Early Look

Tuesday, August 6, 2024

U.S. futures are looking at a modest rebound, with S&P futures (Spuz) +0.8% at 5,260 (off overnight highs 5,305), trying to snap a 3-day streak that saw the index fall off highs of 5,600 to start the month. The 3-day market pullback has been vicious, as the Nasdaq is down roughly -8% MTD (with the SOX -13.6% in 3-days), the Russell 2000 is down about -10% in 3-days (tapped its 200dma support Monday), while the Dow is -5.25% MTD and the S&P -6% coming into the day. Investors/markets have been focused on a bevy of concerns, from interest rates, central banks, geopolitical fears, currency markets/carry trade, weaker economic data raising recession fears, and earnings – all leading to lots of market volatility after a massive run this year to record highs just a few short weeks ago. The S&P 500 has retreated over 8% from its July 16 high. More earnings today and this week, but macro continues to dominate for the time being. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index gained 3,217 points or rallied 10% to 34,675 (followed a -12.4% rout the day prior), the Shanghai Index rose 6 points to 2,867, and the Hang Seng Index fell -51 points to 16,647. In Europe, the German DAX is up 3 points to 17,342, while the FTSE 100 is down a few points at 8,000. The US dollar edges higher vs. the Japanese yen to around 144.81, up from prior day but off overnight highs above 146 (USDJPY managed to peak at 146.46, after falling as low as 141.70 on Monday). The CBOE Volatility index (VIX) tumbles -17% overnight to 32 level after yesterday’s spike that saw highs of 65.73 early Monday.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -1,033.99 points, or 2.60%, to 38,703.27.
• The Nasdaq Composite plunged -576.08 points, or 3.43%, to 16,200.08.
• The Russell 2000 Index declined -70.15 points, or 3.33% to 2,039.16.

• 8:30 AM ET                  International Trade for June
• 8:55 AM ET                  Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
• 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell $58B in 3-year notes
• 4:30 PM ET API Weekly Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: AAOI ABNB ACAD AFG AGL AIN AIZ ALAB ALTO AMGN AMSC ANDE ANGI APEI AQST ARIS ARKO ASH ATGE AXON AZPN BGS BL CART CERT CLW COOK CPNG CRC CRCT CRUS CRVS DYRX DO DVN DVAX DVN EMKR EVCM EXEL FGEN FLYW FSK FTEK FTK FTNT GCT GMED GMRE GNL GO GOOD GPOR GPRO HALO HDSN HL HRTG HY IAC IFF ILMN INGN INSP IPAR IRBT JACK LAZR LGND LMB LOPE LRN LUMN MASI MBI MEG MOS MTTR MYGN NVRO ORA OUT PARR PETS PGNY PLUS POWI PR PRCH QLYS RDDT RDFN REAL RIGL RIVN RPLAY RPD RUN RYAM SGMO SHLS SKY SNCR SSTI STE SUPN SWIM TCS TMCI TOST TREX TRIP TSE UFCS UMH UPST VCYT VECO VFC VVI VYGR WYNN

• JP Morgan 2024 Auto Conference, 8/6-8/8, in New York
• Keybanc Technology Leadership Forum 8/4-8/6, in Vail
• China Imports and Exports for July

• The United States Department of Energy on Tuesday said it is investing $2.2 billion in the nation’s power grid for eight projects across 18 states to protect against growing threats of extreme weather events, lower costs, and catalyze additional capacity.

