Early Look

Thursday, February 27, 2025

U.S. stock futures are looking higher overnight, getting a boost from shares of NVDA which reported a beat and raise quarter that so far appears to be enough to help the recent bleeding in stock markets. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq snapped their respective four day losing streaks on Wednesday (barely), heading into key GDP economic data at 8:30 am et this morning and then the January PCE inflation data tomorrow morning. Overnight, U.S. President Donald Trump raised hopes for another month-long pause on steep new tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, saying they could take effect on April 2, and floated a 25% “reciprocal” tariff on European cars and other goods. Trump has targeted early April for imposing reciprocal tariffs matching import duty rates of other countries and offsetting their other restrictions. His trade advisers consider European countries’ value added taxes to be akin to a tariff. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index gained 113 points to 38,256, the Shanghai Index rose 7 points to 3,388, and the Hang Seng Index declined -69 points to 23,718. In Europe, the German DAX is down -147 points to 22,646, while the FTSE 100 is up 31 points to 8,762. Last night was filled with earnings results, as some of the biggest upside movers on results include AMBA, CORZ, CPRX, LZ, MARA, NTNX, SNOW, SNPS and URBN with some of the biggest decliners overnight on results included AAOI, CRM, EBAY, PSTG, SG, TDOC, and TNDM. Extreme bearish sentiment this week as the bull-bear spread in the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) weekly survey was -41.2 vs -11.3 last week. Bulls fall to 19.4% from 29.2%, Neutrals fall to 20% from 30.3% and Bears rise to 60.6% from 40.5% (usually a contra indicator).

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -188.04 points, or 0.43%, to 43,433.12.
• The Nasdaq Composite climbed 48.88 points, or 0.26%, to 19,075.26.
• The Russell 2000 Index gained 4.09 points, or 0.19% to 2,174.17.

• 8:30 AM ET                  Continuing Claims…est. 1.872M
• 8:30 AM ET                  Durable Goods for January…est. +2.0%
• 8:30 AM ET                  Durable Goods Ex: Transportation for January…est. +0.3%
• 8:30 AM ET                  Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q4, 2^nd estimate…est. +2.3% (same as prior)
• 8:30 AM ET GDP Price Deflator for Q4-2^nd estimate…est. +2.2%
• 8:30 AM ET GDP Personal Consumption for Q4-2nd estimate…prior 4.2%
• 8:30 AM ET PCE Prices M/M for Q4-2nd estimate
• 8:30 AM ET                  Core PCE Prices M/M for Q4-2nd estimate…est. +2.5%
• 10:00 AM ET                Pending Home Sales M/M for January…est. (-1.3%)
• 10:30 AM ET                Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
• 11:00 AM ET KC Fed Manufacturing for February…prior (-9.0)
• 1:15 PM ET                   Fed’s Hammack Gives Keynote Speech at Conference
• 3:15 PM ET                   Fed’s Harker Gives Speech on Economic Outlook

• Earnings After the Close: ACEL ACHC ACHR ADSK AES AIRG ALEX ALTM AMRC ARLO ARRY ATGN AVPT BE BLND CABO CDXS CLOV CODI CRNX CSTL CUBE CYTK DCGO DH DELL DUOL DV EB EIX EOG ESTC FIGS FOXF GDOT HCI HPQ ICUI INTZ IOVA JAMF LASR LMAT MAIN MBI MOS MTZ NNI NRDY NTAP NTRA OPEN PGNY PGRE PTCT PUBM QRTEA RDFN RKLB RKT RUN SEER SOUN SSP TLN TMCI TMDX TPC TTEC VRRM

• Cantor Healthcare San Diego Bus Tour 2/25-2/27, in San Diego, CA

• Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) Q4 adj EPS $0.26 vs. est. $0.11; Q4 revs $2.11B, in-line with consensus $2.1B; Q1 Net Yield is expected to increase approximately 0.5% on a Constant Currency basis y/y.
• Sweetgreen (SG) Q4 EPS ($0.25) vs est. ($0.20), adj EBITDA $18.7Mm vs est. $18.8Mm on revs $676.8Mm vs est. $677.7Mm; guides Q1 revs $163-166Mm vs est. $178.48Mm and adj EBITDA ($3)Mm to ($1)Mm vs est. $2.175Mm; sees FY revs $760-780Mm vs est. $788.74Mm and adj EBITDA $32-38Mm vs est. $36.87Mm.
• Urban Outfitters (URBN) Q4 adj EPS $1.04 vs. est. $0.94; Q4 sales rose 10% to $1.64B vs. est. $1.61B; Total Retail segment net sales increased 6.3%, with comparable Retail segment net sales increasing 5.1%. The increase in Retail segment comparable net sales was driven by high single-digit positive growth in digital channel sales and low single-digit positive growth in retail store sales.

