Morning Preview: February 26, 2025

Early Look

Wednesday, February 26, 2025

Futures

Up/Down

%

Last

Dow

146.00

0.31%

43,836

S&P 500

31.25

0.52%

6,000

Nasdaq

167.50

0.79%

21,316

 

 

U.S. futures are higher, with the S&P (Spuz) reclaiming the 6,000 level as the Nasdaq outperforms ahead of key earnings results tonight from Nvidia (NVDA). The dollar index (DXY) is edging higher along with Treasury yields which look to halt a 5-day slide after House Republicans passed a budget blueprint Tuesday and Bitcoin prices steady around $89,000 after falling yesterday. Industrial metals seeing a bounce, led by copper stocks after President Trump signs executive order to direct Commerce Dept to examine possible copper tariffs. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index fell -95 points to 38,142, the Shanghai Index gained 34 points to 3,380, and the Hang Seng Index surged 753 points to 23,787. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 rises 0.8% to a record high, boosted by solid corporate earnings and optimism around a potential peace deal in Ukraine. The German DAX is jumped 316 points to 22,726, while the FTSE 100 rises 50 points to 8,719.

 

The Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 both closed lower on Tuesday for the 4th straight trading day, their longest string of loses since the last three sessions of 2024 and the first session of 2025. The S&P hit its lowest level since Jan. 15, while the Nasdaq touched its lowest level since Jan 13 fueled by a weaker-than-expected consumer confidence print that stirred fears of an economic downturn, adding to the jitters from last week on weaker Michigan confidence data/rising inflation expectations and softer guidance from retail giant Wal-Mart. The biggest drags on the market on Tuesday were mega cap stocks as NVDA shares fell -2.8% and TSLA -8% on European sales data and MSFT -1.5%. Software stocks in general were weak as the IGV Software ETF fell a 5th straight day, worst stretch since November 2022″

 

Market Closing Prices Yesterday

  • The S&P 500 Index dipped -28.00 points, or 0.47%, to 5,955.25.
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 159.95 points, or 0.37%, to 43,621.16.
  • The Nasdaq Composite slumped by -260.54 points, or 1.35%, to 19,026.39.
  • The Russell 2000 Index declined -8.18 points, or 0.38% to 2,170.08.

Economic Calendar for Today

  • 7:00 AM ET MBA Mortgage Applications Data
  • 10:00 AM ET                New Home Sales M/M for January…est. 680K
  • 10:30 AM ET                Weekly DOE Inventory Data
  • 12:00 PM ET                Fed’s Bostic Speaks on Economic Outlook, Housing, Fed’s Barkin Repeats Speech on Inflation
  • 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell $44B in 7-year notes

Earnings Calendar:

  • Earnings Before the Open: AAP ACMR APG ASTE AVDX AVNS BCO BLMN BSY BXSL CBZ CLDT COCO COMM CTRI DTM DY EHTH EME EYE FSS GERN IEP IMXI LINE LNTH LOW MDGL MGPI NRG ODP OPCH PLAB PRKS RYTM SHOO SWJ TJX UTHR VRSK YOU ZVIA
  • Earnings After the Close: A AAOI ACAD ADTN AI ALEC AMBA AMBC APA ARIS ARKO ATEC BBSI BYND CAPL CDNA CERT CHE CORT CPK CPRX CRGY CRH CRM CSV DMRC DORM EBAY EE EPR ERII EXE FE FTAI FWRD GEF GRBK HBB HCAT HEI HHH HNST INVH IONQ JOBY KNTK KTOS KURA KW LAB LXU LZ MARA MDXG MGNI MIRM MORN MQ MRAM NSA NTNX NVDA ORA OVV PARA PEB PLYM PSTG RLAY ROOT RRGB RSI SBGI SDGR SEMR SG SKYT SNOW SNPS SPCE SRPT STR SUI TALO TASK TDOC TKO TNDM TWI UHS URBN VAC VIR WES WHD WTRG XPER

