Mid-Morning Look: January 30, 2024

Mid-Morning Look

Tuesday, January 30, 2024





DJ Industrials




S&P 500








Russell 2000






U.S. stocks opened the day flattish after modest weakness overnight, pressured further following stronger than expected economic data as monthly JOLTs data and consumer confidence boosted sentiment about the economy, but markets still waiting for big earnings tonight (AMD, GOOG, MSFT, EA, SBUX, SWKS) and then the FOMC policy meeting tomorrow afternoon. It has been nothing but stock market strength for 3-months now, with the S&P and Nasdaq rising 12 of the last 13-weeks and got off to a strong star Monday with big gains as investors continue to chase gains in mega cap stocks. Weakness today from Energy, REITs, and utilities with Financials one of the few bright spots. Bond prices slip as yields edge higher. Oil equipment and service stock hit hard on Saudi Aramco headlines overnight (see below), while autos get a bounce on better GM results, though transports fall behind a lower outlook from UPS. The Federal Open Markets Committee is expected to announce Wednesday at the end of its two-day meeting that it is leaving interest rates unchanged.

Economic Data

  • Consumer Confidence index for January rose to 114.8 (best levels since Dec 2021) from December revised 108.0 (vs. est. 115.0); Present Situation Index surged to 161.3 from 147.2 last month and the Expectations Index improved to 83.8 in January, up from a revised reading of 81.9 in December.
  • December Job openings (JOLTs) were 9.026M vs. est. 8.750M (and vs. prior 8.93M).
  • November 20-metro area home prices +5.4% y/y vs. consensus +5.8% and compared to +4.9% in October according to S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller, while November home prices in 20 metro areas +0.1% seasonally adj (consensus +0.5%) vs +0.6% in October. U.S. November home prices +0.3% from October.






WTI Crude















10-Year Note




Sector Movers Today

  • In Services & Oil Equipment: shares of SLB, BKR, BORR, HAL and others declined after Saudi Aramco said it will cut its planned maximum sustainable oil production capacity to 12M barrels a day (bpd) after being ordered by Saudi Arabia’s government. The new target is one million bpd below the target announced in 2020. HP Q1 EBITDA of $208M 6% above est., driven by strong NAM Solutions daily margin of $18.7K (+$1.2K QoQ) with average revenue/day of $38.3K (+$985 QoQ) and average opex/day of $19.6K (-$225 QoQ).
  • In the EMS Sector: shares of CLS and SANM both jump following better earnings and guidance; CLS Q4 adj EPS $0.76 vs. est. $0.68; Q4 revs $2.14B vs. est. $2.08B; sees Q1 adj EPS $0.67-$0.77 vs. est. $0.60 and sees Q1 revenue $2.025B-$2.175B above consensus $1.99B; raises FY24 adjusted free cash flow view to $200M or more. SANM Q1 adj EPS $1.30 vs es.t $1.22 on revs $1.875B vs est. $1.87B, adj pre-tax ROIC 22.7%; guides Q2 revs $1.825-1.925B vs est. $1.803B and adj EPS $1.20-1.30 vs est. $1.09 (shares of FLEX, JBL, BHE were active in sympathy).
  • In Banks: Morgan Stanley upgraded shares of BAC to Overweight, Citi (C) upgraded to OW (from Underweight), GS upgraded to Overweight, BK upgraded to Equal Weight and downgraded NTRS to Underweight saying it looks like Basel Endgame will be lightened up, which opens the door for a significant increase in buybacks, as large cap banks have the highest excess capital levels ever. The firm also raised priced tgts by median 16% as it rolls its valuation year from 2024 to 2025 and new 2025 EPS estimates are median +18% higher than its old 2024 estimates. WAL was cut to Equal Weight from Overweight at Wells Fargo saying current results and guidance leave little room for error.



  • FFIV +2%; Q124 total revenue growth of -1.1% YoY was slightly above Street’s – 2.2%, mainly due to the 7.5% YoY growth in services revenue; guided Q2 revenue to decline 2.6% YoY and maintained its FY24 rev growth of -1.5% YoY.
  • GM +5%; better results and guide as Q4 adj EPS $1.24 vs. est. $1.16; Q4 revs $42.98B vs. est. $38.97B; forecasts 2024 adj EPS $8.50 to $9.50, above est. $7.70; sees FY adj auto FCF $8B to $10B and adj Ebit $12B-$14B, vs. est. $10.96B.
  • KURA +14%; reported no cases of differentiation syndrome, a closely tracked side effect, in a new study that combines its experimental menin inhibitor, called ziftomenib, with chemotherapy in patients with acute myeloid leukemia.
  • RCUS +4%; announced a $320M equity investment from GILD along with multiple Phase 3 program updates; the two companies are jointly developing an anti-TIGIT antibody for cancer.
  • SMCI +5%; delivered modest upside to the notable beat they preannounced earlier this month, while guided for significant sequential growth through the end of their fiscal year (~8% Q/Q in Q3 and 23% in Q4) to get to the midpoint of guidance.
  • TSVT +10%; as REGN announced the formation of Regeneron Cell Medicines based on an agreement with TSVT to acquire full development and commercialization rights to its pipeline of investigational novel immune cell therapies.



  • ATGE -16%; shares tumbled following a short report from Safkhet Capital, saying they believe the co has serious issues to contend with in the near-term http://tinyurl.com/57sfwarm .
  • CALX -26%; shares tumbled after softer guidance offset Q4 beat; sees Q1 EPS $0.17-$0.23 below consensus $0.38 and revs $225M-$231M vs. est. $267.57M.
  • JCI -5%; lowered its full-year profit expectations to $3.60-$3.75 from $3.65-$3.80 prior; Q1 revs of $6.09B missed.
  • MBUU -16%; as Q2 sales -38% y/y to $211.1M vs. est. $219.7M and anticipates fy24 adjusted ebitda margin down 800 to 900 basis points, y/y (follows recent HZO warning in the boating sector).
  • PII -3%; reported 4Q23 adjusted EPS of $1.98, $0.59 below consensus and 43% below last year as total sales declined 5%, with retail sales up 7%, and operating margin declined 390bps, to 7.0% on lower efficiencies and elevated promo.
  • PLOW -7%; as reports Q4 adj EPS $0.19/$134M below the $0.59/$178.8M consensus; sees 2023 adjusted EPS $1.01, below consensus $1.41 and revs $568M vs. est. $612.7M.
  • UPS -8%; Q4 adj EPS $2.47 vs. est. $2.46; Q4 revs $24.9B miss consensus $25.45B; raises quarterly dividend to $1.63 per share; sees FY24 revenue $92B-$94.5B below consensus $95.57B; sees FY24 consolidated adjusted operating margin to range from approximately 10.0% to 10.6%.
  • WHR -5%; Q4 results topped consensus but forecast full-year sales and profit below analysts’ estimates (guided FY sales $16.9B vs. est. $17.68B and EPS to be between $13-$15 vs. est. $15.48 per share).


Market commentary provided by Hammerstone Markets, Inc, a firm separate from and not affiliated with Regal Securities. Regal Securities has not participated in the creation of the content, and does not explicitly or implicitly endorse the content.