Early Look

Thursday, April 25, 2024

Futures	Up/Down	%	Last
Dow	-235.00	0.61%	38,445
S&P 500	-31.25	0.62%	5,075
Nasdaq	-168.50	0.96%	17,495

 

 

U.S. stock markets closed mixed on Thursday, but are pointing to a lower open this morning, especially for technology and social media stocks after Meta (META) reported better quarterly results, but forecasts of higher expenses (amid investments in new AI products) and lighter-than-expected revenue weighed heavily on the stock, with shares down over -13% this morning (AMZN, SNAP, PINS all down in reaction), while IBM also drops -9% pre mkt on its results. Equity markets now look to results from GOOGL and MSFT after the bell tonight to rebound tech. Other big earnings report this morning from Dow components MRK (+2% pre mkt) and CAT (-4% pre mkt) also moving the futures. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index tumbled -831 points or 2.16% to 37,628, the Shanghai Index rose 8 points to 3,052, and the Hang Seng Index rose 83 points to 17,284. In Europe, the German DAX is down -112 points to 17,976, while the FTSE 100 rises 53 points to 8,094. While earnings still remains the key driver this week, key economic data is coming up at 8:30 AM as Real GDP likely grew 2.5% in Q1, down from 3.4% prior and an average for the U.S. of 4.2% in 2H23; Personal Consumption expected to rise 3.0% (vs. 3.3% prior) with GDP Price index at 3.0% (prior 1.6%) and the core PCE Price Index Q/Q est. to rise to 3.4% (from 2.0% prior) – comes ahead of March PCE data Friday. A cooler reading on the Q1 PCE today might help ease market concerns. In commodity futures, West Texas Intermediate and Brent were little changed, aided by a drawdown in US stockpiles as well as a modestly lower dollar. The yen prints fresh cycle-lows against the dollar after weakening past 155 for the first time since 1990 while the Treasury 10-year yield holds 4.65%.

 

Market Closing Prices Yesterday

·    The S&P 500 Index edged higher 1.08 points, or 0.02%, to 5,071.63.

·    The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -42.77 points, or 0.11%, to 38,460.92.

·    The Nasdaq Composite gained 16.11 points, or 0.10%, to 15,712.75.

·    The Russell 2000 Index declined -7.22 points, or 0.36% to 1,995.43.

 

Economic Calendar for Today

·    8:30 AM ET                  Weekly Jobless Claims…est. 215K

·    8:30 AM ET                  Continuing Claims…est. 1.805M

·    8:30 AM ET                  Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Advance for Q1…est. 2.5% (prior 3.4%)

·    8:30 AM ET                  GDP Consumer Spending for Q1…est. +3.0%

·    8:30 AM ET                  GDP Price Deflator for Q1…est. +3.0% (prior +1.7%)

·    8:30 AM ET                  PCE Prices Advance for Q1…est.

·    8:30 AM ET                  Core PCE Prices Advance for Q1…est. +3.4% (vs. prior +2.0%)

·    8:30 AM ET                  Advance Goods Trade Balance for March…est. …est. (-$91.0B)

·    10:00 AM ET                Pending Home Sales M/M for March…est. +0.8%

·    10:30 AM ET                Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data

·    11:00 AM ET                Kansas City Fed Manufacturing for April…est. (-5.0)

·    1:00 PM ET                   US Treasury to sell $43B in 7-year notes.

 

Earnings Calendar:

·    Earnings Before the Open: AAL ABG ADT AIT AMAL AOS ARCH BC BMY CARR CAT CBZ CFR CMCSA CMS CNX CWT DOV DOW DTE FCFS FCN FCNCA FRME GEV GWW HES HESM HOG HON HTZ IART IBCP IP ITGR KDP KEX LAZ LECO LH LUV MO MPX MRK NDAQ NEM NOC OSK OSIS PCG POOL RCL RES RS SAGE SAH SPGI SRCL STRA TPH TRU TSCO TW TXT UNP VC VLO VLY WEX WST XEL XPRO

