Early Look

Thursday, February 25, 2021

Futures	Up/Down	%	Last
Dow	13.00	0.04%	31,929
S&P 500	-11.25	0.28%	3,911
Nasdaq	-121.50	0.91%	13,180

 

 

U.S. futures are looking mixed following a massive rebound Wednesday, with high valuation tech companies seeing the most selling pressure early as the 10-year yield marches to its highest level this year, up 6 bps to 1.45%. Dow futures are looking flat, while Nasdaq futures are down around -0.9%. Stock futures fluctuated Thursday and bonds tumbled as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated the central bank’s commitment to supporting the economy and employment, and investors banked on more fiscal aid from the U.S. government. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index jumped 496 points to 30,168, the Shanghai Index gained 20 points to 3,585 and the Hang Seng Index advanced 355 points to move back above the 30,000 level at 30,074 after dropping more than 3% the day prior. In Europe, the German DAX is down a few points to 13,965, while the FTSE 100 rises 30 points to 6,690. House Democrats expect to pass President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief bill on Friday. It would then move to the Senate for a vote, with hopes of sending it to Biden before March 14.

 

Stocks rebounded in solid fashion Wednesday as the Dow Jones Industrials traded to a new all time high along with Dow Transports, while tech recovered following declines the prior few sessions. Fed Chairman Powell in his second day of testimony on Capitol Hill assured markets the central bank will remain in an ultra-accommodative stance for an extended period of time and chalked up the recent rise in Treasury yields as a sign the economy is improving (trying to downplay any inflation concerns the market was dealing with). The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield eases from a one-year high of high of 1.435% early morning to 1.37% late day. The reflation trade remained intact, with energy, financials and industrials leading the way higher, while large cap tech lagged. In the final hour of trading, stocks saw another round of volatility late in the recently favored Reddit short-squeeze “meme” stock names with shares of GameStop (GME) closing up 103%, AMC Entertainment (AMC) rising 19.1%.

 

Market Closing Prices Yesterday

·     The S&P 500 Index jumped 44.06 points, or 1.14%, to 3,925.43

·     The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 424.51 points, or 1.35%, to 31,961.86

·     The Nasdaq Composite gained 132.77 points, or 0.99%, to 13,597.97

·     The Russell 2000 Index advanced 53.07 points, or 2.38% to 2,284.38

 

Events Calendar for Today

·     8:30 AM ET         Weekly Jobless Claims…est. 838K

·     8:30 AM EST      Continuing Claims…est. 4.467M

·     8:30 AM EST      GDP 2^nd estimate for Q4…est. 4.2%

·     8:30 AM EST      GDP Price Deflator for Q4…est. 2.0%

·     8:30 AM EST      Consumer Spending for Q4

·     8:30 AM EST      Core PCE prices Q4-P…est. 1.4%

·     8:30 AM EST      Durable Goods Orders for January…est. 1.1%

·     10:00 AM EST    Pending Home Sales for Jan…est. 0.0%

·     10:30 AM ET      Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data

·     11:00 AM EST    Kansas City Fed Manufacturing for Feb

 

Earnings Calendar:

·     Earnings Before the Open: ACIW, AEP, AES, AGIO, AKBA, AMWD, AMT, BBY, BCRX, CARS, CCO, CLF, CNP, CNSL, CWT, DCI, DFIN, DOC, DPZ, EIX, EME, EV, EXLS, FCN, FSS, GCI, GOLF, GTN, HSC, ICPT, ITCI, KDP, LAUR, MGPI, MRNA, NCLH, NLSN, NRG, PCG, PLAN, PTCT, PWR, PZZA, RDUS, REZI, ROCK, SAFM, SEAS, SHOO, SJM, SRCL, SRE, STWD, STXS, TFX, TMX, TREE, USPH, W, WATT, WWW, XLRN, ZEUS

·     Earnings After the Close: AAOI, ABNB, ACHC, ADSK, ADT, ALEX, ALRM, ALTR, AMH, AXON, BAND, BMRN, BYND, CABO, CLI, CLNY, CRM, CUBE, CVNA, CZR, DASH, DELL, DVAX, EB, ECOL, ENV, EOG, ETSY, EVH, FND, FOXF, FSLR, FSR, GKOS, GNMK, GSBD, HCAT, HPQ, ICFI, IOVA, KAMN, KTOS, LHCG, LPSN, LYV, MDRX, MNKD, MTZ, NDLS, NKLA, NPTN, NUVA, ONEM, OUT, PETQ, PK, PRAH, PNSL, REGI, RKT, RMAX, ROOT, RUN, SAIL, SFM, SHAK, SPCE, STAY, SWN, TA, TPIC, UHS, VLDR, VMW, WDAY, WW, ZGNX, ZIXI, ZS

 

