Morning Preview: April 30, 2025

Early Look

Wednesday, April 30, 2025

Futures

Up/Down

%

Last

Dow

-20.00

0.05%

40,638

S&P 500

-13.25

0.24%

5,570

Nasdaq

-78.50

0.40%

19,564

 

 

Following its 6th straight day of gains on Tuesday, S&P futures (Spuz) are looking at a slightly weaker open and Nasdaq even more so following a round of mixed earnings and guidance reports overnight. Stocks gained ground on Tuesday as President Trump signed an Executive Order paring back key parts of tariffs affecting automakers, and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said that a trade deal with an unnamed country was “done.” However, after the close shares of BKNG in online travel, SBUX in restaurants, FSLR in solar, WERN in transportation, and SMCI, SNAP, TENB in technology all declined sharply following results. This morning, GEHC and HUM in healthcare are both moving higher post results. After the extended move higher the last 2 weeks, Bespoke invest tweets: “The S&P needs to close above 5,611.85 tomorrow for this to be the first month since 1952 (when the 5-day trading week began) to finish green after seeing an intra-month drop of 10%+.” Meanwhile, the Nasdaq is currently up on the month after the early tumble. Heading into the last day of April, investors will get a flurry of key economic data reports including ADP private payrolls, Q1 GDP, personal income/spending, monthly core PCE inflation data and pending home sales. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index gained 205 points to 36,045, the Shanghai Index fell -7 points to 3,279, and the Hang Seng Index rose 11 points to 22,119. In Europe, the German DAX is up 132 points to 22,557, while the FTSE 100 adds 10 points to 8,473. On this last day of the month, Brent crude oil is headed for its largest monthly decline since November 2021 on signs the US-led trade war is hurting economic growth and energy demand at a time when the OPEC+ alliance has been loosening supply curbs. Attention will turn back to tech earnings after the close as both Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta (META) are expected to report earnings.

 

Market Closing Prices Yesterday

  • The S&P 500 Index climbed 32.08 points, or 0.58%, to 5,560.83
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 300.03 points, or 0.75%, to 40,527
  • The Nasdaq Composite gained 95.19 points, or 0.55%, to 17,461.32
  • The Russell 2000 Index advanced 10.96 points, or 0.56% to 1,976.51

Economic Calendar for Today

  • 7:00 AM ET MBA Mortgage Applications Data
  • 8:15 AM ET ADP Private Payroll Employment data for April…est. 115K (prior +155K)
  • 8:30 AM ET                  Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Q1-Advance…est. +0.3% (prior +2.4%)
  • 8:30 AM ET GDP Price Deflator, Q1-A…est. +3.0% (prior +2.3%)
  • 8:30 AM ET                  Consumer Spending for Q1…prior +4.0%
  • 8:30 AM ET PCE Prices Advance for Q1…prior +2.4%
  • 8:30 AM ET                  Core PCE Prices Advance for Q1…est. +3.3% (prior +2.6%)
  • 8:30 AM ET                  Employment Costs for Q1…est. +0.9%
  • 9:45 AM ET                  Chicago PMI for April…est. 45.5 (prior 47.6)
  • 10:00 AM ET                Personal Income M/M for March…est. +0.4% (prior +0.8%)
  • 10:00 AM ET                Personal Spending M/M for March…prior +0.1%
  • 10:00 AM ET PCE Price Index M/M for March…est. 0.0% (prior +0.3%)
  • 10:00 AM ET PCE Price Index Y/Y for March…est. +2.2% (prior +2.5%)
  • 10:00 AM ET                Core PCE Index M/M for March…est. +0.1% (prior +0.4%)
  • 10:00 AM ET                Core PCE Index Y/Y for March…est. +2.6% (prior +2.8%)
  • 10:00 AM ET                Pending Home Sales M/M for March…est. +1.0%
  • 10:30 AM ET                Weekly DOE Inventory Data

Earnings Calendar:

  • Earnings Before the Open: ADP AER AVT BIP BLCO BLFY BLKB CAT CHEF CLH COCO CSTM CTS DAN DTM EME ETSY EVR EXTR FDP FSS GEHC GNRC GRMN GSK GTES HES HESM HUM IONS IP ITW LANC LECO LINE MLM NAVI NCLH NWL OSK OTLY PAG PEG PPL PSN REYN ROCK SITE SLGN SMR SR STLA SWK SXC TE TKR TT TW UTHR VMC WING WNC XPO YUM YUMC
  • Earnings After the Close: ACT AEIS AFL AIN ALB ALGN ALL AM ANSS AR ARAY ASH AVB AWK AX AXS BE BHC CACC CAKE CCI CDNA CFLT CGNX CHRW CNMD CNXN CP CRK CTSH CWAN CWEN DLX EBAY EG ENVX EQIX FMC FORM FTAI GFL GH GKOS GL HCC HLF HOOD HST ICLR INVH IRT IVT KLAC MAA MATW MCW MDXG MET META MGM MSFT MTG NLY NTGR NYMT OPK PPC PRU PSA PTC QCOM RDN RGR RM RUSHA RWT RYI RYN SCI SFM SKT SNBR TDOC TNDM TROX TS TTMI TWI UDMY UDR UIS VICI VTR WAY WDC WEX WH WHD