·    Earnings After the Close: AB ACCD AJG ALEX ALSN APPF ASB ATR AVB BELFA BY BYD CINF COF COLB COLM CSL CUBE CUBI CUZ CWST DOC DXCM EIG EME EMN ERIE EW EXPO FE FICO FISI FTAI GILD GLPI GOOGL GTY HCA HIG HUBG INTC JNPR KLAC LHX MHK MSFT NOV NEW OLN ORC PECO PFG PTCT RMD ROG ROKU SBCF SKX SKYW SNAP SOI SPSC SSB SSNC TBBK TDOC TEX TMUS ULH VRSN WDC WY

 

 

Macro	Up/Down	Last
Nymex	0.09	82.90
Brent	0.09	88.11
Gold	-0.20	2,338.20
EUR/USD	0.0027	1.0732
JPY/USD	0.23	155.58
10-Year Note	-0.01	4.644%

 

 

World News

·    The bull-bear spread in the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) weekly survey was -1.8 vs 4.3 last week. Bulls fall to 32.1% from 38.3%. Neutrals rise to 33.9% from 27.8%, Bears fall to 33.9% from 34%.

 

Sector News Breakdown

Consumer

·    Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) Q1 adj EPS $13.37 vs est. $11.68 on revs $2.702B vs est. $2.659B, comps +7.0%, op mgn 16.3%; guides FY comps +mid to high single digit, +285-315 new restaurant openings and effective full-year tax rate 25-27% before items.

·    Churchill Downs (CHDN) Q1 EPS $1.08 vs. est. $0.83; Q1 revs rose 6% y/y to $590.9M vs. est. $565.42M; Live and Historical Racing segment revenue was up 15%, while TwinSpires online horse-racing betting revenue was up 18%. Gaming revenue was down 3.3%.

·    Ford Motor (F) Q1 adj EPS $0.49 vs. est. $0.42; Q1 revs $42.78B vs. est. $40.1B; raises FY adj free cash flow $6.5B-$7.5B from prior $6B-$7B and lowers top end of capex for year to $8B-$9B from $8B-$9.5B; still sees ADJ Ebit $10B to $12B; said remains on plan to achieve $2B in cost reductions in areas like materials, freight and manufacturing.

·    Meritage Homes (MTH) Q1 EPS $5.06 vs. est. $3.52; Q1 revs $1.47B vs. est. $1.29B; Q1 orders rose 14% y/y to 3,991 due primarily to a 17% increase in the average absorption pace to 4.9 per month from 4.2 per month in the first quarter of 2023; sees 2024 EPS $19.20-$20.70 vs. est. $17.69.

·    O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY) Q1 EPS $9.20 vs est. $9.26 on sales $3.98B vs est. $3.982B, comps +3.4%; sees FY revs $16.8-17.1B vs est. $16.952B, comps +3.0-5.0% and EPS $41.35-$41.85 vs est. $42.42.

·    Sleep Number (SNBR) Q1 EPS loss (-$0.33) vs. est. loss (-$0.22); Q1 revs $470.4M vs. est. $474.3M; Q1 adjusted EBITDA $37M vs. $49M last year; reiterates its outlook for 2024 adjusted EBITDA of $125M to $145M; says continue to expect a mid-single digit net sales decline for the year on a low-single digit demand decline.

·    Stellantis (STLA) said production at three assembly plants in Europe has been stopped for several days due to a strike at a plant run by supplier MA France, a spokesperson told Reuters.

·    Whirlpool (WHR) Q1 EPS $1.78 vs est. $1.68, adj EBIT mgn 4.3% on sales $4.49B vs est. $4.419B; sees FY EPS $13.00-15.00 vs est. $13.24, reaffirms FY net sales guide about $16.9B vs est. $16.837B.

·    Wyndham Hotels (WH) boosts share buyback authorization by $400M; Q1 adj EPS $0.78 vs. est. $0.75; Q1 revs $304M vs. est. $308.26M; raises 2024 adjusted EPS view to $4.18-$4.30 from $4.11-$4.23 (est. $4.21).