Other Key Events:

·     Credit Suisse Financial Services Forum (virtual), 2/24-2/26

·     KBW Inc. Payments FinTech Conference (virtual), 2/23-2/25

·     Oppenheimer Cloud Infrastructure & Software (virtual) 2/24-2/25

·     SVB Leerink Global Healthcare Conference (virtual), 2/22-2/26

·     Wells Fargo Real Estate Securities Conference (virtual), 2/24-2/25

·     Wolfe Research Global Auto, Auto Tech and Mobility Conference (virtual), 2/24-2/25

 

 

Macro	Up/Down	Last
Nymex	0.13	63.35
Brent	0.17	67.21
Gold	-14.25	1,790.75
EUR/USD	0.007	1.2236
JPY/USD	0.19	106.06
10-Year Note	+0.064	1.441%

 

 

Sector News Breakdown

Consumer

·     Booking Holdings (BKNG) Q4 EPS loss (57c) v., est. loss ($4.28); Q4 revs $1.2B vs. est. $1.18B; Q4 gross travel bookings were $7.3 billion, a 65% decrease from the prior year; Q4 room nights booked in the 4th quarter decreased 60% from prior year

·     Churchill Downs (CHDN) Q4 EPS 43c vs. est. 27c; Q4 revs $278.2M vs. est. $267.2M; adj Ebitda for Q4 $79.2M; TwinSpires Horse Racing business delivered record net revenue of $405.0 million, up 39% over the prior year and record Adjusted EBITDA of $126.8 million, up 62% over the prior year; delivered same store wholly-owned casino margins of 37% in the second half of 2020, up 690 basis points from 2019

·     L Brands (LB) 4Q adj EPS $3.03 ex items vs. est. $2.91 on revs $4.818B vs. est. $4.83B, comps +10% (BBW comps +22%, VS comps -3%); guides 1Q EPS $0.35-0.45 vs. est. $0.12; not providing guidance for FY21

·     Marriott Vacations (VAC) Q4 EPS loss (5c) vs. est. loss (2c); Q4 revenue $747M vs. est. $717.87M; Resort occupancies increased sequentially to 68% in the fourth quarter from 57% in the third quarter, reflecting leisure customers’ desire to travel; more than 90% of the resorts in the Company’s Interval International business had reopened by the end of 2020

·     Rent-A-Center (RCII) 4Q adj EPS $1.03 vs. est. $1.02 on revs $716Mm vs. est. $713.6Mm; guides FY21 adj EPS $5.00-5.55 vs. est. $3.92 and FY revs 4.305-4.455B vs. est. 3.16B reflecting approx 30% anticipated accretion from Acima acquisition

·     Revolve Group (RVLV) Q4 EPS 26c vs. est. 11c; Q4 revenue $140.8M vs. est. $135.28M; Gross margin was 56.0%, a YoY increase of 305 basis points and the highest-ever gross margin reported for a fourth quarter; International net sales increased 24% YoY in Q4 2020, outperforming the domestic net sales decline of 10% YoY

·     SpartanNash (SPTN) Q4 adj EPS 43c vs. est. 45c; Q4 revenue $2.25B vs. est. $2.21B; retail comparable store sales were 8.7% for Q4 and 13.1% for the fiscal year; sees 2021 adjusted EPS $1.65-$1.80 vs. est. $2.08; sees 2021 sales $8.8B-$9.0B vs. est. $8.88B

·     Tesla (TSLA) has told workers it will temporarily halt some production at its car assembly plant in California, Bloomberg News reported citing a person familiar with the matter. Workers on a Model 3 production line in Fremont were told their line would be down from Feb. 22 until March 7

 

Energy

·     PDC Energy (PDCE) announces 2020 results, 2021 guidance and multi-year outlook focused on return of capital initiatives including board-approved dividend program expected to commence mid-2021

·     Sunnova Energy (NOVA) Q4 EPS loss (96c) vs. est. loss (31c); Q4 revenue $38.0M vs. est. $42.8M; raises FY21 adj. EBITDA view to $80M-$85M from $77M-$83M and ups FY21 customer additions view from 42K-48K to 55K-58K

·     Whiting Petroleum (WLL) 4Q adj EPS $1.46 on revs $212Mm vs. est. $191.5Mm; sees 2021 production 82-88 MBOE/day, sees 2021 oil production 48-52 MBOE/day, sees 2021 CAPEX $228-252Mm

·     Texas state legislators on Thursday begin digging into the causes of deadly power blackouts that left millions shivering in the dark as frigid temperatures caught its grid operator and utilities ill-prepared for skyrocketing power demand

 

