Mid-Morning Look

Tuesday, February 11, 2025

U.S. stocks are little changed/down slightly to kick off the day as Fed Chairman Powell testifies on Capitol hill about the economy and monetary policy to the Senate Banking Committee, the first of two days of testimony. US futures dipped overnight after President Trump, after initially proposing 25% tariffs on US aluminium imports from Canada & Mexico, is now proposing 25% tariffs on all aluminium imports. The European Union vowed to respond to 25% tariffs Trump said the US will impose on steel and aluminum imports, escalating a potential trade dispute with the U.S. In stock news, Financials -0.7% underperform other sectors for a second straight day along with weakness in Utilities, Industrials and Consumer Discretionary while Materials and Energy are higher. Better earnings this morning from Dow component KO and DD among the few earnings’ bright spots today. Economic data is quiet today and yesterday, but attention turns to inflation data tomorrow (Jan CPI) and Thursday (Jan PPI) and then Retail Sales on Friday. Fed Chairman Powell said in his testimony this morning that there is in no rush to cut its short-term interest rate again given an economy that is “strong overall,” with low unemployment and inflation that remains above the Fed’s 2% target.

• In Insurance: TRV announced preliminary estimate of catastrophe losses relating to the January 2025 California wildfires is $1.7B pre-tax ($1.3B after-tax). The preliminary estimate includes losses from the Company’s personal and commercial segments. ACGL posted Q4 adj operating EPS of $2.26 above consensus of $1.82 helped by a stronger favorable reserve development, driven by the Mortgage and Reinsurance segments, and lower-than-expected catastrophe losses ($393M vs. $420M est.). CINF reported Q4 EPS $314 topping ests $1.87 helped by a better than-expected core loss ratio as well as lower cat losses.
• In Metals & Mining: sector remains active after President Trump on Monday imposed 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports from March 4, putting further pressure on top trading partners Canada and Mexico. This morning in research, Keybanc upgraded STLD to Overweight given their view recent operational challenges at Sinton (and margins) are turning, supporting materially positive earnings revisions.

• DD +5%; as reported Q4 adjusted earnings of $1.13 a share, topping analysts’ estimates of $0.98 while net sales in the period rose 7% to $3.1B, topping the $3.07B estimate as organic sales also rose 7%.
• GOLF +12%; will replace ROIC in the S&P SmallCap 600 effective prior to the opening of trading on Thursday, February 13.
• KLG +6%; beats quarterly profit owing to higher product prices as Q4 adj EPS $0.42 tops the $0.26 estimate as net income rose 26.7% to $19M y/y but sales slipped -1.8% y/y to $640M below ests $645M; guides FY25 adj. EBITDA growth in the range of 4% to 6% vs 3% growth reported in fiscal 2024.
• KO +4%; after posting better-than-expected revenue and profit in the fourth quarter, boosted by higher prices and sales (revs rose 6.4% y/y to $11.54B vs. est. $10.68B) while organic revs grew 14% and unit case volume grew 1% in N.ALIPO +68%; after saying its experimental drug, LP-310, showed a strong safety profile in a small study of 24 patients with oral lichen planus (OLP)
• LSCC +14%; reported in-line 4Q results and guided 1Q slightly higher while design wins remain at record levels with continued momentum across the Avant and Nexus product families, while the business returned to growth following five consecutive quarters in decline.
• PSX +6%; Elliott Investment Management has built a more than $2.5 billion stake in oil refiner PSX and plans to push the company to sell or spin off its midstream business, the WSJ reported overnight
• SLQT +35%; shares jump after $350M investment from investors including Bain Capital, Q2 results.

• FIS -16%; after guiding Q1 EPS $1.17-$1.22 vs. est. $1.28 which overshadowed better Q4 results (FY EPS view $5.70-$5.80 midpoint above consensus $5.72); also said partners with AFRM to bring integrated pay-over-time capabilities directly to debit issuing banking clients and their cardholders.
• FLNC -47%; reported Q1 results well below expectations and reduced fiscal 2025 revenue guidance by 15%, prompting a few Wall Street downgrades (BMO, Guggenheim); Q4 revs fell -49% y/y to $186.79M vs. est. $380M saying decline primarily driven by the pronounced backend nature of expected revenue for FY25.
• HLIT -13%; delivered a very strong Q424 with revenue +33% and EPS +$.32 y/y, but introduced a weaker F25 guide than feared, driven by soft demand from its two major customers, Comcast and Charter; Q4 Broadband revenue grew +48% y/y, but total orders declined -24% y/y.
• HUM -3%; forecast year EPS below estimates; sees 2025 adjusted profit per share of about $16.25 compared to analysts’ estimate of $16.71 per share; posted slightly larger than expected Q4 EPS loss of (-$2.16) vs. est. (-$2.12) on better revs $29.2B vs. $28.84B est.
• MAR -4%; forecast slower net room growth and 2025 profit below Wall Street estimates, hurt by poor performance at its hotels in Greater China; guided FY EPS $9.82-$10.19, below analysts’ expectations of $10.65 per share.
• VSAT -18%; discloses certain ground network infrastructure locations in the EMEA markets will be exited; anticipates impairment charge in Q4 of $130-180M.

Syndicate/Deal Pricings:

• SCHW 184.679M share Secondary, priced at $79.25
• HESM 11M share Spot Secondary, priced at $39.45
• SERA 1.25M share Spot Secondary, priced at $4.00

• HLNE 1.57M share Spot Secondary, priced at $160.25