• Forward Air (FWRD) Q4 EPS loss (-$1.24) vs est. loss (0.13); Q4 revs $632.85M vs. est. $667.4M
• Grief Inc. (GEF) Q1 adj EPS $0.39 vs est. $0.73, adj EBITDA $145.1Mm vs est. $167.41Mm on revs $1.266B vs est. $1.263B; guides FY low end adj EBITDA $710Mm vs est. $732.06Mm and adj FCF $245Mm.
• Heico Corp. (HEI) Q1 EPS $1.20 vs. est. $0.95; Q1 revs $1.03B vs. est. $983.53M; Q1 operating margin 22%.
• Joby Aviation (JOBY) Q4 EPS loss (-$0.34) vs. loss (-$0.17) last year; announces record certification progress and delivery of second aircraft to US Air Force at Edwards Air Force Base
• Kratos Defense (KTOS) Q4 adj EPS $0.13 vs est. $0.10, adj EBITDA $25.2Mm vs est. $24.5Mm on revs $283.1Mm vs est. $286.92Mm; guides Q1 revs $285-295Mm vs est. $299.6Mm and adj EBITDA $20-24Mm vs est. $26.9Mm; sees FY revs $1.26-1.285B vs est. $1.281B and adj EBITDA $112-118Mm vs est. $125.13Mm.

• Legal Zoom (LZ) Q4 EPS $0.19 vs. est. $0.16; Q4 revs $161.7M vs. est. $160.67M; sees Q1 revenue $175M-$179M above consensus $173.69M and sees Q1 adjusted EBITDA $33M-$36M; sees FY25 revenue up 5% and sees FY25 adjusted EBITDA margin 23%.
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• CareDx Inc. (CDNA) Q4 adj EPS $0.18 vs. est. $0.15; Q4 revs $86.6M vs. est. $84.56M; sees FY25 revenue $365M-$375M, vs. est. $370.02M and sees full year 2025 adjusted EBITDA gain to be in the range of $29M-$33M; Q4 Testing services revenue of $63.8 million, increased 37% y/y.
• Catalyst Pharmaceuticals (CPRX) Q4 EPS $0.70 vs. est. $0.55; Q4 revs rose 28% y/y to $141.8M vs. est. $134.2M and net product revenues rose 30% y/y to $141.8M; Q4 R&D expenses $3.80M, +93% y/y; sees FY total revenue $545M-$565M vs. est. $558.1M.
• Outset Medical (OM) file $100M mixed securities shelf
• Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT) Q4 adj EPS $1.90 vs est. $1.90 on revs $658.4Mm vs est. $627.58Mm.
• Teladoc (TDOC) Q4 EPS ($0.28) vs est. ($0.24), adj EBITDA $74.835Mm vs est. $82.2Mm on revs $640.491Mm vs est. $639.55Mm; sees Q1 revs $608-629Mm vs est. $632.91Mm, adj EBITDA $47-59Mm vs est. $68.74Mm and EPS ($0.40)-($0.15) vs est. ($0.31); sees FY revs $2.468-2.576B vs est. $2.543B, adj EBITDA $278-319Mm vs est. $323.89Mm and EPS ($1.10)-($0.50) vs est. ($0.87).
• Tandem Diabetes (TNDM) Q4 EPS $0.01 vs est. ($0.23), adj op Inc ($30.2)Mm vs est. ($17.6)Mm on revs $282.6Mm vs est. $251.98Mm; guides FY revs $997Mm-1.007B vs est. $1.008B and adj EBITDA mgn approx 3%.
• Universal Health Services (UHS) Q4 adj EPS $4.92 vs est. $4.18, adj EBITDA $614.6Mm vs est. $569.21Mm on revs $4.11B vs est. $4.01B; guides FY revs $17.02-17.364B vs est. $16.717B and adj EBITDA $2.357-2.484B vs est. $2.378B.