Financials

·     ACI Worldwide Inc (ACIW) said it has signed an agreement with hedge fund Starboard Value LP to add two new independent directors to the payments software provider’s board. Starboard, which owns a 7.7% stake in ACI, had urged the company to hire advisers and consider a sale in December; separately, ACIW Q4 EPS 56c vs. est. 54c and Q4 revenue $387.04M vs. est. $375.97M

·     Fidelity National Financial (FNF) Q4 adj EPS $2.01 vs. est. $1.32; Q4 revenue approx $3.8B vs. est. $2.86B; raises quarterly dividend by 9% to 36c

·     Redfin (RDFN) 4Q EPS $0.11 vs. est. $0.04 on revs $244.5Mm vs. est. $233.5Mm; guides 1Q net loss $39-36Mm, sees 1Q revs $$249-255Mm vs. est. $231.8Mm

 

Healthcare

·     Pfizer’s (PFE) covid-19 vaccine was 92% effective against severe covid-19 after 2 doses – according to NEJM study, as per Reuters; covid-19 vaccine was 94% effective in preventing symptomatic cases after 2 doses in Israel’s nationwide mass vaccination, study published in NEJM

·     Moderna (MRNA) said they’ve shipped 60m doses globally & ~55m doses to the US; looking at approaches for boosters including variant specific boosters; looking at a strategy that includes a 3rd dose of Modena’s C-19 candidate; if they needed to dedicate their entire 2022 capacity, they could supply up to 2.8b dose in the fiscal year 2022

·     Amedisys (AMED) Q4 adj EPS $1.49 vs. est. $1.47; Q4 revenue $550.71M vs. est. $553.37M; Q4 adjusted EBITDA of $78.1M compared to $52.2M in 2019; sees FY21 adjusted EPS $6.25-$6.47 vs. est. $6.31; sees FY21 revenue $2.28B-$2.32B vs. est. $2.31B

·     CareDX (CDNA) Q4 EPS 8c vs. est. 2c; Q4 revenue $58.6M vs. est. $55.51M; sees FY21 revenue $255M-$265M vs. est. $249.81M; Provided over 25,000 patient results in the fourth quarter and approximately 79,000 patient results in 2020

·     Cross Country Healthcare (CCRN) Q4 adj EPS 19c vs. est. 9c; Q4 revenue $215.6M vs. est. $196.42M; sees Q1 adj EPS 32c-37c vs. est. 7c; sees Q1 revenue $280M-$295M vs. est. $201.62M

·     Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT) Q4 EPS loss ($1.00) vs. est. loss (94c); Q4 revenue $41.3M vs. est. $39.03M

·     Guardian Health (GH) Q4 EPS loss (94c) vs. est. loss (57c); Q4 revenue $78.3M vs. est. $76.73M; expects full year 2021 revenue to be in the range of $360 million to $370 million, representing 26% to 29% growth over full year 2020. Clinical volumes for 2021 are expected to be greater than 90,000 tests, growing at least 42% over 2020.

·     Tandem Diabetes (TNDM) 4Q EPS $0.22 vs. est. $0.12 on revs $168.1Mm vs. est. $141.6Mm, global pump shipments +67% to $32,685; guides FY21 sales $600-615Mm vs. est. $563Mm

·     Teladoc (TDOC) Q4 EPS loss ($3.07) vs. est. loss (24c); Q4 revenue $383.32M vs. est. $378.93M; sees Q1 revenue $445M-$455M vs. est. $446.01M and sees Q1 adjusted EBITDA $45M-$48M; sees FY21 revenue $1.95B-$2B vs. est. $1.95B and sees FY21 adjusted EBITDA $255M-$275M

·     Adamas Pharmaceuticals (ADMS) 12.5M share Spot Secondary priced at $4.40

·     Avita Medical (RCEL) 2.795M share Spot Secondary priced at $21.50

 

Industrials & Materials

·     Greif Inc. (GEF) Q1 EPS $0.61 ex items vs. est. $1.00 on net sales $1.147B vs. est. $1.22B; guides 2Q EPS before adjustments $0.96-1.06

·     Maxar Technologies (MAXR) Q4 EPS loss (76c) vs. est. loss (16c); Q4 revenue $467M vs. est. $450M; total order backlog of $1.9 bln as of December 31, 2020 compared to $1.6 bln as of December 31, 2019

·     Mosaic (MOS) shares outperformed yesterday in ag chemical sector; yesterday, Mosaic released January sales data, with Phosphates showing average pricing for the month ~$30/t higher than the 4Q average – as expected. Potash prices also are higher MoM, while volumes look weaker – Mosaic had previously called out an additional ~400kt of product that was sold in 4Q through Canpotex at lower prices

·     Kraton (KRA) Q4 adj EPS 23c vs. est. 14c; Q4 revenue $406.76M vs. est. $357.96M

