Mid-Morning Look

Monday, March 06, 2023

U.S. stocks extend late last week gains, heading into a potentially big catalyst driven week with testimony on Capital Hill by Fed Chairman Powell twice this week (Tues and Wednesday), as well as monthly non-farm payroll data on Friday and a few central bank meetings this week (BoC, RBA, and BoJ). After slipping two weeks ago on rising Treasury yields and interest rate expectations given higher inflation data readings (CPI, PPI, PCE), stock markets have surged, with the S&P 500 bouncing off its 200-day MA last week and hasn’t looked back since, while the dollar and yields have pared gains. Energy -0.85% and Materials -0.5% only S&P sectors lower early given the modest economic growth target of around 5% for China GDP, while the other nine S&P sectors are higher, paced by gains +1.3% in technology. A strong start to the week with major averages broadly higher.

Economic Data

·     Factory Orders for January m/m fell (-1.6%) vs. est. (-1.8%) and prior +1.7%, while Factory Orders Ex-Trans m/m rose 1.2% vs. est. 1.0% (prior -1.2%); Jan factory orders ex-defense (-1.8%) vs. Dec +1.8%. Durable Goods Orders m/m fall (-4.5%), in-line with estimates and Durable Ex-Transportation m/m rose +0.8% vs. est. 0.7%. U.S. Jan inventories/shipments ratio 1.48 months’ worth vs dec 1.49 months.

Stock GAINERS

·     AAPL +2%; initiated at a Buy and $199 tgt at Goldman Sachs saying the iPhone maker’s growing installed base of users underpins the “Apple-as-a-Service” opportunity.

·     BBIO +55%; after a mid-stage study showed that high doses of its experimental therapy infigratinib spurred increased effects in children with achondroplasia, a genetic cause of dwarfism (shares of BMRN slips amid negative competitive read-through).

·     CIEN +14%; posted profit that was nearly double expectations, driven by strong demand and an improving supply chain; 1Q beat with revenues $1.06B vs. est. $959M driven by Networking Platform with big upside on both EPS of $0.64 (vs. est. $0.36) and adj. EBITDA $155M vs. est. $101M driven by better GMs (43.7% vs. cons 42%) and OMs (12.6% vs. cons 8.3%).

·     ENPH +5%; as solar stocks among leaders early with SEDG, ARRY, SPWR, FSLR rising.

·     LUMN +6%; FICO will replace LUMN in the S&P 500, and Lumen Technologies will replace BBBY in the S&P SmallCap 600 on Monday March 20^th.

·     SNAP +11%; as Senator McCarthy this morning said TikTok brings him ‘real concern;” seeing strength in both SNAP and META as calls for TikTok ban in US grows.

·     VIR +5%; upgraded to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan on the potential of the company’s flu shot and HBV therapies.

Stock LAGGARDS

·     ACRS -53%; shares fall after a 12-week phase 2 study of oral Zunsemetinib did not meet primary or secondary efficacy endpoints in patients with moderate to severe skin condition.

·     BIRD -5%; downgraded to Neutral at Wedbush and lower target o $3 from $4 saying while the company has a long potential runway for growth, they’re concerned about BIRD’s relative underperformance vs. other emerging footwear brands in our coverage.

·     DXCM -5%; after FDA approves rival Abbott’s (ABT) glucose monitors for use with automated insulin delivery systems.

·     ESPR -21%; as the CLEAR Outcomes data (a global study of nearly 14,000 patients with or at risk for cardiovascular disease) this weekend at ACC conference showed a risk reduction in 4-component major adverse cardiac events (MACE) that was lower than many investors were seeking (13% risk reduction in 4-component MACE is lower than the 15% sought by the Street).

·     IAA -7%; Proxy advisory firm Glass Lewis recommends that shareholders vote against RBA planned takeover of U.S. auto retailer IAA Inc. – Reuters https://bit.ly/3STRClN

·     INCY -2%; said it would discontinue its Phase 3 LIMBER-304 trial following an interim analysis that indicated the myelofibrosis study was unlikely to meet its primary endpoint.

·     RH -2%; downgrading to Hold at Jefferies given a luxury housing market that’s struggling to stabilize and corporate cuts to headcount / compensation that haven’t yet rippled across the luxury home furnishings category.

·     TSLA -1%; reduced prices of its more expensive models again, as the Model S and X now start at $89,990 and $99,990 in the US, down a respective 5.3% and 9.1%, according to Tesla’s website.