Early Look

Friday, January 13, 2023

US futures are down slightly heading into the big bank earnings results this morning, with JPMorgan, Banc America, Bank of New York, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo all expected. Stocks look to build on recent market gains after the Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 index each posted 5-day win streaks on Thursday while the S&P was paced by gains in Energy, Real Estate, and Communications Services, trading back near its 200-day moving average. Auto stocks are looking lower on margin fears as Tesla cut prices across its lineup in major European markets and the US in the latest effort to boost demand after several quarters of disappointing deliveries. Treasury yields edge higher after the 10-year Treasury yields fell 10.7 bps to 3.446% Thursday, their lowest level since Dec. 7, after December CPI data showed inflation slowed for the sixth straight month promoted a risk-on mood, sending yields and the dollar lower and stocks higher. Still no fear for investors as the CBOE Volatility index (VIX) closed 18.89, down 10.5% on the day – lowest level since April of 2022. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index fell -330 points to 26,119, the Shanghai Index rose 31 points to 3,195, and the Hang Seng Index gains 224 points to 21,738. In Europe, the German DAX is up 30 points to 15,090, while the FTSE 100 gains 30 points to 7,825.

Market Closing Prices Yesterday

·     The S&P 500 Index climbed 13.56 points, or 0.34%, to 3,983.17

·     The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 216.96 points, or 0.64%, to 34,189.97

·     The Nasdaq Composite gained 69.43 points, or 0.64%, to 11,001.11

·     The Russell 2000 Index advanced 32.01 points, or 1.74% to 1,876.06

Economic Calendar for Today

·     8:30 AM ET          Import Prices M/M for December

·     8:30 AM ET          Export Prices M/M for December

·     10:00 AM ET        University of Michigan Confidence, Jan-P

·     10:00 AM ET        University of Michigan Inflation Expectations (1 and 5-yr)

·     1:00 PM EST         Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

Earnings Calendar:

·     Earnings Before the Open: BAC BK BLK C DAL FRC JPM UNH WFC

World News

·     The Bank of Japan (BoJ) performed unscheduled bond purchases twice after Japan’s 10-year yield breaches 0.50% ceiling

·     China Dec trade $78b vs $76.9b est., exports -9.9% vs -11.1% est.

·     Fed’s Barkin Says Appropriate to Raise Rates ‘More Deliberately’ ‘; “Now, with forward-looking real rates positive across the curve and therefore our foot unequivocally on the brake, it makes sense to steer more deliberately as we work to bring inflation down,”;

·     Developing countries have sold a huge $39 billion of international bonds since the start of the year, with investors happy to pile into riskier debt as they bet global interest rates are nearing a peak. The first half of January saw 11 countries launch more than 20 dollar- and euro-denominated bond issues – Reuters

Sector News Breakdown

Consumer

·     Tesla (TSLA) slashed prices on its electric vehicles in the U.S. and Europe by as much as 20%, extending a strategy of aggressive discounting; shares down -5% this morning

·     Hanesbrands (HBI) updates Q4 financial outlook; announces departure of chief financial officer and refinancing plans; expects to report fourth-quarter 2022 net sales slightly above top end of its outlook range

·     Good Times Restaurants (GTIM) Q1 same store sales ended December 27, 2022 increased 3.0% for its Good Times brand and increased 2.4% for its Bad Daddy’s brand

·     Purple Innovation, Inc. (PRPL) announced that the Special Committee of the Purple Board of Directors has rejected a $4.35 per share unsolicited, non-binding proposal from Coliseum Capital Management, LLC to acquire all the outstanding stock of the Company it does not already own

·     VICI Properties (VICI) announces offering of 24M shares of common stock

Energy, Industrials and Materials

·     Delta Airlines (DAL) Q4 adj EPS $1.48 vs. est. $1.30; Q4 revs $13.4B vs. est. $12.22B; still sees 2023 Adj EPS $5 To $6 vs. est. $5.10 and still sees 2023 adj total revenue +15%-20% Y/Y; says as we move into 2023, the industry backdrop for air travel remains favorable and Delta is well positioned to deliver significant earnings and free cash flow growth; guides Q4 EPS in range of $0.15-$0.40, below the $0.55 est. as it forecasts a rise in non-fuel operating costs

·     ConocoPhillips (COP) is in talks with Venezuela’s national oil company Petróleos de Venezuela SA to sell oil from Venezuela in the U.S. – WSJ

·     Virgin Galactic (SPCE) shares rise after saying its commercial space flight service is on track for launch in Q2 2023; said planned upgrades completes and expects mothership to enter ground tests next week before commencing flight tests; also announced leadership changes

Financials

·     JPMorgan (JPM) Q4 EPS $3.57 vs. est. $3.07; Q4 revs $34.5B vs. est. $34.34B; as a better-than-expected performance from the bank’s traders more than offset a hit from a slump in dealmaking.

·     Wells Fargo (WFC) reported a decline in profit Q4 as it paid regulatory penalties and stockpiled money to prepare for soured loans; Q4 EPS $0.67 vs. est. $0.66; Q4 revs $19.66B vs. est. $19.98B; Q4 NIM 3.14%, efficiency ratio 82%

·     Bank America (BAC) Q4 Trading revenue excluding DVA $3.72 billion; FICC trading revenue excluding DVA $2.34 billion; Equities trading revenue excluding DVA $1.38 billion all better to in-line; Q4 Noninterest income of $9.9 billion declined $799 million, or 8%, as declines in investment banking and asset management fees offset higher sales and trading revenue

·     BlackRock (BLK) reports Q4 AUM $8.59T, down 14% y/y; Q4 adj EPS $8.93 vs. est. $8.09; reports Q4 revenue $4.34B vs. est. $4.25B

·     Earlyworks Co. Ltd. (ELWS) a Japanese blockchain company, set terms for its IPO on Friday with plans to offer 1.2 million American Depositary Shares priced at $4 to $6 each

·     Goldman Sachs (GS) said its Platform Solutions business, which includes the company’s Apple Card, lost $1.2 billion in the first nine months of 2022 (disclosed in an 8-K early Friday morning)

·     LendingClub (LC) is reducing its workforce by 14%, or 225 employees, and expects to incur related non-recurring, pre-tax charges of approximately $5.7M, of which $4.4M was expensed in Q4; anticipates the workforce reductions will result in annualized run-rate savings in compensation and benefits of approximately $25M-$30M in 2023

·     Ares Capital (ARCC) 10.5M share Spot Secondary priced at $18.83

Healthcare

·     UnitedHealth (UNH) Q4 adj EPS $5.34 vs. est. $5.17; Q4 revs $82.8B vs. est. $82.59B; said results helped by lower medical costs and boost from its Optum health services unit; said Q4 medical care ratio, the percentage of premiums versus payouts on claims, improved to 82.8% in Q4 vs 83.7% a year earlier; backs FY23 adjusted EPS view $24.40-$24.90