·     Tutor Perini (TPC) 4Q EPS $0.69 vs. est. $0.61 on revs $1.3B vs. est. $1.33B; sees FY21 EPS $1.80-2.20 vs. est. $2.22, anticipates continued rev growth from backlog of large civil infrastructure projects on west coast and other projects in Guam

·     Tronox (TROX) 19.11M share secondary priced at $18.25

 

Media & Telecom

·     Verizon (VZ) pledged $45.5B to secure airwaves for faster wireless service in the FCC’s $81B auction, the WSJ reported while AT&T (T) bid $23.4B, and T-Mobile US (TMUS) bid $9.3B https://on.wsj.com/37LlDOu

·     Clear Channel Outdoor (CCO) Q4 revenue $541.39M vs. est. $495.93M; Q4 adjusted EBITDA $101.31M vs. $207.09M last year

·     ViacomCBS (VIAC) 4Q adj EPS $1.04 vs. est. $1.02 on revs $6.874B vs. est. $6.885B, domestic streaming subs 19.2Mm +71% yr/yr, qtrly global streaming subs +56% to nearly 30Mm; qtrly global streaming and digital video revs +71% to $888Mm; said it expects to reach as many as 75 million global streaming subscribers by the end of 2024, with global streaming revenue to rise to more than $7 billion by that time.

 

Technology, Media & Telecom

·     ANSYS Inc. (ANSS) 4Q adj EPS $2.96 vs. est. $2.54 on revs $627.8Mm vs. est. $566.8Mm; guides 1Q adj revs $335-360Mm vs. est. $354.9Mm, sees 1Q adj EPS $0.73-0.90 vs. est. $1.08; guides FY adj revs 1.79-1.875B vs. est. $1.838B, sees FY adj EPS $6.44-6.92 vs. est. $7.08

·     Elastic NV (ESTC) Q3 EPS loss (4c) vs. est. loss (15c); Q3 revenue $157.1M vs. est. $146.72M; Q3: SaaS revenue $44.9less than, an increase of 79% YoY, or 76% on a constant currency basis; Q3 calculated billings was $173.2M, an increase of 41% YoY, or 37% on a constant currency basis; sees FY21 EPS (19c)-(16c) vs. est. loss (33c) and revs $589M-$590M vs. est. $572.32M

·     Magnite Inc. (MGNI) Q4 adj EPS 19c vs. est. 14c; Q4 revenue $82M vs. est. $75.16M; sees Q1 revenue $58M-$62M; CTV revenue for Q4 2020 was $15.3 million, up 53% on a pro forma basis; Online Video (“OLV”) revenue grew 35% year over year in Q4 2020 on a pro forma basis

·     NetApp Inc. (NTAP) 3Q EPS $0.80 vs. est. $1.01 on revs $1.47B vs. est. $1.43B; guides 4Q net revs $1.44-1.54B vs. est. $1.47B, sees 4Q adj EPS $1.06-1.14 vs. est. $1.09

·     Nutanix (NTNX) Q2 adj EPs loss (37c) vs. est. loss (48c); Q2 revenue $346.4M vs. est. $326.95M; delivered record ACV billings with growth of 14 percent year-over-year, bolstered by the strength of our emerging products; continues momentum with run-rate acv up 28% yoy, bolstered by over 100% yoy growth in emerging product new AC

·     NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) 4Q adj EPS $3.10 vs. est. $2.81 on revs $5.0B vs. est. $4.82B, qtrly adj gr mgn 65.5% (reported gr mgn 63.1%); guides 1Q revs $5.3B +/- 2% vs. est. $4.5B, sees adj gr mgn 66% (GAAP gr mgn 63.8%) +/-50bps, sees 1Q GAAP and adj other income and expense both approx $50Mm

·     Ping Identity (PING) 4Q adj EPS $0.09 vs. est. $0.09 on revs $63.3Mm vs. est. $68.8Mm; guides 1Q revs $61.5-63.5Mm vs. est. $67.4Mm, sees 1Q total ARR $263-264Mm; guides FY21 total revs $255-265Mm vs. est. $291.4Mm, sees FY total ARR $295.5-298.5Mm

·     Pure Storage (PSTG) Q4 non-GAAP EPS 13c vs. est. 9c; Q4 revenue $502.7M vs. est. $480.67M; sees Q1 revenue $405M vs. est. $390.81M; sees Q1 non-GAAP operating income ($20M); sees FY22 revenue growth 14%-15%

·     TrueCar (TRUE) Q4 non-GAAP EPS loss (1c) vs. est. loss (4c); Q4 revenue $64.0M vs. est. $58.49M; sees Q1 revenue $60M-$62M vs. est. $59.07M; Average monthly unique visitors(4) increased 2% to 7.9 million in Q4, up from approximately 7.7 million YoY; Units(5) were 166,474 in the fourth quarter of 2020, down from 248,037 in the fourth quarter of 2019