• Salesforce Inc. (CRM) Q4 adj EPS $2.78 tops consensus $2.61, while Q4 revs $9.99B miss ests $10.04B; sees Q1 adjusted EPS $2.53-$2.55 on revs $9.71B-$9.76B, both below consensus $2.62/$9.91B; guides FY26 adjusted EPS $11.09-$11.17, vs. est. $11.21 and revs $40.5B-$40.9B vs. est. $41.36B.
• Snowflake (SNOW) Q4 EPS $0.30 vs. est. $0.18; Q4 revs rose 28% y/y to $986.8M vs. est. $956.26M and remaining performance obligations totaling $6.9B; announced an expanded partnership with Microsoft (MSFT); guides Q1 product revenue $955M-$960M vs. est. $962.6M and FY revenue $4.28B vs. est. $4.23B.
• Ambarella (AMBA) Q4 EPS $0.11 vs. est. loss (-$0.02); Q4 revs $84.0M vs. est. $78.04M; sees Q1 revenue $81M-$87M above consensus $74.22M and sees Q1 gross margin on a non-GAAP basis between 61.0%-62.5%; sees Q1 non-GAAP operating expenses between $50M-$53M.
• Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) Q4 adj EPS ($0.02) vs est. ($0.02) on revs $100.3Mm vs est. $100Mm, adj gross margin 28.9%.
• C3.ai Inc. (AI) Q3 EPS loss (-$0.12) vs. est. loss (-$0.25); Q3 revs rose 26% y/y to $98.8M vs. est. $98.1M; sees Q4 revenue $103.6M-$113.6M vs. est. $108.6M and sees FY25 revenue $383.9M-$393.9M vs. est. $388.3M; Subscription revenue for Q3 was $85.7M, constituting 87% of total revenue, up 22% y/y.
• IonQ (IONQ) Q4 EPS ($0.93) vs est. ($0.25) on revs $11.71Mm vs est. $9.93Mm, names Niccolo De Masi President and CEO; files mixed securities shelf.
• Magnite Inc. (MGNI) Q4 adj EPS $0.34 vs est. $0.36, adj EBITDA $76.5Mm vs est. $80.6Mm on revs $194Mm vs est. $184.3Mm; sees FY adj EBITDA +mid-teens pct vs est. +12.8%.
• Nutanix (NTNX) Q2 adj EPS $0.56 vs est. $0.47, adj op Inc $161.3Mm vs est. $134.3Mm on revs $654.7Mm vs est. $641.86Mm, adj op mgn 24.6% and adj gr mgn 88.3%; guides Q3 revs $620-630Mm vs est. $594.39Mm and adj op mgn 17-18%; sees FY revs $2.495-2.515B vs est. $2.461B and adj op mgn 17.5-18.5%.
• Paramount Global (PARA) Q4 revenue $7.98B vs. est. $8.1B; revenue at its TV media segment fell by 4% from a year earlier, hurt by declines in the linear advertising market and fewer sporting events on CBS; filmed entertainment division posted an adjusted operating loss of $42M; Paramount+ added 5.6M subscribers during the quarter, more than double the analysts’ expectations for 2.58M and up from 3.5M q/q.
• Pure Storage (PSTG) Q4 EPS $0.45 vs. est. $0.42; Q4 revs rose 11% y/y to $879.8M vs. est. $869.19M; guides Q1 revs $770M vs. est. $768.2M and FY revs $3,515B vs. est. $3.52B; Q4 subscription annual recurring revenue (ARR) $1.7B, up 21% y/y; remaining performance obligations (RPO) $2.6B y/y; Q4 GAAP gross margin 67.5%.
• Synopsys (SNPS) Q1 EPS $3.03 vs. est. $2.79; Q1 revs $1.46B vs. est. $1.45B; sees FY25 non-GAAP EPS $14.88-$14.96, above consensus $14.89 and sees FY25 revenue $6.75B-$6.81B vs est. $6.78B.
• TaskUs Inc. (TASK) Q4 EPS $0.31 vs. est. $0.34; Q4 revs rose 17.1% y/y to $274.2M vs. est. $268.8M; sees FY25 revenue $1.095B-$1.125B vs. est. $1.09B and FY25 adjusted EBITDA margin about 21%.
• TKO Group (TKO) Q4 EPS $0.28 vs. est. $0.21; Q4 revs $642.2M vs. est. $604.0M; sees FY25 revenue $2.93B-$3.00B, vs. est. $3.29 and sees FY25 Adjusted EBITDA of $1.350B to $1.390B vs. $1.25B in FY24.
• Amazon (AMZN) debuted its first ever quantum computing chip, joining a growing number of Big Tech names entering the quantum chip space. Called Ocelot, the chip, according to Amazon, helps solve a key problem for quantum computing systems, which could speed up the push to practical quantum computers.