Mid-Morning Look

Thursday, November 02, 2023

U.S. stocks surge as just about every data point that needed to go right this week for Bulls has thus far occurred, helping boost stocks for a 4^th straight session and push the S&P 500 back above its key 200-day moving average (SPX 200-day 4,245). Treasury yields have fallen sharply in 2-days, with the benchmark 10-yr yield down nearly 30-bps off the week high to today low (4.62%) after Fed Chairman Powell comments (hinted the US central bank may now be finished with hikes) and the recent Treasury refunding which showed less paper for longer-dated bonds next week than feared. Economic data also providing “goldilocks” scenario today as nonfarm productivity in Q3 came in higher than expected, while unit labor costs posted an unexpected decline of -0.8% and jobless claims climbed along with continued claims – helping the narrative that the Fed won’t need to raise rates any further from the 5.25%-5.5% current level. The data followed weaker ISM data on Wednesday and ADP/JOLTs data ahead of the nonfarm payroll report tomorrow. Meanwhile, earnings overload last night and today – with massive gains in shares of SBUX, PH, CLX, PWR, CLX in the S&P and outsized gains in some other momentum driven names like CAR, FSLY, LMND, ROKU, and SHOP. Of course, names that disappoint Wall Street earnings/guidance punished lower including: APTV, XRAY, BWA MRNA, QRVO, ANSS, SEDG and ABNB. All eyes on AAPL earnings tonight in another earnings onslaught. Also this morning, the Bank of England maintained its key interest rate at 5.25%; says much too early to be thinking about rate cuts; says watching to see if more rate increases needed.

Economic Data

·     Weekly Jobless Claims rose to 217K vs. est. 210K and up from the prior week 212K; the 4-week moving average rose to 210K from 208K in the prior week; continuing claims rose to 1.818M from 1.783M in prior week and Insured Unemployment Rate unchanged at 1.2%.

·     U.S. Q3 non-farm productivity rose +4.7%, above consensus +4.1% and above Q2 +3.6%, while Q3 non-farm unit labor costs fell -0.8% vs. consensus +0.7%) and vs. Q2 +3.2% (up from prior +2.2%).

·     Factory Orders for Sept advanced 2.8% M/M to $601.5B, compared with the 2.4% increase expected and the 1.0% rise (revised from 1.2%) in August.

Sector Movers Today

·     Auto suppliers tumble: BWA cuts FY sales view to $14.1B-$14.3B from $14.2B-$14.6B view prior and narrowed its 2023 adj EPS view to $3.60-$3.80 from $3.50-$3.85 per share and said expects a roughly $110M hit to the value of its sales as the yuan weakens against the dollar. APTV Q3 profit topped views but warned of a $180M hit to sales due to the UAW strike in big autos.

·     In Ag chemicals: NTR Q3 EPS and sales well below consensus and lowered its year EPS view below consensus ($4.15-$5.00, consensus $5.28)- said it sees fertilizer demand increasing, with demand in the fourth quarter expected to grow in both the U.S. and Brazil; CF EPS, revs, Ebitda miss – Q3 EPS $0.85 vs. est. $1.03; Q3 revs $1.27B vs. est. $1.30B; Q3 adj Ebitda $445M vs. est. $481M.

·     Semiconductors: QCOM reported Q4 FY23 revenue/EPS above estimates, with revenue coming in +2% above and EPS +$0.12 above; guided Q1 FY23 revenue/EPS above estimates, with management noting early signs of stabilization in the handset market are forming. QRVO reported F2Q results that beat expectations, while F3Q guidance was slightly above as upside and strength in F2Q was attributed to the (iPhone) ramp and restocking demand from Android customers as channel inventories have normalized. MKSI reported Q3 EPS $1.46, which beat est. $1.02 and revenue of $932M was in-line.

