Mid-Morning Look: May 15, 2024

Mid-Morning Look

Wednesday, May 15, 2024





DJ Industrials




S&P 500








Russell 2000






U.S. stocks hitting all-time highs for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, as the SPY rises for a 10th straight day after the April Consumer Price Index (CPI) was reported in-line with consensus and down from the prior month, boosting market hopes/expectations of a sooner interest rate cut by the Fed. A weaker Retail Sales report for April also helped juice hopes of a cut to help stimulate the economy. SPY hitting a new ATH above $526.70 ($524.61 the prior ATH made 3/28). Treasury yields dropped following the CPI data, as the U.S. 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields lowest since April 5 at 4.34% and 4.73% respectively. @charliebilello noted “Overall US CPI moved down to 3.36% YoY in April from 3.48% in March. US inflation has now been above 3% for 37 straight months. US Core CPI (ex-Food/Energy) moved down to 3.62% YoY from 3.80% last month. This is the lowest core inflation reading since April 2021.” The Canadian dollar strengthens to touch a five-week high per U.S. dollar while the Japanese yen continues gain against dollar advance and the Euro also pops on data. Gold prices climbed to a more than three-week peak aided by a weaker dollar after data (has since pared gains). Smallcaps outperform on rate cut hopes as the Russell 2000 rises more than 1% initially; Bitcoin another asset rising, up over 4% topping $64K. In sector movers, Energy (XLE) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) were weak, but other sectors higher including 1% gains for Utilities (XLU) and REITs (XLRE) as interest rate sensitive sectors rose. Also, the two-day craze of stock buying in high “short interest” and “meme” names like GME, AMC seeing profit taking early today. Oil prices slid to the lowest levels since February.

Economic Data

  • U.S. April Consumer Price Index (CPI) rises +0.3% M/M, just below consensus of +0.4% while headline CPI Y/Y rises +3.45%, in-line with consensus and down from +3.5% in March. On the core CPI reading (ex: food & energy), prices rose +0.3%, in-line with estimates and down from March +0.4% and Y/Y was in-line at +3.6%, down from +3.8% in March.
  • April Retail Sales M/M was flat at 0% below consensus for a +0.4% rise and retail sales ex-autos +0.2%, in-line with consensus and down from March +0.9% (prev +1.1%); April gasoline sales +3.1% vs March +2.1%, April cars/parts sales -0.8% vs March -0.3%, Retail Sales Ex-autos/gas/building materials/food services -0.3% (est. +0.1%) vs March +1.0%.
  • March inventory/sales ratio 1.37 months’ worth vs Feb 1.37 months; U.S. March business sales -0.1% vs Feb +1.4% (prev +1.6%); U.S. March retail inventories ex-autos revised to -0.2% (prev -0.1%).
  • May NAHB Housing market index 45 (consensus 51) versus 51 in April (previous 51); May index of current single-family home sales 51 versus 57 in April (previous 57); May index of home sales over next six months 51 versus 60 in April (previous 60); May index of prospective buyers 30 versus revised 34 in April (previous 35).






WTI Crude















10-Year Note




Sector Movers Today

  • In Credit Cards/Finance: DFS credit card charge-off rate 2.35% at April end vs 2.48% at March end; and credit card delinquency rate 1.68% at April end vs 1.70% at March end; COF said 30+ day performing delinquencies rate for domestic credit card 4.23% at April end vs 4.48% at March end; 30+ day performing delinquencies rate for auto 5.24% at April end vs 5.28% at March end; said April domestic credit card net charge-offs rate 6.07% vs 6.15% in March, April auto net charge-offs rate 1.65% vs 1.66% in March and domestic credit card net charge-offs rate 6.07 % vs 6.15% in March. BAC credit card delinquency rate was 1.39% at April end vs 1.41% at March end and credit card charge-off rate was 2.49% in April vs 2.43% in March.
  • In Analog Semis: Cantor said investor interest in the Analog sector is on the rise with a clear vision to a trough in fundamentals in 1HCY24. Continues to recommend NXPI (raising price target to $325 for upside of ~20%+) as Analog favorite, but also recognize incrementally more upside for both ADI (raising price target to $240 for upside of ~15%) and TXN (raising price target to $210 for upside of ~10%+) as the cyclical rule of thumb — a trough is a trough is a trough — should never be forgotten – says Analog cyclical bottom a done deal for 1H24.
  • In Retail: BOOT reported Q4 EPS above estimates due to higher sales and a much better margin structure than expected as EPS came in at $0.96 which was well above $0.8 consensus as sales improved sequentially in Q424, and trends have turned positive in early Q125; but guides FY25 sales $1.766B to $1.8B below the estimate $1.824B. In luxury retail, Burberry (BURBY) said sees 1H of current financial year to remain challenging after posting a 34% drop in annual operating profit on weak China performance; said comp sales in Q4 down (-12%).