Other Key Events:

  • RSA Conference 20205, 4/28-5/1, in San Francisco, CA

 

 

Macro

Up/Down

Last

Nymex

-0.56

59.86

Brent

-0.53

63.72

Gold

-48.10

3,285.50

EUR/USD

-0.0024

1.1361

JPY/USD

0.72

143.06

10-Year Note

-0.008

4.166%

 

Sector News Breakdown

Consumer

  • Booking Holdings (BKNG) Q1 adj EPS $24.81, vs est. $17.57; Q1 revs $4.8B vs. est. $4.58B; Q1 gross bookings grew 7% compared to last year to $46.7B; Q1 room nights booked increased 7% y/y to 319M; Q1 Marketing expense $1.78B, +10% y/y, Q1 Gross agency bookings $15.5B, -13% y/y.
  • Caesar’s Entertainment (CZR) Q1 EPS loss (-$0.54) and revs $2.8B vs. est. $2.79B; Q1 Same-Store Adjusted EBITDA of $884M Vs $849M for Comparable Prior-Yr Period; Q1 Digital Adjusted EBITDA of $43M Vs $5M for Comparable Prior-Yr Period
  • Camping World (CWH) Q1 adjusted EPS loss (-$0.16) vs. est. loss (-$0.20); Q1 revs $1.4B vs. est. $1.42B; Q1 same-store new vehicle unit sales decreased -2%; Q1 gross margins 30.4%.
  • Mondelez (MDLZ) Q1 revs $9.31B vs. est. $9.325B; Q1 adj EPS $0.74 vs. est. $0.66; Q1 gross margin 26.1%; guided FY revenue growth 5% and FY adj EPS to decline approximately 10% on a constant currency basis due to unprecedented cocoa cost inflation; sees year FY free cash flow of $3+ bln.
  • Starbucks (SBUX) Q2 adj EPS $0.41 vs est. $0.49 on revs $8.8B vs est. $8.818B, global comps -1% vs est. -0.26%, adj op mgn 8.2%.
  • Stride Inc. (LRN) Q3 EPS $2.02 vs est. $2.01, adj EBITDA $168.3Mm vs est. $159.7Mm on revs $613.4Mm vs est. $590Mm; raises FY revs guide to $2.37-2.385B vs est. $2.339B and adj op Inc to $455-465Mm vs est. $411.76Mm.

Energy,

  • Edison International (EIX) Q1 adj EPS $1.37 vs est. $1.20 on revs $3.81B vs est. $4.26B; says Eaton Fire investigation continues, affirmed FY core EPS $5.94-6.34 vs est. $6.01 and has continued confidence in delivering 5-7% core EPS growth from 2025-2028 ($6.74-7.14).
  • First Solar (FSLR) shares fall; Q1 EPS $1.95 vs est. $2.50 on sales $800Mm vs est. $839.28Mm; guides FY net sales $4.5-5.5B vs prior $5.3-5.8B and est. $5.462B, op Inc $1.45-2.0B vs prior $1.95-2.3B and EPS $12.50-17.50 vs prior $17.00-20.00 and est. $18.14.
  • ONEOK (OKE) Q1 EPS $1.04 vs est. $1.25, adj EBITDA $1.775B vs est. $1.926B.