Other Key Events:

  • Bernstein Technology, Media & Telecom forum, 2/26-2/27, in Menlo Park, CA
  • Cantor Healthcare San Diego Bus Tour 2/25-2/27, in San Diego, CA
  • Goldman Sachs European Technology Conference, 2/25-2/26, in London
  • JP Morgan 2025 Global High Yields and Leveraged Finance Conference, 2/24-2/26 (2025), in Miami, FL
  • Las Vegas Builder’s Show Field Trip, 2/25-2/26, in Las Vegas, NV
  • Oppenheimer 10th Annual Emerging Growth Conference, 2/25-2/26

 

 

Macro

Up/Down

Last

Nymex

0.04

68.95

Brent

-0.05

72.97

Gold

9.90

2,928.70

EUR/USD

-0.0022

1.0491

JPY/USD

0.54

149.56

10-Year Note

+0.019

4.317%

 

World News

  • President Trump overnight signs executive order to direct Commerce Dept to examine possible copper tariffs, to rebuild U.S. Production of a metal critical to electric vehicles, military hardware and semiconductors (shares of FCX, SCCO were active overnight on headlines)

Sector News Breakdown

Consumer

  • Advance Auto Parts (AAP) Q4 adjusted EPS loss (-$1.18) vs. est. loss (-$1.23); Q4 revs $2B vs. est. $1.93B; reports Q4 comp sales fell (-1.0%) vs. est. loss (-1.7%); guides FY25 adjusted EPS $1.50-$2.50 vs. est. $1.56 and sees FY25 revenue $8.4B-$8.6B vs. est. $8.51B; sees FY25 comp store sales growth 0.5%-1.5%.
  • Beyond Inc (BYON) files $156M mixed shelf.
  • Boston Beer (SAM) Q4 adj EPS ($1.68) vs est. ($1.31) on revs $402.3Mm vs est. $389.2Mm, gr mgn 39.9%; guides FY gr mgn 45-47% and EPS $8.00-10.50 vs est. $11.54.
  • Caesars Entertainment (CZR) Q4 EPS $0.05 vs est. loss (-$0.13), adj EBITDA $882Mm vs est. $902.77Mm on revs $2.80B, in-line with est. $2.815B.
  • Camping Worldwide (CWH) Q4 adj EPS loss (-$0.47) vs. est. loss (-$0.47); Q4 revs $1.2B vs. est. $1.13B; Q4 gross margins 18.7%
  • Cava Group (CAVA) Q4 EPS $0.05 vs. est. $0.06 and revs $225.1M vs. est. $223.3M; Q4 net New CAVA Restaurant Openings of 15, bringing total CAVA Restaurants to 367, an 18.8% increase in total CAVA Restaurants year over year; guides FY25 adjusted EBITDA $150M-$157M vs. $126.2M in FY24 and sees FY25 comp store Restaurant Sales growth 6.0% to 8.0%.
  • GM Corp. (GM) board approves new $6B share buyback.
  • Jack in the Box (JACK) Q1 EPS $1.92 above consensus $1.69; Q1 revs $469.4M vs. est. $470.5M; Q1 Jack in the Box same-store sales growth of 0.4%, Del Taco same-store sales of (4.5%); Q1 comps comprised of franchise same-store sales increase of 0.5% and company-owned same-store sales decline of 0.4%.
  • Instacart (CART) Q4 EPS $0.53 vs est. $0.38 on revs $883Mm vs est. $891Mm, GTV $8.65B; guides Q1 GTV $9.0-9.15B vs est. $8.95B and adj EBITDA $220-230Mm vs est. $238Mm.
  • Lands’ End, Inc. (LE) confirmed that it has received a letter from Edward S. Lampert requesting that the Company initiate a strategic sale process to maximize shareholder value.
  • Light & Wonder Inc. (LNW) Q4 adj EPS $1.42 above consensus $0.95; Q4 revs $797M vs. est. $797.61M; said delivered record full year consolidated revenue with double-digit growth of 10% y/y; added 850+ North American Gaming Operations units sequentially and 2,700+ unit expansion y/y; announced strategic acquisition of Grover Gaming’s Charitable Gaming Business.
  • Lowe’s (LOW) Q4 adj EPS $1.93 vs. est. $1.84; Q4 revenue $18.55B vs. est. $18.29B; Q4 comp sales rose +0.2%; sees FY25 EPS $12.15-$12.40 vs. est. $11.92 and sees FY25 revenue $83.5B-$84.5B vs. est. $83.4B; sees FY25 comparable sales flat to up 1%; sees FY25 operating margin 12.3%-12.4%.
  • Lucid Group (LCID) Q4 adj EPS loss (-$0.22) vs est. loss (-$0.28); Q4 revs $234.5M vs. est. $211.77M; for Q4, produced 3,386 vehicles and 9,029 vehicles in 2024, in line with the 2024 annual production guidance of 9,000 vehicles; said delivered 3,099 vehicles in Q4 and 10,241 vehicles in 2024; COO Marc Winterhoff appointed interim CEO, 2025 production guidance of approximately 20,000 vehicles.
  • Oddity (ODD) Q4 EPS $0.20 vs. est. $0.13; Q4 revs $124M vs. est. $119.63M; sees Q1 EPS $0.61-$0.63 vs. est. $0.55 and revs $258M-$262M vs. est. $253.59M; guides year revs $776M-$785M vs. est. $772.5M.