• Lucid Group (LCID) Q2 adj EPS loss (-$0.29) vs. est. loss (-$0.26); Q2 revenue $200.6M vs. consensus $192.06M; said for Q2 produced 2,110 vehicles and on track for annual production of approximately 9,000 vehicles; said delivered 2,394 vehicles in Q2; up 70.5% compared to Q2 2023; announces public investment fund commitment of $1.5B.
• Molson Coors (TAP) Q2 non-GAAP EPS $1.92 vs. consensus $1.68 and revs $3.25B vs. consensus $3.18B; Financial volumes decreased 4.1%, primarily due to lower contract brewing volumes in the Americas segment. Brand volumes decreased 4.9%, including a 7.3% decrease in the Americas, which was partially offset by a 2.0% increase in EMEA&APAC; reaffirms 2024 full year guidance for top-line and bottom-line growth.
• Planet Fitness (PLNT) Q2 adj EPS $0.71 vs. est. $0.66; Q2 revs $300.94M vs. consensus $288.22M; Q2 system-wide same store sales increased 4.2%; backs year EPS and rev growth outlooks.
• Yum China (YUMC) Q2 EPS $0.55 vs. est. $0.47; Q2 revenue $2.68B vs. consensus $2.77B; Q2 same-store sales reached 96% of the prior year’s level and same-store transactions grew 4% y/y; says Yeung will step down as CFO Sept 30 and serve as senior adviser to CEO from oct 1, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025; FY24 targets remain unchanged.

• Diamondback Energy (FANG) Q2 EPS $4.52 vs. consensus $4.51; Q2 consolidated adjusted EBITDA was $1.7B; Q2 Average production of 276.1 MBO/d (474.7 MBOE/d); capital expenditure guidance range for the Q3 is $570M-$610M; increasing full year production guidance and lowering annual capex guidance.
• High Peak Energy (HPK) Q2 EPS $0.21 vs est. $0.50, EBITDAX $215.8Mm vs est. $246.46Mm.
• ONEOK Corp. (OKE) Q2 EPS $1.33 vs est. $1.21, adj EBITDA $1.624B vs est. $1.515B; affirms FY guidance.
• Saudi oil giant Aramco reported half-year profits of $56.3 billion, down from the year before due to weakening volumes sold amid worries about the global economy. Aramco said its overall revenue for the half-year was $220.7 billion, up from $218.6 billion the year before. Profits in 2023 were $61.9 billion, nearly $5 billion higher.
• Viper Energy (VNOM) Q2 EPS $0.61 vs. est. $0.56; Q3 revs $216.708M vs. est. $216.238M; Q2 average production of 26,352 boe/d 47,473 boe/d an increase of 3.7% from Q1 2024.
• Williams Energy (WMB) Q2 adj EPS $0.43 vs est. $0.38, adj EBITDA $1.667B vs est. $1.641B on revs $2.34B vs est. $2.428B; sees FY adj EBITDA at top half of $6.8-7.1B range vs est. $7.033B; sees FY25 adj EBITDA $7.2-7.6B vs est. $7.525B.

• Simon Property Group (SPG) Q2 FFO/shr $2.90 vs est. $2.94, EPS $1.51 vs est. $1.51 on revs $1.46B vs est. $1.47B; guides FY FFO/shr $12.80-12.90 vs est. $12.80.
• Vornado Realty (VNO) Q2 AFFO/shr $0.57 vs est. $0.54, occupancy 88.3%.

• Definitive Healthcare (DH) Q2 adj EBITDA $20.9Mm vs est. $19.42Mm on revs $63.737Mm vs est. $63.2Mm; guides Q3 revs $61-62.5Mm vs est. $63.24Mm, adj EBITDA $17.5-19Mm vs est. $19.17Mm and adj EPS $0.07-0.08 vs est. $0.09; sees FY revs $247-251M vs est. $253.22Mm, adj EBITDA $74-77M vs est. $77.71M and adj EPS $0.32-0.34 vs est. $0.34.
• Hims & Hers (HIMS) Q2 EPS $0.06 vs est. $0.04, adj EBITDA $39.3Mm vs est. $34.37Mm on revs $315.6Mm vs est. $299.94Mm; sees Q3 revs $375-380Mm vs est. $323.89Mm, adj EBITDA $35-40Mm vs est. $34.22, adj EBITDA mgn 9-11$; sees FY revs $1.37-1.40B vs est. $1.244B, adj EBITDA $140-155Mm vs est. $137.26Mm and adj EBITDA mgn 10-11%.
• Medifast Inc. (MED) Q2 adj EPS $0.92 vs est. $0.39 on revs $168.6Mm vs est. $174.05Mm; guides Q3 revs $125-145Mm vs est. $161.8Mm and EPS ($0.70)-($0.05) vs est. ($0.53).
• Mueller Water (MWA) Q3 adj EPS $0.32 vs. est. $0.22; Q3 revs $356.7M vs. est. $329.6M; sees FY24 net sales $1.285B-$1.295B, vs. consensus $1.27B; sees FY24 total SG&A expenses between $248M-$250M.
• RxSight (RXST) Q2 EPS ($0.16) vs est. ($0.22) on revs $34.9Mm vs est. $32.28Mm; guides FY revs $139-140Mm vs est. $135.07Mm and prior $132-137Mm, op exp $135-136Mm, gr mgn 68-70%.