  • AES +4%; among jump in utilities with NRG also up 4% as interest rate sensitive names leading higher.
  • ARQT +13%; rallied on earnings as Needham noted total Zoryve sales of $21.6MM (+60%Q/Q), was significantly above the Street’s $15.2MM, driven by continued GTN improvements (to low-60%s) and the launch of Zoryve foam that drove a ~70%Q/Q Rx increase.
  • BOOT +1%; reported Q4 EPS above estimates due to higher sales and a much better margin structure than expected as EPS came in at $0.96 which was well above $0.8 consensus as sales improved sequentially in Q424, and trends have turned positive in early Q125; but guides FY25 sales $1.766B to $1.8B below the estimate $1.824B.
  • DELL +3%; price tgt raised to $152 from $128 at Morgan Stanley saying supply chain and VAR/CIO checks show DELL gaining momentum in enterprise infrastructure, including competitive AI server wins and inflecting storage strength.
  • FOUR +6%; after filing last night showed Chairman Isaacman buys 85,916 @ $67.09 valued at $5.76M.
  • MNDY +20%; on results/guidance; Q1 revs rose 34% y/y to $216.9M vs. est. $210.5M and guided Q2 revenue $226M-$230M above consensus $225.1M, with Q2 operating income $17M-$21M and Q2 free cash flow $47M-$51M.
  • NU +5%; Q1 revenue $2.7B vs. est. $2.49B; added 5.5M customers in Q1, reaching total of 99.3M globally by March 31, compared to 59.6M only two years ago; delivered accelerating KPIs that included a sharp increase in Active Customers up 27% (+27% last quarter).
  • NXT +8%; reported strong 4Q results ahead of expectations and introduced 2025 guidance as benefited from continuing strong demand, NXT’s discipline around pricing and costs, and a favorable sales mix, skewed more heavily toward U.S.



  • ALB -5%; among leaders to downside in the S&P in lithium sector.
  • BA -1%; shares slipped after the Justice Department says Boeing breached 2021 agreement that shielded it from criminal charges over 737 Max crashes.
  • DLO -26%; fell on earnings as Susquehanna noted Despite very strong TPV growth up nearly 50% (up 4% Q/Q) and solid revenue up 34%, a 31% decline in revenue from Argentina due largely to devaluation weighed on results. Consequently, DLO fell short on the "rule of 100," landing closer to 60% (EBITDA/gross profit + gross profit growth).
  • HAL -2%; oil stocks tumble behind decline in WTI crude to lowest levels since February.
  • INFN -6%; reported its preliminary 1Q financial results below expectations with the sharper-than-expected revenue decline related partially to delayed release in book-to-ship orders creating an impact of $25mn, coupled with order push outs into the second half of the year.
  • KVUE -1%; as JNJ exited his remaining stake in company, selling ~182.3Mm shares in an offering priced at $20 as part of debt-for-equity exchange; J&J spun off Kenvue a year ago in IPO priced at $22.
  • PBR -9%; after the Brazilian government announced a decision to replace PBR’s CEO Prates with former energy regulator Magda Chambriard in push to intervene in the company.
  • SPWR -30%; shares tumbled after Wolfe downgraded shares to Underperform from Peer Perform noting the co is currently undergoing a CEO search which adds additional uncertainty around the strategic outlook.


Market commentary provided by Hammerstone Markets, Inc, a firm separate from and not affiliated with Regal Securities. Regal Securities has not participated in the creation of the content, and does not explicitly or implicitly endorse the content.