Mid-Morning Look

Thursday, May 11, 2023

U.S. stocks are slipping early despite signs of further inflation deceleration after the April producer price index (PPI) came in line with estimates m/m, and down y/y while weekly jobless claims rose more than expected. The data helps support the market thesis that the Fed is done raising interest rates and will pause at the June meeting/possibly begin rate cuts as early as July/August. The Dow Jones Industrial Average underperforms behind weakness in Disney (DIS) after quarterly subscriber results weighed down shares. A handful of large cap technology stocks (AMZN, AMD, GOOGL, META) are helping keep the broader Nasdaq from sliding and minimizing losses for the S&P. However, Industrials, Materials, and Energy stocks are among the biggest decliners in the S&P 500. Financials mixed with regional banks (KRE) are down early after PACW said it pledged an additional $5.1B of its loans to the central bank, which resulted in an additional borrowing capacity of $3.9B. Markets have now gotten back to back days of easing inflation data (though still well above the Fed’s 2% inflation tgt overall), but have failed to rally meaningfully with the debt ceiling concerns weighing on sentiment into the likely June period. Both the White House and Republicans are still not near a deal. Treasury yields and oil prices are both falling.

Economic Data

·     Weekly Jobless Claims jumped to 264K from 242K prior week and above ests of 245K; the 4-week moving average rose to 245,250 from 239,250 prior week; continued claims rose to 1.813M from 1.801M prior week and U.S. insured unemployment rate unchanged at 1.2%.

·     Much like yesterday’s CPI data, today’s April y/y PPI decelerates as headline Producer Price Index (PPI) M/M for April rose +0.2%, below the +0.3% est. and PPI Headline Y/Y for April rose +2.3% vs. est. +2.4% (and down from the +2.7% last month). Core PPI or excluding Food & Energy for April rose +0.2%, in-line with consensus and Y/Y core +3.2% vs. est. +3.3% (down from +3.4% prior).

Stock GAINERS

·     APP +24%; reported 1Q results that beat consensus/guidance, driven by record quarterly revenue for Software Platform; Q1 revs $715M tops $693.5M estimate and guides Q2 revs $719M-$730M vs. est. $709M.

·     ENTG +19%; as quarterly results topped consensus.

·     GT +16%; after activist investor Elliott Investment Management reported a stake and plans to seek five board seats, as well as sale of its store network https://bit.ly/3Me6Y2J

·     HOOD +7%; reported quarterly better results Q1 monthly active users (MAU) increased 0.4 mln sequentially to 11.8M and said they will allow 24-hour trading between 8:PM ET Sunday thru 8:00 PM ET Friday in 43 different securities and all customers will have access by June.

·     RBLX +4%; upgraded by two analysts (Roth, Benchmark) after earnings.

·     TPR +7%; rises on results, helping lift luxury retail (Q3 EPS $0.78 vs. est. $0.59; Q3 revs $1.51B vs. est. $1.44B; raises FY23 EPS view to $3.85-$3.90 from $3.70-$3.75 and ups sales growth view.

·     U +11%; delivered better than expected Q1 results, exceeding the consensus view on revenue and profit and increased the low-end of their FY23 revenue guide by $30M and the low-end of their AEBITDA guide by $20M.

Stock LAGGARDS

·     BYND -11%; Q1 better than feared qtr on Revs and EBITDA and better margins but Q2 rev guidance of $106m was below consensus of $122M.

·     CDNA -5%; after withdrawing its 2023 revenue outlook citing uncertainties around the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services’ (CMS) policy on transplant testing and reported Q1 revs of $77.25M, missing the $80.6M consensus view.

·     DIS -8%; reported in-line Q2 top and bottom line but shares fell as total subscribers across Disney+, Hulu and ESPN+ missed estimates as they rose to 231.3 million from 205.5 million last year but was -1.4% Q/Q and below ests around 238.8M.

·     IBRX -53%; after the FDA declined to approve the company’s marketing application for a type of bladder cancer treatment in its present form, citing deficiencies related to inspection of IBRX’s third-party contract manufacturing organizations.

·     IEP -4%; after Hindenburg Research said the company has failed to address every key issue that the research firm had raised in its short report a few weeks back.

·     NTR -3%; lowered its FY23 EPS view to $5.50-$7.50 from prior view of $8.45-$0.65 saying fertilizer prices owed to Western sanctions on Russia and Belarus weighed on demand.

·     PACW -18%; after a 10-Q filing showed as of 5/10, immediately available liquidity (on-balance sheet liquidity & unused borrowing capacity) was $15B; week ended 5/5, deposits fell about 9.5%, with majority of decline on May 4 & 5 and at 3/31, had $341.7M in cash & cash equivalents.

·     SONO -23%; after lowering 2023 revs view to $1.63B-$1.68B from prior $1.7B-$1.8B citing softening consumer demand and channel partner inventory tightening.

·     WW -18%; after its top shareholder Artal Group S.A. sold its remaining stake in co, selling 14.82M share Block Trade priced at $7.25.