Energy, Industrials and materials

  • Axon Enterprise (AXON) shares soar as Q4 adj EPS $2.08 vs est. $1.40 on revs $575Mm vs est. $566.09Mm; guides FY revs $2.55-2.65B vs est. $2.554B and adj EBITDA $640-670Mm vs est. $649.15Mm.
  • BP plc (BP) said it would boost oil-and-gas production and sharply cut investments in clean energy, pivoting back to fossil fuels in a bid to revive its flagging share price; BP announced the moves as part of a much-anticipated strategy update. BP said it would increase oil-and-gas investment to about $10 billion a year, with the aim of boosting daily output to up to 2.5 million barrels by 2030, from about 2.3 million last year.
  • First Solar (FSLR) Q4 adj EPS $3.65 vs. est. $4.70; Q4 revs $1.514B vs. est. $1.466B; announced the filing of a lawsuit against Shanghai-headquartered JinkoSolar (JKS) and its related entities alleging infringement of First Solar’s US Patent No. 9,130,074
  • Matson Inc. (MATX) Q4 EPS $3.80 vs. est. $3.34 and vs $1.78 last year; Q4 revenue $890.3M vs. est. $851.78M and vs. $788.9M last year; said saw seasonally stronger freight demand with significantly higher year-over-year freight rates for our industry-leading CLX and MAX services.
  • Permian Resources (PR) Q4 EPS $0.29 vs est. $0.35 on revs $1.3B vs est. $1.3B, adj FCF $400Mm; sees 2025 CAPEX $1.9-2.1B, avg production 360-380 MBOE/D; increased qtrly base dividend from $0.05/shr to $0.15/shr.
  • Range Resources (RRC) Q4 adj EPS $0.68 vs. est. $0.60 and revs $626M vs. est. $682.9M; sees raising dividend to $0.09 from $0.08; Guides capital expenditure $650M to $690M vs. est. $651.2M.
  • Sterling Infrastructure (STRL) Q4 EPS $3.64 vs est. $1.33, adj EBITDA $76.4Mm vs est. $72.54Mm on revs $498.833Mm vs est. $531.25Mm; guides FY revs $2.0-2.15B vs est. $2.123B, adj EBITDA $395-420Mm vs est. $342.53Mm and adj EPS $7.90-8.40 vs est. $6.49.