Financials

  • Arch Capital Group (ACGL) Q1 EPS $1.48 vs est. $1.32 on gross premiums written $6.463B vs est. $6.613B, exp ratio 28.3%.
  • CoStar Group (CSGP) Q1 EPS ($0.04) vs est. $0.10 on revs $732Mm vs est. $730Mm; guides Q2 revs $770-775Mm vs est. $786.94Mm and adj EBITDA $50-60Mm vs est. $67.72Mm and FY revs $3.115-3.155B vs est. $3.155B and adj EBITDA $355-385Mm vs est. $379.65Mm.
  • Fair Isaac (FICO) Q2 adj EPS $7.81 vs est. $7.44 on revs $498.735Mm vs est. $499.8Mm; sees FY revs $1.98B vs est. $1.984B and adj EPS $28.58 vs est. $28.96.
  • Freshworks (FRSH) Q1 adj EPS $0.18 vs est. $0.13 on revs $196.273Mm vs est. $191.89Mm; guides Q2 revs $197.3-200.3Mm vs est. $197.99Mm and adj EPS $0.10-0.12 vs est. $0.11; sees FY revs $815.3-824.3Mm and adj EPS $0.56-0.58 vs est. $0.53.
  • Unum Group (UNM) Q1 adj EPS $2.04 vs est. $2.19 on revs $3.092B vs est. $3.343B; sees FY after-tax adj op Inc growth 6-10% yr/yr.
  • Visa Inc. (V) authorizes a new $30B share buyback program; Q2 adj EPS $2.76 vs. est. $2.68; Q2 revs $9.6B vs. est. $9.55B; Q2 cross-border volume excluding intra-Europe up 13%, Q2 processed transactions up 9% and Q2 payments volume increased 8% over prior year on a constant-dollar basis; outlook FY net rev growth low double-digit on adj constant dollar basis.

REITs

  • Boston Properties (BXP) Q1 FFO $1.64 vs. est. $1.65; Q1 revenue rose 3.1% y/y to $865.2M vs. est. $832.76M; narrows FY25 FFO view to $6.80-$6.92, from $6.77-$6/95 and vs. consensus $6.90; total portfolio occupancy for the first quarter was 86.9%.
  • Equity Residential (EQR) Q1 FFO $0.95 vs. est. $0.93; Q1 revs $760.81M vs. est. $769.44M; Q1 same store revenues increased 2.2% y/y, same store expenses increased 4.1% and same store Net Operating Income (NOI) increased 1.3%; resident Turnover of only 7.9% in the first quarter of 2025 was the lowest in its history.
  • Extra Space Storage (EXR) Q1 core FFO $2.00, vs. est. $1.96; Q1 revs $820M vs. est. $823.42M; Q1 same-store revenue increased by 0.3% and same-store net operating income decreased by (-1.2%) y/y; sees FY25 core FFO $8.00-$8.30, vs. consensus $8.16.
  • Essex Property (ESS) Q1 core FFO $3.97 vs. est. $3.92; Achieved same-property revenue and net operating income (“NOI”) growth of 3.4% and 3.3%, respectively y/y; Increased the dividend by 4.9% to an annual distribution of $10.28 per common share; reaffirmed full-year ranges.
  • Kite Realty (KRG) Q1 core FFO/SHR $0.53 vs est. $0.51 on revs $221.8Mm vs est. $211.07Mm; guides FY core FFO/SHR $2.00-2.06 vs est. $2.06.
  • Regency Centers (REG) Q1 FFO $1.15 vs. est. $1.14; Q1 increased Same Property NOI y/y, excluding lease termination fees, by 4.3%. Same Property percent leased ended the quarter at 96.5%, an increase of 100 basis points y/y, and Same Property percent commenced ended the quarter at 93.5%, up 170 basis points y/y.

Healthcare

  • BridgeBio’s (BBIO) Q1 revs fell -45% y/y to $116.6M vs. est. $59.5M; Q4 operating loss $104.4M vs. profit $0.34M y/y, est. loss $169.9M; Q4 R&D expenses $111.4M, -21% y/y; its recently approved heart drug brought in $36.7M in sales in Q1, blowing past expectations of $12M.
  • GE HealthCare (GEHC) announces $1B share repurchase program; Q1 adj EPS $1.01 vs. est. $0.91; Q1 revenue $4.8B vs. est. $4.66B; cuts FY25 adjusted EPS view to $3.90-$4.10 from $4.61-$4.75; backs FY25 organic revenue growth of 2%-3% year-over-year; cuts FY25 free cash flow view to at least $1.2B (from $1.75B).
  • Humana (HUM) Q1 adj EPS $11.58 vs. est. $10.07; Q1 revs $32.11B vs. est. $32.22B; backs FY25 adjusted EPS view ~$16.25, vs. consensus $16.35 and affirms FY 2025 Insurance segment benefit ratio guidance range of 90.1%-90.5%.

