Early Look

Tuesday, April 8, 2025

U.S. futures are looking higher as global stock markets rebound overnight despite sharp commentary by China’s Commerce Ministry who said it “resolutely opposes” U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat of escalating tariffs and vowed to take countermeasures to safeguard its own rights and interests. The comments came after Trump said he would impose an additional 50% duty on U.S. imports from China Wednesday, if Beijing does not withdraw the 34% tariff it imposed on American products last week. “The U.S. threat to escalate tariffs on China is a mistake on top of a mistake,” the statement said, according to a CNBC translation. “China will never accept it. If the U.S. insists on its own way, China will fight to the end.” These comments failed to push the market lower overnight. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index surged 1,876 points or 6% to 33,012, the Shanghai Index gained 48 points to 3,145, and the Hang Seng Index advanced 299 points or 1.51% to 20,127. In Europe, stocks bounced for the first time in 4-days as the German DAX is higher by 145 points to 19,935, while the FTSE 100 is up 98 points to 7,800. President Donald Trump rejected a European Union proposal to drop tariffs on all bilateral trade in industrial goods with the US.

In stock news, shares of U.S. health insurers jumped (HUM, CVS, ELV, CI, UNH, CNC, MOH) after a bigger-than-expected increase in the government’s reimbursement rates for Medicare Advantage plans in 2026. The U.S. announced a 5.06% average increase in payments to private insurers that run Medicare Advantage plans for people aged 65 and older. The increase was more than double the amount proposed in January. Markets also brace for the start of the earnings season this Friday with big banks (JPM, WFC, MS) kicking things off. Note the S&P 500 (SPX) is down 13.9% in the first 65 trading days of 2025, the 5th worst startsto a year in history. Bitcoin was down 32% from its January peak this morning, giving back nearly all of its gains since the November 2024 election. This is its largest drawdown since last August (both stats as per Charlie Bilello).

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -349.26 points, or 0.91%, to 37,965.60
• The Nasdaq Composite gained 15.48 points, or 0.10%, to 15,603.26
• The Russell 2000 Index declined -16.89 points, or 0.92% to 1,810.14

• 7:45 AM EST ICSC Weekly Retail Sales
• 8:55 AM EST                Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
• 1:00 PM EST US Treasury to auction $58B in 3-year notes
• 4:30 PM EST API Weekly Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: AEHR CALM KRUS MAMA

• Needham 24th Annual Virtual Healthcare Conference, 4/7-4/10

• Levi Strauss (LEVI) Q1 EPS $0.38 vs. est. $0.28; Q1 revs rose 3.1% y/y to $1.53B vs. est. $1.54B; backs FY25 EPS view of $1.20-$1.25, vs. consensus $1.25 and backs FY25 revenue growth view of 3.5%-4.5%; said anticipates minimal tariff impact to Q2 margin outlook; for Q1 Overall, direct-to-consumer revenue increased 9%, while wholesale fell 3%.
• MercadoLibre (MELI) said it plans to ramp up investments in Brazil by 48% in local currency this year focused on logistics, technology and marketing while hiring an additional 14,000 people

• Fluence Energy (FLNC) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays.
• Greenbrier (GBX) Q2 adj EPS $1.69, vs. consensus $1.78; forecasts FY revs $3.15B-$3.35B, below prior forecast $3.35B-$3.65B; raises quarterly dividend 7% to 32c per share.
• In Transports, Citigroup upgraded shares of rail, truckers and logistics companies, raising the rating on Union Pacific (UNP), Old Dominion (ODFL), Knight-Swift (KNX) to Buy from neutral and upgraded Schneider (SNDR) and Werner (WERN) to Neutral from Sell.

• Charles Schwab (SCHW) upgraded to Overweight at Morgan Stanley on defensiveness, but lower tgt to $76.
• CME Group (CME) upgraded to Overweight at Morgan Stanley and raised tgt to $301 from $263
• Lemonade (LMND) downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley; cut tgt to $24.
• Nasdaq (NDAQ) downgraded to Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley on slower growth; cut tgt to $74.
• Robinhood (HOOD) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley; cut tgt to $40 from $90.
• Tradeweb Markets (TW) downgraded to Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley on valuation.

• CVS Health (CVS) on Tuesday named United Parcel Service executive Brian Newman as its new chief financial officer, in the first top management change for the health insurer under the leadership of CEO David Joyner.
• Pacira BioSciences, Inc. (PCRX) shares jumped after announcing that it has settled its litigations with Fresenius Kabi USA, LLC (Fresenius), Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals Co., Ltd., and eVenus Pharmaceuticals Laboratories, Inc. related to patents for EXPAREL(R) (bupivacaine liposome injectable suspension).

• HP Enterprise (HPE) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley and cut tgt to $14.
• Infineon Technologies AG (IFNNY) and Marvell Technology, Inc. (MRVL) entered into a transaction agreement for the sale of Marvell’s Automotive Ethernet business for a purchase price of $2.5 billion in cash. With the acquisition, Infineon is accelerating its system capabilities for software-defined vehicles.
• Samsung (SSNLF) noted a much smaller-than-feared 0.2% fall in Q1 operating profit, boosted by solid memory chip sales and strong smartphone demand, partly driven by customers concerned about U.S. tariffs; estimated an operating profit of 6.6 trillion won ($4.49B) for the Q1 period, well above a 5.1 trillion won LSEG est.