Financials

  • ExlService Holdings (EXLS) Q4 adj ESP 40.44 vs est. $0.41 on revs $481.4Mm vs est. $475.7Mm, adj gr mgn 18.8%; guides FY revs $2.025-2.06B vs est. $2.059B and adj EPS $1.83-1.89 vs est. $1.89.
  • Flywire Corp. (FLYW) shares tumble as Q4 EPS ($0.12) vs est. ($0.01), adj EBITDA $16.7M vs est. $16.5M on revs $117.6M vs est. $118.9M, adj gr mgn 67%; guides Q1 FX-neutral revs +10-13% vs est. +18.09% and adj EBITDA mgn +300-600bps yr/yr; sees FY FX-neutral revs +9-13% vs est. +21.69% and adj EBITDA mgn +200-400bps yr/yr.
  • Intuit Corp. (INTU) Q2 adj EPS $3.32 vs est. $2.58 on revs $3.963B vs est. $3.829B; guides Q3 revs $7.55-7.6B vs est. $7.514B and adj EPS $10.89-10.95 vs est. $11.48; sees FY revs $18.16-18.347B vs est. $18.282B, adj op Inc $7.241-7.316B vs est. $7.284B and adj EPS $19.16-19.36 vs est. $19.29.
  • Lemonade Inc. (LMND) Q4 EPS loss (-$0.42) vs. est. loss (-$0.60); Q4 revs rose 29% y/y to $148.8M vs. est. $144.9M; guides Q1 revs $143M-4145M vs. est. $151.4M and 2025 revs $655M-$657M.
  • Olo Inc. (OLO) Q4 adj EPS $0.06 vs est. $0.07, adj op Inc $11.5Mm vs es t$8.83Mm on revs $76.1Mm vs est. $72.75Mm; guides Q1revs $77.2-77.7Mm vs est. $76.68Mm and adj op Inc $8.7-9.0Mm vs est. $8.644Mm; sees FY revs $333-336Mm vs est. $328.25Mm and adj op Inc $45.5-47.0Mm vs est. $39.36Mm.
  • Sezzle Inc. (SEZL) Q4 adj EPS $4.39 vs est. $3.12 on revs $98.2Mm vs est. $76.32Mm, GMV $855.4Mm; guides FY revs +25-30% vs est. +33.19% and EPS $13.25 vs est. $12.61.
  • Workiva Inc. (WK) Q4 adj EPS $0.33 vs est. $0.33, adj EBIT $15Mm vs est. $14.3Mm on revs $199.9Mm vs est. $195.3Mm; guides Q1 revs $203-205Mm vs est. $203.34Mm, adj op mgn approx breakeven, adj EPS approx $0.07 vs est. $0.25; sees FY revs $864-868Mm vs est. $852.37Mm, adj op mgn approx 5.0-5.5% and adj EPS $1.02-1.09 vs est. $1.29.