·     In Pharma: BMRN announced CEO retirement and replacement on 12/1 and on Roctavian, no U.S. patient is dosed to date, leading to lower its 2023 guidance to $10M (from $50-150M). LLY 3Q revenues of $9.5B top ests. $8.97B driven by Mounjaro ($1.41B vs. $1.28B est.) and Tyvyt and Olumiant, while other products were light; leaves rev, gross margin, and spending guidance intact, while lowered its EPS range to $6.50 to $6.70 (from $9.70 to $9.90) on higher IPR&D. MRNA mixed results with larger EPS loss and now expects at least $6 billion in COVID vaccine sales this year vs earlier forecast of $6 billion to $8 billion. NVO results better as headline numbers and guidance in line with the pre-release, with some additional FX adjustments.

Stock GAINERS

·     AFRM +13%; after CNBC reported AMZN to unveil buy now, pay later option from Affirm for small business owners https://tinyurl.com/4tky3fck

·     CAR +15%; delivered Q3 adj EBITDA of $907M, beating the Street by $80M and CAR’s guidance by $57M while share repurchase was also robust, at $470M, which in part drove the $2.60 EPS beat.

·     DASH +17%; posted a smaller Q4 EPS loss on better adj EBITDA of $344Mm vs est. $255.14Mm on revs $2.16B vs est. $2.093B.

·     FSLY +20%; reported 3Q revenue / EBITDA of $127.8M / $0.7M vs. Street at $126.6M / $(2.1)M, respectively; Raymond James said with Signal Sciences accounting for ~14% of 3Q revenue, this implies ~$110M in CDN revenue.

·     LMND +37%; as results modestly beat expectations on both the top and bottom lines and management accelerated its timetable for cash flow breakeven.

·     PLTR +21%; posts Q3 revs of $558.2M and EPS of $0.07 per share, both just above consensus and said sees strong interest in the “AI bootcamps” it launched in Oct to give clients access for one to five days; guides Q4 revs $599M-$603M vs. est. $600.5M.

·     ROKU +25%; reported 3Q revenue and EBITDA solidly ahead of expectations and guidance for 4Q was a touch ahead in terms of revenue but solidly above EBITDA.

·     SBUX +11%; Q4 adj EPS $1.06 vs. est. $0.92; Q4 revs $9.4B vs. est. $8.76B; Q4 Comp Store Sales +8% globally vs. est. +6.5%, +8% in North America and +5% in International.

·     SHOP +22%; surges as revs rose 25% y/y to $1.71B topping the $1.67B estimate, and EPS beat helped by lower expenses while sees FY23 revenue up at mid-20s percentage rate on y/y basis.

Stock LAGGARDS

·     CFLT -42%; reported disappointing RPO (decelerating to 24% from 34%) and F4Q23 outlook, from incremental macro pressure and an accelerated sales incentive transition plan; downgraded at Bank America and Canaccord after results.

·     CROX -8%; cuts FY revenue forecast to $3.91B-$3.94B from the previous $4B-$4.1B and EPS to $11.55-$11.85 per share down from earlier view of $11.83-$12.22 per share after Q3 beat.

·     MRNA -9%; mixed results with larger EPS loss and now expects at least $6 billion in COVID vaccine sales this year vs earlier forecast of $6 billion to $8 billion.

·     RVLV -5%; announced mixed results, with revenue faring slightly better than expectations while margins and EBITDA faced pressure (downgraded at KeyBanc).

·     SEDG -14%; tumbles for the 2^nd time in 2 weeks, lowering guidance again after Q3 adj EPS $0.55 missed the est. $1.12 and revs $725.3M vs. est. $783.92; guides Q4 revenue $300M-$350M, below consensus $718.73M.

·     TNDM -10%; posts 3Q miss and another guidance reduction, with the company lowering its ’23 rev guidance to at least $765M (from at least $785M, -$20M vs. -$108M at midpoint cut last qtr).

·     XRAY -10%; lowered FY EPS to $1.80-$1.85 from $1.92-$2.02 and cut sales view to $3.9B-$3.94B from $3.98B-$4.02B, estimate $1.98 after Q3 sales miss – other dental stocks ALGN, PDCO, HSIC