +2% on the week, while the NASDAQ was +1.5% for the week with both the S&P and NASDAQ on pace for their fourth consecutive weekly gains (the longest weekly streak since November 2021). Of note, BofA’s bull & bear indicator remains at “max bearish” for the 9th consecutive week, while Refinitiv Lipper data show U.S. equity funds notch biggest weekly inflows in seven weeks ($4.21B net purchases of U.S. equity funds).
Economic Data
· US import prices declined 1.4% in July vs expected -1.0%. The decline marked the first time we’ve seen a monthly dip since December 2021. It was also the largest import price drop since April 2020’s -2.6% mark. Of note, fuel import prices dropped 7.5% for the month, also marking the first decline of the year. The nonfuel import price index dipped by 0.5%, the third consecutive monthly decrease.
· US export prices slipped 3.3% in July vs expected -1.1%. The July move was a reversal from the +0.7% gain in June and marked the largest 1-month fall since April 2020’s -3.5%. Of note, the agricultural price index slipped by 3.0% in July after a modest -0.1% in June. The July agricultural index dip also marked the largest monthly fall since April 2020 (-3.5%). Nonagricultural industrial supplies and materials export prices slid by 7.0% in July, paced by a 12.3% slide in fuel prices.
· University of Michigan August preliminary consumer sentiment 55.1 vs expected 52.5. Sentiment gains were driven by the expectations component climbing to 54.9 vs an expected 48.4, while the current conditions index came in at 55.5 vs expected 59.0. While not typically as relevant as the spread on consumer confidence, it is interesting to note the sentiment spread slipped to just +0.6 from +10.8 for the July final. Recessions tend to be accompanied by negative spreads.
· University Michigan 1 Yr Inflation Prelim Actual 5.0% (Forecast 5.1%, Previous 5.2%)
· University Michigan 5 Yr Inflation Prelim Actual 3.0% (Forecast 2.8%, Previous 2.9%)
Macro |
Up/Down |
Last |
|
||
WTI Crude |
-2.08 |
92.30 |
|||
Brent |
0.73 |
11 |
|||
Gold |
1.1 |
1,808 |
|||
EUR/USD |
-0.0075 |
1.0247 |
|||
JPY/USD |
0.712 |
133.71 |
|||
10-Year Note |
-0.0277 |
2.8603% |
|||
Top movers:
· CODX tumbles on unexpected Q2 EPS loss, revs miss and operating loss
· DAVE falls as lowered its guidance for 2022
· ILMN slides on top and bottom line Q2 miss, cuts FY22 adjusted EPS view to $2.75-$2.90 from $4.00-$4.20 and slashes FY22 revenue growth
· LAWS downgraded by several analysts after quarterly results
· PAYO rises as guides FY revs $580-590Mm above est. $563.1Mm after quarterly beat
· TOST rises on boosted revenue and earnings outlook for the year after logging higher second-quarter sales
Market commentary provided by Hammerstone Markets, Inc, a firm separate from and not affiliated with Regal Securities. Regal Securities has not participated in the creation of the content, and does not explicitly or implicitly endorse the content.