Industrials and Materials

  • Caterpillar (CAT) Q1 adj EPS $4.25, vs. est. $4.32; Q1 revs +1.2% y/y to $1.55B vs. est. $1.63B, hurt by softer demand due to economic uncertainty; Q1 sales were lower across its three primary segments; said expect Q2 2025 sales and revenues to be similar to Q2 2024; expect Q2 adj operating profit margin1 to be lower than Q2 2024, primarily due to lower price realization, before any tariff impact.
  • Celanese Corporation (CE) and Li Auto (LI) announced a joint initiative to launch an innovative ultra-low emission material, Hostaform POM XAP3, in May.
  • Flowserve Corp. (FLS) Q1 adj EPS $0.72 vs est. $0.60 on sales $1.145B vs est. $1.110B; reaffirms FY guide organic sales +3-5%, total sales +5-7% vs est. +5.18% and adj EPS $3.10-3.30 vs est. $3.15.
  • O-I Glass (OI) Q1 EPS $0.40 vs. est. $0.24; Q1 revs $1.6B vs. est. $1.56B; sees FY25 adjusted EPS $1.20-$1.50, vs. consensus $1.28; expects free cash flow of between $150M-$200M in 2025, a significant improvement from the $128M use of cash in 2024.
  • PPG Industries (PPG) Q1 adj EPS $1.72 vs est. $1.62 on sales $3.7B vs est. $3.668B; reaffirms FY guide adj EPS $7.75-8.05 vs est. $7.79.
  • Sonoco (SON) Q1 EPS $1.38 vs. est. $1.41; Q1 revs $1.71B vs. est. $2.04B; reaffirmed full-year guidance to grow adj net income by approximately 20% and adj ebitda by approximately 30%; raised quarterly dividend.
  • Veralto Corp. (VLTO) Q1 adj EPS $0.95 vs est. $0.87 on sales $1.332B vs est. $1.28B, adj op mgn 25%; guides Q2 adj core sales +low-mid-single and adj EPS $0.84-0.88 vs est. $0.91.
  • Werner Enterprises (WERN) Q1 adj EPS loss (-$0.12) vs. est. $0.12; Q1 revs $712.14M vs. est. $738.2M; Q1 operating loss was $5.8M vs. $15.6M operating income prior year; Q1 operating margin of (0.8%), decreased 280 basis points from 2.0%; non-GAAP adjusted operating margin of (0.3%), decreased 270 basis points.

Technology, Media & Telecom

  • Seagate Technology (STX) Q3 EPS $1.90 vs. est. $1.74; Q3 revs $2.16B vs. est. $2.13B; sees Q4 EPS $2.40, plus or minus $0.20 vs. est. $2.05 and Q4 revs of $2.40B, plus or minus $150M vs. est. $2.28B.
  • ExlService Holdings (EXLS) Q1 adj EPS $0.48 vs est. $0.44 on revs $501Mm vs est. $503.09Mm, adj op mgn 20.1%; sees FY revs $2.035-2.065B vs est. $2.054B and adj EPS $1.83-1.89 vs est. $1.87.
  • Logitech Int’l (LOGI) Q4 EPS $0.93 vs. est. $0.86; Q4 revs $1.01B vs. est. $1.04B; guides Q1 revs $1.1B-$1.5B vs. est. $1.07B and sees non-GAAP operating income $155M-$185M; notes withdrawal of outlook for FY26.
  • Qorvo (QRVO) Q4 adj EPS $1.42 vs est. $1.00 on revs $869.5Mm vs est. $850.4Mm, adj gr mgn 45.9%; guides Q1 revs $750-800Mm vs est. $756.98Mm, adj gr mgn 42-44% and adj EPS $0.50-0.75 vs est. $0.60.
  • Snap Inc. (SNAP) shares fall; Q1 EPS loss (-$0.04) vs. est. $0.08; Q1 revs rose 14% y/y to $1.36B vs. est. $1.34B; Q1 DAUs 460M, up 38M, or 9% y/y; Total active advertisers grew 60% from a year earlier in Q1; said its monthly active users reached 900 million, on track to achieve its target of 1B; trimmed its full-year forecast for adj operating expenses to between $2.65B-$2.7B from prior $2.7B-$2.75B.
  • Super Micro Computer Inc (SMCI) shares fall after saying during Q3 some delayed customer platform decisions moved sales into Q4; guided Q3 adjusted EPS 29c to 31c down from previous range of 46c-62c and sales $4.5B-$4.6B (from $5B-$6B) vs. est. $5.35B.
  • Tenable Holdings (TENB) Q1 adj EPS $0.36 vs est. $0.287 on revs $239.1Mm vs est. $233.74Mm; guides Q2 revs $241-243Mm vs est. $240.5Mm and adj EPS $0.29-0.31 vs est. $0.35; sees FY revs $970-980Mm vs est. $979.84Mm and adj EPS $1.44-1.52 vs est. $1.49.
  • Vicor Corp. (VICR) Q1 EPS $0.06 vs est. $0.29 on revs $94Mm vs est. $96.63Mm.

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Market commentary provided by Hammerstone Markets, Inc, a firm separate from and not affiliated with Regal Securities. Regal Securities has not participated in the creation of the content, and does not explicitly or implicitly endorse the content.