Mid-Morning Look

Friday, February 14, 2025

U.S. stocks open higher, adding to weekly gains as the S&P trades to its all-time high, overcoming concerns of global tariffs with trade partners, higher inflation readings, and mixed earnings this week. Treasury yields have been volatile this week, hitting highs midweek of around 4.65% for the benchmark 10-yr after the “hotter” CPI data, but comes tumbling down the last 2-days last at 4.46% as January producer prices (PPI) data buoyed equity sentiment and hurt the US dollar, even as uncertainty over US tariff plans remained. The key for markets was probably that the US did not plan to impose any reciprocal tariffs until at least April and no later than August, with Commerce Secretary Lutnick due to deliver a report to President Trump by April 1. The very vague outline and delayed timetable for the reciprocal tariff plan helped reinforce an already existing positive mood for investors. European markets hitting all-time highs this week for the STOXX 600 and German Dax, while the Hang Seng closed out the week with big gains in Asia. Markets also optimistic of improved tensions between Ukraine and Russia as President Trump pushes for the two sides to work things out. US listed China stocks huge winners this week, led by a 20% jump in BABA among other winners. Overnight earnings winners include ABNB, DKNG, GT, and ROKU while big declines seen for AMAT, DVA, GDDY, INFA, PANW and TWLO.

• January import prices +0.3% (below consensus +0.4%) and vs Dec +0.2% while Jan export prices rose +1.3% (above consensus +0.3%) and vs Dec +0.5%; U.S. Jan non-petroleum import prices +0.1%, year-over-year +1.8%; Jan petroleum import prices +2.9% vs Dec +0.6%; Jan year-over-year import prices +1.9%, export prices +2.7%.
• January Industrial output rose +0.5%, above consensus +0.3% and vs Dec +1.0% while capacity utilization rate 77.8% slightly above consensus 77.7% and vs Dec 77.5%; Jan manufacturing output -0.1% (consensus +0.1%) vs Dec +0.5% (previous +0.6%); cap use 76.3% vs Dec 76.4%.
• Dec inventory/sales ratio 1.35 months’ worth vs Nov 1.37 months; Dec Business Inventories -0.2% (consensus unchanged) vs Nov +0.1% (prev +0.1%); Dec business sales +0.8% vs Nov +0.6% (prev +0.5%).

• In Semis: AMAT shares slump in semi equipment space after earnings as Q1 topped consensus, but shares slipped as guides Q2 EPS $2.30 plus/minus $0.18 vs. est. $2.29 and sees Q2 revenue $7.1B plus/minus $400M vs. est. $7.2B. AMD downgraded from Buy to Outperform at Daiwa and cut tgt to $130 from $170 noting management did suggest a strong 2H25 especially with the ramp of MI350, which was pulled into production earlier than planned in 2025 and will aid 2H revenue. MI400 to come out in 2026. INTC shares have rallied more than 26% this week on reports of the US government possibly getting involved with a plan involving both Intel and TSM
• In Utilities: Early earnings season a disappointment for the sector as 30 of the 72 utilities that have reported are showing a -9.88% sales surprise and -4.66% on earnings surprise, the only sector with negative surprises as per Bloomberg data. PCG was downgraded to Underweight at Morgan Stanley and lowers PTs and bear cases for EIX as well and bear cases for both. Notes EIX has declined 37% YTD and PCG has declined 26% YTD, with the stocks now trading at discounts of 47% and 42%, respectively, to the broader utilities group, but would not be buyers.

• CRSP +17%; upgraded from In Line to Outperform at Evercore/ISI and raised tgt to $99 from $60 ahead of key catalysts that could usher in a new era for CRSP which includes the addition of in vivo programs CTX320 + CTX310.
• DKNG +11%; reported Q424 revenue of $1.393B, increasing 13% YoY, exceeding lowered Street expectations following the unlucky sport outcomes in October and December; EBITDA of +$89M also exceeded expectations.
• GME +7%; is exploring investments in alternative asset classes, including crypto and in particular bitcoin, three sources said, CNBC reported last night https://tinyurl.com/4nze6d7z
• PCOR +7%; reported better-than-expected revenue (+16% Y/Y-CC), cRPO (+19% Y/Y and up mid-teens excluding early renewals), and Total RPO (+29% Y/Y and the highest growth in six quarters) while slightly raised FY25 revenue (+12% Y/Y vs. +11% Y/Y prior) and Operating Margin (13%-13.5% vs. 13% prior).
• ROKU +13%; reported strong 4Q24 results, with revenue and gross profit coming in 4% and 9% above consensus, while EBITDA was $43M above consensus. Roku provided full-year 2025 guidance with gross profit guidance coming in ~3% ahead of consensus and EBITDA guidance ~$63M above consensus.
• THS +17%; despite posting a slight decline in Q4 sales (missing estimates) while its guidance for the current quarter and year came in below Wall Street’s estimates guiding Q1 revenue $785M-$800M vs. est. $835.3M.
• WYNN +9%; rises on earnings reports as Stifle noted results and outlook probably aren’t as strong as MGM’s the day prior but was pretty close and more importantly should allow WYNN shares to move higher.

• CLW -8%; to cut 10% of positions across company; said Q4 sales fell -5.8% y/y to $483M saying they continue to experience challenging SBS industry conditions, with supply exceeding demand.
• CRBP -15%; An experimental antibody-drug conjugate made by Corbus Pharmaceuticals showed a 27% overall response rate, mirroring results from a similar study in China; CRB-701 targets the Nectin-4 protein and delivers chemotherapy with potentially fewer side effects than PFE’s Padcev
• COIN -6%; top and bottom lines beat the high and increasing expectations; Revenue and adj. EBITDA were the highest in three years; outlook was strong, with 1Q25TD ADV up ~9% QoQ and ~51% YoY (however shares moved lower despite the strong results).
• DVA -13%; shares fell as Q4 results topped views but guided 2025 projections well below consensus as sees FY adj op Inc $2.01-2.16B vs est. $2.077B and adj EPS $10.20-11.30 vs est. $11.24.
• INFA -31%; was downgraded at RBC Capital and Deutsche Bank after the co reported a messy/confusing qtr where results missed expectations; co experienced greater than expected churn; reported Q4 total and cloud annual recurring revenue miss, a steep deceleration in 2025 cloud ARR growth.
• PANW -6%; as Q2 revenue growth and NGS ARR modestly exceeded Street estimates, RPO metrics were healthy, and operating margins were about 70 basis points above consensus, though FCF missed Street estimates and management is reiterating FY25 and FY26 FCF targets.
• SERV, SOUN, NNOX shares all decline after NVDA filed a 13F indicating that the chipmaker exited its stakes in the companies; meanwhile, WRD ADRs surge and NBIS shares rise as Nvidia revealed positions in both.
• TWLO -15%; 4Q results with revenue increasing 11% YoY on accelerating messaging volumes, strong email revenues, and broad-based vertical/regional contributions; shares slip as Q4 EBIT and free cash flow were both in-line with the guidance, while the Q1 revenue growth guidance was slightly below consensus.