Healthcare

  • Agilon Health (AGL) Q4 EPS loss (-$0.26) vs. est. loss (-$0.13); Q4 revs $1.52B, in-line with consensus $1.52B; sees FY25 revenue $5.825B-$6.025B, below consensus $6.61B and sees FY25 adjusted EBITDA ($95M)-($55M).
  • AstraZeneca (AZN) said that its experimental breast cancer treatment, Camizestrant, improved patient survival without the disease getting worse in a study, a positive outcome in the development of the therapy key to the company’s pipeline.
  • Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ) Q4 adj EPS $6.60 vs est. $5.81 on revs $1.09B vs est. $1.06B; guides FY revs $4.15-4.4B vs est. $4.325B, adj gr mgn 92% and adj EPS $22.50-24.00 vs est. $21.95.
  • Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (MDGL) reported positive two-year results from the open-label compensated MASH cirrhosis (F4c) arm of the Phase 3 MAESTRO-NAFLD-1 trial of Rezdiffra (resmetirom). Patients treated with Rezdiffra achieved marked reductions in liver stiffness, a surrogate for fibrosis, measured by vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE).
  • Masimo Corp. (MASI) Q4 adj EPS $1.80, vs. est. $1.42; Q4 revs $600.7M vs. est. $593.35M; sees FY25 adjusted EPS $5.10-$5.40 (above prior $4.90-$5.10), vs. consensus $4.69 and revenue $1.5B-$1.53B (vs. prior $1.5B), with non-GAAP operating profit $413M-$428M (vs. prior $398M-$406M).
  • Merit Medical Systems (MMSI) Q4 EPS $0.93 vs. est. $0.83; Q4 revs rose 9.4% y/y to $355.16M vs. est. $351.54M; sees FY25 EPS $3.58-$3.70, vs. consensus $3.74 and guides FY25 revenue $1.47B-$1.49B vs. est. $1.48B; Q4 Non-GAAP operating margin of 19.6%, compared to 16.6% in prior year period.
  • PROCEPT BioRobotics (PRCT) Q4 EPS ($0.35) vs est. ($0.33), adj EBITDA ($10.335)Mm vs est. ($8.44)Mm on sales $68.2Mm vs est. $66.78Mm; guides FY revs $320Mm vs est. $313.73Mm, gr mgn 64.5% and adj EBITDA ($35)Mm vs est. ($33)Mm.

Technology, Media & Telecom

  • Meta Platforms (META) is in discussions to construct a new data center campus for its artificial intelligence projects, with potential costs exceeding $200 billion, The Information reported on Tuesday, citing people familiar with the matter. Meta executives have informed data center developers that the company is considering building the campus in states including Louisiana, Wyoming or Texas.
  • Couchbase (BASE) Q4 EPS loss (-$0.30) vs. est. loss (-$0.08); Q4 revs $54.9M vs. est. $53.25M; sees Q1 revenue $55.1M-$61.9M vs. est. $56.6M and Q1 total ARR $242.9M-$245.9M.
  • Coupang (CPNG) Q4 adj Ebitda $421M vs. est. $360.6M; Q4 revs $8.0B vs. est. $8.07B; Q4 Gross profit margin 31.3% vs. 25.6% y/y, and operating profit $312M vs. $130M y/y; Q4 active customers 22.8M, +8.6% y/y.
  • Keysight Technologies (KEYS) Q1 adj EPS $1.82 vs est. $1.69 on revs $1.298B vs est. $1.276B, orders $1.263B, FCF $346Mm; guides Q2 revs $1.27-1.29B vs est. $1.274B and adj EPS $1.61-1.67 vs est. $1.59.
  • Super Micro (SMCI) shares jumped overnight after filing its 10K before its deadline last night.
  • Workday Inc. (WDAY) Q4 adj EPS $1.92, vs. est. $1.78; Q4 revs $2.21B vs. est. $2.18B; sees Q1 subscription revenue $2.5B, representing growth of 13% and sees FY26 subscription revenue $8.8B, representing growth of 14% with FY26 adjusted operating margin 28%.
  • ZoomInfo (ZI) Q4 adj EPS $0.26 vs est. $0.22, adj op Inc $115.9Mm vs est. $104.5Mm on revs $309.1Mm vs est. $297.6Mm; guides Q1 revs $294-297Mm vs est. $292.41Mm, adj op Inc $96-99Mm vs est. $102.96Mm and adj EPS $0.22-0.23 vs est. $0.22; sees FY revs $1.185-1.205B vs est. $1.181B, adj op Inc $426-436Mm vs est. $424.83Mm and adj EPS $0.95-0.97 vs est. $0.89.

_________________________________________________________________

Market commentary provided by Hammerstone Markets, Inc, a firm separate from and not affiliated with Regal Securities. Regal Securities has not participated in the creation of the content, and does not explicitly or implicitly endorse the content.