• Avis Budget (CAR) Q2 revs $3.05B vs. consensus $3.14B; Q4 adj EBITDA $214M vs. est. $263M; Vehicle utilization was 70.2% in the quarter, with June improving by approximately one point compared to June 2023.
• CSX Corp. (CSX) Q2 EPS $0.49 vs. est. $0.48; Q2 revs flat y/y to $3.70B vs. consensus $3.7B; said Q2 total volume of 1.58M units for the quarter was 2% higher y/y; Q2 operating income of $1.45 billion decreased 1% compared to the same period in 2023 while increasing 8% from Q1 2024. CSX’s operating margin was 39.1% for the quarter, declining 50 basis points year-over-year but increasing 280 basis points sequentially.
• Hunstman Corp. (HUN) Q2 adj EPS $0.14, in-line with consensus and revs $1.57B vs. est. $1.61B; Q2 sales volumes improved 9% y/y and said expect growth comparisons to continue to be favorable in the second half of the year; though said do not expect global economic activity to change substantially from the current levels thru end of Q3.
• Summit Materials (SUM) Q2 adj EPS $0.66 vs. est. $0.61; Q2 revenue $1.07B vs. consensus $1.17B; Q2 operating income $172.9M vs. est. $190.6M; reaffirms 2024 guidance range.

• Taiwan Semi (TSM) is not only planning price hikes for 2024 but has already informed several customers in July about price increases for its 5nm and 3nm processes in 2025, Digitimes citing sources from the IC design industry. These increases, ranging from 3% to 8%, are in response to rising costs and are aimed at maintaining a long-term gross margin of 53%, passing the pressure onto their customers. https://tinyurl.com/yc2jfxmm
• Teradata (TDC) Q2 EPS $0.64 vs. est. $0.48; Q2 revenue $436M vs. consensus $447.04M; delivered strong growth in Cloud ARR, increasing 32% in constant currency, and we maintained our robust 123% net expansion rate in the cloud; guides Q3 above views and sees FY24 EPS $2.20-$2.26 vs. consensus $2.18, sees FY24 Total revenue in the range of -2% to -4% y/y and recurring revenue in the range of flat to -2% y/y, in constant currency.
• Vimeo (VMEO) Q2 EPS $0.06 vs. est. $0.01; Q2 revs $104.38M vs. consensus $99.58M; sees Q3 revenue at or below $100M vs. consensus $97.67M and sees Q3 operating loss to be about $1M and adjusted EBITDA to be in the high single-digit millions of dollars.
• Worldwide silicon wafer shipments increased 7.1% quarter-on-quarter to 3.035 billion square inches in the second quarter of 2024, but saw an 8.9% decline from the 3.33 billion square inches recorded during the same quarter last year, SEMI disclosed – Digitimes https://tinyurl.com/yxkm3yef
• ZoomInfo (ZI) Q2 adjusted EPS $0.17 vs. est. $0.23; Q2 revs $291.5M vs. consensus $307.73M; guides Q3 EPS/rev below consensus while cuts FY24 EPS view to $0.86-$0.88 from $1.00-$1.02 and lowered its FY24 revenue view to $1.19B-$1.205B from $1.255B-$1.27B vs. consensus $1.26B.