Mid-Morning Look: June 30, 2025

Mid-Morning Look

Monday, June 30, 2025

Index

Up/Down

%

Last

DJ Industrials

133.84

0.30%

43,953

S&P 500

13.39

0.22%

6,186

Nasdaq

30.77

0.16%

20,305

Russell 2000

7.84

0.36%

2,180

 

 

U.S. stocks remain strong, as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are making new all-time highs, building on last week’s gains as we approach trade/tariff deadlines as well as monthly jobs data (on Wednesday and Thursday) on this holiday shortened week (markets closed Friday for 4th of July). Major averages hit an all-time high last week over optimism around US/China trade policy and potential rate cuts sooner as inflation data has eased 4 straight months. Eyes on the Senate as we approach Trump’s deadline for the “One Big Beautiful Bill” with proposals over the weekend having an early trading impact on solar, utility (as Senate’s latest version of the tax-and-spending mega bill will phase out tax credits for large-scale wind and solar projects by the end of 2027 – earlier than in previous drafts), and healthcare names. Banks with early strength after results of the Federal Reserve’s annual stress tests showed the largest U.S. lenders were well-positioned to withstand a severe economic downturn. In tariff/trade news overnight: Canada has withdrawn its digital services tax on tech companies in a move to restart trade talks with the US; President Trump floated the idea of keeping 25% tariffs on Japan’s cars as talks between the two nations continued, and UK car manufacturers can export to the US under a 10% tariff starting Monday, a reduction from the 25% rate imposed on other countries. In stock news, HPE/JNPR shares rise on deal headlines, ORCL rises on revenue outlook and positive analyst commentary as tech leads, but energy, consumer discretionary and healthcare lag.

 

Economic Data

  • Chicago PMI June index 40.4 (below consensus 43.0) and vs. 40.5 in May. The below-50 reading, the lowest since January, means activity has been contracting for 19 consecutive months. The slight decrease was driven by a fall in supplier deliveries, production, employment and order backlogs, though that was almost fully offset by a rise in new orders. The index for prices paid climbed to its highest level since May 2022, as 70% of respondents reported higher prices in June, up from 57% in May, the survey said.

 

 

Macro

Up/Down

Last

WTI Crude

-0.36

65.16

Brent

-0.16

67.61

Gold

7.00

3,294.60

EUR/USD

0.001

1.17

29JPY/USD

-0.020

144.45

10-Year Note

-0.01

4.273%

 

Sector Movers Today

  • The Dodd-Frank Act Stress Test results were out late Friday as all the participant banks passed the stress test indicating large banks (BAC, C, GS, WFC, JPM, SCHW) are well-positioned to weather a severe recession in 2025 stress test. Twenty-two largest banks forecast an aggregate decline of 1.8% of common equity tier 1 capital under hypothetical recession, total losses of more than $550B. Banks that were tested maintained capital ratios of more than double minimum requirements under Fed stress test. Goldman Sachs noted the CCAR stress test results (June 27) came in substantially better than expected for large banks, with Stress Capital Buffers (SCBs) of 2.9% on average across the group, down 50bps YoY, and suggesting substantial excess CET1 capital and expects changes to the stress test methodology to result in structurally lower SCBs ahead.
  • Solar and Wind stocks were mixed as the Senate’s latest version of Trump’s spending package looks to phase out key tax incentives for renewables projects more aggressively. The draft bill would phase out tax credits for large-scale wind and solar projects by the end of 2027 — earlier than in previous drafts. Projects must now be in service by Dec. 31, 2027, to qualify. Tesla CEO Elon Musk said the latest draft bill was “utterly insane and destructive,” in a post on X Saturday. “It gives handouts to industries of the past while severely damaging industries of the future,” he added.

 

Stock GAINERS

  • BE +9%; in reaction to the One Big Beautiful Bill in the Senate has mixed implications for solar linked clean energy stocks, seen positive for BE with reintroduction of tax credits for fuel cells as per RBC Capital.
  • DIS +2%; was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies and raise tgt to $144 from $100 as now sees limited risk of a second half of 2025 Parks slowdown from Epic Universe and macro factors and is more positive on FY26 Cruise upside, while also positive on FY26 Cruise upside.
  • GMS +11%; to be bought for $110 per share by HD, reflecting a total equity value of approximately $4.3B. Including net debt, the deal implies a total enterprise value of about $5.5B. HD beat out QXO, which had previously submitted an unsolicited proposal to buy GMS for about $5B, offering $95.20 a share in cash.
  • JNPR +8%; and HPE shares rise after the Justice Department settled its lawsuit challenging Hewlett Packard Enterprise’s $13 billion takeover of Juniper Networks, less than two weeks before a trial was set to start, clearing a key hurdle for the takeover.
  • JOBY +17%; delivers first aircraft to Dubai as air taxi service nears launch; the company delivered its first production air taxis to Dubai, where it hopes to launch the world’s first service in 2026.
  • MRNA +2%; said its experimental influenza vaccine showed superior efficacy, compared with a licensed standard-dose seasonal flu shots in adults aged 50 years and older in a late-stage study.
  • ORCL +5%; after the company notes it expects more than $30B annual revenue from multiple cloud service agreements starting FY28; was also upgraded to Buy from Hold at Stifel with $250 tgt.

 

Stock LAGGARDS

  • AES -5%; along with other independent power producers following Senate bill this weekend.
  • CHE -9%; after the co said that certain provisions related to Medicare and its application in Florida resulted in lower projections for its Vitas subsidiary, according to a Securities and Exchange Commission filing on Friday.
  • INMB -59%; after reporting key findings from phase 2, Mindful trial of XPRO in early Alzheimer’s disease saying the trial did not meet primary cognitive endpoint in mitt population while treatment was well-tolerated and safe in high-risk patients: to schedule end-of-phase 2 meeting with FDA in Q4 2025.
  • TEM -1%; on planned $400M convertible bond offering
  • TROX -11%; was downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital (tgt to $3 from $7) saying due to weak U.S. housing, soft China construction markets, and listless demand in Europe, the demand environment remains challenged.
  • UNCY -24%; after announces receipt of complete response letter for oxylanthanum carbonate for the treatment of hyperphosphatemia in patients with chronic kidney disease on dialysis.
  • ZS -1%; files to sell $1.5B of convertible senior notes due 2028.

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Market commentary provided by Hammerstone Markets, Inc, a firm separate from and not affiliated with Regal Securities. Regal Securities has not participated in the creation of the content, and does not explicitly or implicitly endorse the content.