 

Energy

·    BHP Group (BHP) is weighing a possible acquisition of Anglo American (NGLOY), Bloomberg reported last night https://tinyurl.com/ms4hmvn6 . Separately, Anglo American (NGLOY) is considering a sale of its De Beers diamond unit and has held discussions with potential buyers, a separate process from BHP’s (BHP) takeover bid https://tinyurl.com/2s3umvtw

·    Antero Resources (AR) Q1 EPS $0.12 vs. est. $0.03; Q1 revs $1.122B vs. est. $1.06B; increasing its full year 2024 production guidance to 3.35 to 3.4 Bcfe/d, an increase at the midpoint of approximately 25 Mmcfe/d; higher than expected volumes are driven by higher liquids volumes and capital efficiency gain; Q1 net production averaged 3.4 bcfe/d, an increase of 5% from year ago period.

·    Helmerich and Payne (HP) Q2 adj EPS $0.84 vs. est. $0.85; Q2 revs -11% y/y to $687.9M vs. est. $680.3M; sees FY24 capex $500M; North America Solutions segment exited the second quarter of fiscal year 2024 with 152 active rigs with revenue per day averaging approximately $38,200/day, flat on a sequential basis.

 

Healthcare

·    Merck (MRK) Q1 adj EPS $2.07 vs. est. $1.87; Q1 revs $15.8B vs. est. $15.2B; forecasts FY adj EPS $8.53 to $8.65, forecast $8.44 to $8.59; Raises FY24 revenue view to $63.1B-$64.3B from $62.7B-$64.2B, vs. consensus $63.83B.

·    Align Technologies (ALGN) Q1 adj EPS $2.14 vs est. $1.97 on revs $997.4Mm vs est. $974.41Mm; sees Q2 revs $1.03-1.05B vs est. $1.032B, adj operating margin slightly above Q1 level; sees FY revs +6-8% vs est. +4.77%, adj op margin up slightly y/y.

·    BioMarin (BMRN) Q1 adj EPS $0.71 vs est. $0.35 on revs $648.8Mm vs est. $651.79Mm; reaffirms FY revs, adj op mgn and adj EPS guide.

·    Encompass Healthcare (EHC) Q1 adj EPS $1.12 vs est. $0.94; Q1 revs $1.32B vs. est. $1.27B; said revenue growth of 13.4% driven primarily by strong discharge growth combined with prudent expense management to drive adj EBITDA growth of 19.2%; raises FY24 adj EPS view to $3.86-$4.11 from $3.77-$4.06 and boosts FY24 revenue view to $5.25B-$5.325B from $5.2B-$5.3B.

·    ICON Plc (ICLR) Q1 adj EPS $3.47 vs est. $3.41, adj EBITDA $444Mm vs est. $439.6Mm on revs $2.09B vs est. $2.087B; sees FY revs $8.48-8.72B vs est. $8.634B and adj EPS $14.65-15.15 vs est. $14.94.

·    Molina Healthcare (MOH) Q1 adj EPS $5.73 vs est. $5.59 on revs $9.93B vs est. $9.441B; reaffirms FY guide for premium revs approx $38B, sees FY adj EPS at least $23.50 vs est. $23.56.

·    Universal Health Services (UHS) Q1 adj EPS $3.70 vs est. $3.16 on revs $3.844B vs est. $3.775B.

·    Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) Q1 EPS loss (-$0.26) vs. est. loss (-$0.28); Q1 cash and cash equivalents $195.6M vs. $18.4M y/y; short-term investments $767.4M vs. $117.3M y/y.

 

Industrials and Materials

·    Caterpillar (CAT) Q1 adj EPS $5.60, est. $5.13; Q1 revs $15.8B vs. est. $16.12B; Q1 operating profit $3.51M vs. est. $3.31M; says North America machines retail sales for q1 2024 down 1%, says world machines retail sales for q1 2024 down 9%, and says Asia/Pacific machines retail sales for q1 2024 down 10%; expects Q2 2024 sales to be lower y/y.

