Early Look

Wednesday, January 8, 2025

U.S. futures are slipping after sharp losses on Tuesday, as markets await a set of employment figures (ADP private payrolls and weekly jobless claims) and minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting later this afternoon which could shed further light on the central bank’s monetary policy outlook this year. U.S. equities slumped on Tuesday after economic data reflected a robust labor market and upbeat services activity, causing investors to push back expectations on the Fed’s first rate cut to June. This morning, the 10-yr Treasury yield pops to new 8-month highs at 4.7%, sending futures lower after a media report (CNN) that Donald Trump weighs emergency declaration for new tariff program. The headline also pushed the US dollar higher (DXY +0.67% to 109.27 while euro falls -0.55% to 1.028). Markets remain on edge ahead of Trump’s inauguration in two-weeks on fears new policies, tariffs, etc. could trigger inflation pressures and spark a global trade war with several countries. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index fell -102 points to 39,981, the Shanghai Index was little changed at 3,230, and the Hang Seng Index fell -167 points to 19,279. In Europe, the German DAX is down -10 points to 20,330, while the FTSE 100 slips -10 points as well to 8,234.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -178.20 points, or 0.42%, to 42,528.36.
• The Nasdaq Composite tumbled -375.30 points, or 1.89%, to 19,489.68.
• The Russell 2000 Index declined -16.84 points, or 0.74% to 2,249.80.

• 8:15 AM ET ADP Private Payrolls for December…est. 140K (prior 146K)
• 8:30 AM ET                  Weekly Jobless Claims…est. 218K (prior 146K)
• 8:30 AM ET                  Continuing Claims…est. 1.876M (prior 1.844M)
• 10:00 AM ET                Wholesale Inventory M/M for November…est. (-0.2%)
• 10:30 AM ET                Weekly DOE Inventory Data
• 1:00 PM ET U.S. Treasury to sell $22B in 30-year notes
• 2:00 PM ET FOMC Meeting Minutes from December 18th
• 3:00 PM ET                   Consumer Credit for November

• Earnings After the Close: GBX JEF

• Consumer Electronics Show (CES 2025), 1/7-1/10, in Las Vegas, NV
• China Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December
• Goldman Sachs Energy, CleanTech & Utilities Conference, 1/7-1/8, in Miami, FL

• Flutter Entertainment Plc (FLUT) said U.S. revenue for 2024 now estimated to be $370M lower than previous guidance midpoint at about $5.78B; said 2024 US adj EBITDA is estimated to be about $205M lower than the previous guidance midpoint at about $505M (shares fell overnight on guide, watch DKNG, CZR, MGM, PENN).
• Helen of Troy (HELE) forecasts FY adj EPS $7.15 to $7.40 vs. prior forecast $7 to $7.50; forecasts FY net sales $1.89B to $1.91B, vs. prior forecast $1.89B to $1.94B.
• Instacart parent Maplebear (CART) was selected for inclusion in the S&P MidCap 400 index effective Jan. 14, when medical-technology company Enovis (ENOV) will move to the S&P SmallCap 600 from the S&P MidCap 400.
• Kura Sushi (KRUS) Q1 EPS loss (-$0.08) vs. est. loss (-$0.20); Q1 revs $64.5M vs. est. $61.72M; Q1 adjusted EBITDA was $3.6M; said six new restaurants opened during the fiscal first quarter of 2025; sees FY25 revenue $$275M-$279M, vs. consensus $279.53M

• AZZ Inc. (AZZ) Q3 adj EPS $1.39 vs. est. $1.25; Q3 revs rose 5.8% y/y to $403.7M vs. est. $396.64M; Q3 consolidated adj EBITDA grew to $90.7M, or 22.5% of sales, primarily driven by higher volume for hot-dip galvanized steel and coil-coated materials and operational productivity over the prior year; raises FY EPS to $5.00-$5.30 from prior $4.70-$5.10 and narrows revs view to $1.55B-$1.6B from $1.53B-$1.63B.
• Exxon Mobil (XOM) said that sharply lower oil refining profits and weakness across all its businesses would reduce its Q4 earnings by about $1.75 billion from the prior quarter; also said that upstream asset sales would benefit results by about $400 million, but overall impairments would cost about $600 million.
• Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR) said its subsidiary has drilled an oil Discovery at the Hai Su Vang-1X exploration well in Block 15-2/17 in the Cuu Long Basin, located 40 miles offshore Vietnam. The well was drilled to total depth of 13,124 feet in 149 feet of water. Hai Su Vang-1X encountered approximately 370 feet of net oil pay from two reservoirs.
• Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) has been selected to be a member of the team, led by Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (KTOS), awarded a five-year OTA contract for the Multi-Service Advanced Capability Hypersonic Test Bed 2.0 under Task Area 1. The total potential value of the Contract Award over a five-year period is $1.45B.
• Shell Plc (SHEL) said its natural gas divisions saw lower sales volumes and trading earnings.

• Avita Medical (RCEL) shares fell after lowering Q4 revenue view to $18.4M, reflecting growth of about 30% y/y from prior view $22.3M-$24.3M (est. $35.85M); now expects full-year 2024 commercial revenue to be approximately $64.3M, below the prior range of $68M-$70M.
• Personalis (PSNL) boosted its FY24 revenue view to $84.6M from $83M-$84M (est. $83.4M) noting revenue from pharma tests and services, enterprise sales, and other customers of approximately $77.2M for the full year of 2024 compared with $64.1M for the full year of 2023, an increase of 20%.
• Sana Biotechnology (SANA) shares soared over 200% overnight after they released what it assessed as positive data from a study of its in-development treatment for type 1 diabetes. The company said it transplanted its treatment, UP421, into a patient with type 1 diabetes without the use of any immunosuppression.

• Samsung Electronics’ (SSNLF) prelim Q4 operating profit of 6.5 trillion won ($4.5 billion) was well below an LSEG estimate of 7.7 trillion won, saying the company was hit hard by extra costs while slowing demand for conventional memory chips used in PCs and mobile phones also weighed on earnings, it added; preliminary revenue came in at 75 trillion won, slightly lower than analysts’ estimates.
• Apple (AAPL) still cannot sell its iPhone 16 in Indonesia despite striking a deal to build a local production facility, as it has not met domestic content rules, the industry minister said on Wednesday.
• Nvidia (NVDA) closed Tuesday -6.2% to $140.14 with a high of $153.13 at the open – 50dma sitting right here $140.
• The UK’s competition regulator said on Wednesday that it might accept remedies offered by the parties in chip design software maker Synopsys’ (SNPS) $35 billion acquisition of Ansys (ANSS).