·    Knight-Swift (KNX) Q1 adj EPS $0.12 vs. est. $0.20; Q1 revs rose 11.3% y/y to $1.82B vs. est. $1.82B; overall for Q1 reported a loss citing a more-challenging-than-expected pricing environment and weather disruption; guides Q2 EPS $0.31-$0.35 vs. est. $0.49.

·    Landstar System (LSTR) Q1 EPS $1.32 vs. est. $1.28; Q1 revs $1.17B vs. est. $1.12B.

·    Oshkosh (OSK) Q1 EPS $2.89 v $2.26e; Q1 sales $2.54B v $2.51B; Q1 Operating Margin +410 bps YoY; ‘24 EPS Guide $11.25 v $10.33 and FY24 Rev Guide $10.7B v $10.4B estimate.

·    Rollins Inc. (ROL) Q1 EPS $0.19 vs est. $0.20, adj EBITDA $161Mm vs est. $157.5Mm on revs $748Mm vs est. $739.1Mm.

·    United Rentals (URI) Q1 adj EPS $9.15 vs est. $8.33, adj EBITDA $1.587B vs est. $1.552B on revs $3.485B vs est. $3.442B; sees FY revs $14.95-15.45B vs est. $15.036B and adj EBITDA $7.04-7.29B vs est. $7.066B.

 

Technology, Media & Telecom

·    Meta Inc. (META) Q1 EPS $4.71 vs. est. $4.32; Q1 revs $36.46B vs. est. $36.16B; Q1 Ad revs $35.64B, Reality labs revenue $440M (light), sees Q2 revenue $36.5B-$39B vs. est. $38.24B; Daily Active people was 3.24B on avg for March; sees FY24 Total Expenses $96B-$99B (from $94B-$99B); said continues to expect operating losses for reality labs to increase meaningfully y/y; sees year capex for 2024 $35B-$40B up from prior $30B-$37B.

·    IBM Corp. (IBM) confirms prior reports they will buy HashiCorp (HCP) in a deal valued at $6.4 billion, paying $35 per share; Q1 adj EPS $1.68 vs. est. $1.60; Q1 revs $14.5B vs. est. $14.55B; continues to expect constant currency revenue growth consistent with its mid-single digit model; continues to expect about $12 billion in free cash flow.

·    Impinj (PI) Q1 adj EPS $0.21 vs. est. $0.11; Q1 revs $76.8M vs. est. $73.57M; sees Q2 adjusted EPS $0.72-$0.77 on revs $96M-$99M, above consensus $0.19/$78.93M; Q1 GAAP gross margin of 48.9%; non-GAAP gross margin of 51.5%.

·    Lam Research (LRCX) Q3 adj EPS $7.79 vs est. $7.30 on revs $3.79B vs est. $3.482B, adj gr mgn 48.7%; sees Q4 revs $3.5-4.1B vs est. $3.724B and adj EPS $6.75-8.25 vs est. $7.33.

·    Rubrik (RBRK) 23.5M share IPO priced at $32.00 as the deal size was increased to 23.5M shares from 23.0M and priced above the $28.00-$31.00 range.

·    ServiceNow Inc. (NOW) Q1 adj EPS $3.41 vs est. $3.14 on revs $2.603B vs est. $2.585B, adj FCF $1.225B; sees Q2 subscription revs $2.525-2.53B and FY subscription revs $10.56-10.575B.

·    Synopsys (SNPS) announced broad EDA and IP collaborations with TSMC (TSM) for advanced node designs and have been deployed across a range of AI, high-performance computing, and mobile designs.

·    Teradyne Inc. (TER) Q1 EPS $0.51 vs. est. $0.33; Q1 revs $600M vs. est. $566.3M; sees Q2 EPS 64c-84c on revs $665M-$725M, both above consensus of $0.60 and $636.6M respectively.

·    Tyler Technologies (TYL) Q1 adj EPS $2.20 vs est. $2.04 on revs $512.4Mm vs est. $507.15Mm; sees FY revs $2.11-2.14B vs est. $2.117B and adj EPS $9.10-9.30 vs est. $9.02.

·    WEX (WEX) announced that it has reached a new long-term agreement with Booking.com (BKNG), effective April 2024.