Morning Preview: January 16, 2025

Early Look
Thursday, January 16, 2025
Futures |
Up/Down |
% |
Last |
Dow |
-99.00 |
0.23% |
43,367 |
S&P 500 |
15.25 |
0.26% |
6,004 |
Nasdaq |
97.50 |
0.46% |
21,498 |
U.S. futures are looking mostly higher following yesterday monster rally, as markets looks to build on the strong performance Wednesday where all major indexes and almost all S&P 500 subsectors finished much higher on the day after December’s consumer price inflation report eased concerns that inflation may be re-accelerating. Nasdaq futures are outperforming behind strength in semiconductors after TSM quarterly results and guidance boosted US chip makers. Also watch luxury retailers are Europe’s Richmont posted strong quarterly results. Dow futures are lower following UNH results in managed care, with shares down -5% pre-market currently. Treasuries remain steady after Wednesday’s post-CPI rally, with US 10-year yields little changed at 4.66% after falling from highs above 4.8% yesterday. U.S. equity markets have been hurt, and U.S. Treasury yields have surged on fears that a renewed uptick in recent price pressures will block the Federal Reserve from cutting rates again this year and potentially put a rate hike on the table – but after this week’s PPI and CPI those fears have eased. Banks surged Wednesday behind better results from C, GS, JPM, BK and WFC and attention turns to BAC, MS, PNC, USB and others today. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index rose 128 points to 38,572, the Shanghai Index gained 8 points to 3,236, and the Hang Seng Index rallied 236 points to 19,522. In Europe, the German DAX is up 36 points to 20,611, while the FTSE 100 rallies 53 points to 8,354 and the Cac-40 surges 146 points to 7,620. The Japanese yen is a notable outperformer, rising 0.5% against the greenback after a report that BOJ officials see a good chance of an interest-rate increase next week.
Market Closing Prices Yesterday
- The S&P 500 Index jumped 107.00 points, or 1.83%, to 5,949.91.
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 703.27 points, or 1.65%, to 43,221.55.
- The Nasdaq Composite surged 466.84 points, or 2.45%, to 19,511.23.
- The Russell 2000 Index advanced 44.06 points, or 1.99% to 2,263.29.
Economic Calendar for Today
- 8:30 AM ET Weekly Jobless Claims…est. 210K (prior 201K)
- 8:30 AM ET Continuing Claims…est. 1.871M
- 8:30 AM ET Import Prices M/M for December…est. +0.1%
- 8:30 AM ET Export Prices M/M for December…est. +0.2%
- 8:30 AM ET Philly Fed Business Survey for January…est. (-5.0)
- 8:30 AM ET Retail Sales M/M for December…est. +0.6% (prior +0.7%)
- 8:30 AM ET Retail Sales – Less Autos for December…est. +0.4% (prior +0.2%)
- 10:00 AM ET Business Inventories M/M for November…est. +0.1%
- 10:00 AM ET NAHB Housing Market Index for January…est. 45 (prior 46)
- 10:30 AM ET Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
Earnings Calendar:
- Earnings Before the Open: BAC BSVN FHN IIIN INFY MS MTB PNC UNH USB
- Earnings After the Close: JBHT RFIL OZK
Other Key Events:
- JP Morgan 43rd Annual Healthcare Conference, 1/12-1/16, in San Francisco, CA
- China Q4 GDP and December Retail Sales data
Macro |
Up/Down |
Last |
Nymex |
-0.58 |
79.46 |
Brent |
-0.59 |
81.44 |
Gold |
17.30 |
2,735.10 |
EUR/USD |
0.0001 |
1.029 |
JPY/USD |
-0.65 |
155.82 |
10-Year Note |
+0.016 |
4.669% |
World News
- The bull-bear spread in the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) weekly survey was -15.2 vs -2.7 last week. Bulls fall to 25.4% from 34.7%, Neutrals rise to 34% from 28%, Bears rise to 40.6% from 37.4%.
Sector News Breakdown
Consumer
- Target Corp. (TGT) guides Q4 comparable sales about +1.5%, saw about flat, estimate +0.18% while still sees adjusted EPS $1.85 to $2.45 vs. estimate $2.19; still sees adjusted EPS $8.30-$8.90 vs. estimate $8.67.
- Richemont (CFRUY) reported a 10% increase in Q3 sales, much better than the 1% increase expected by analysts as its core jewelry business, which includes brands such as Cartier and Van Cleef & Arpels, recorded a 14% rise in sales, compared to a 5% analyst consensus; said it saw double-digit sales growth in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Japan (watch luxury retailers TPR, RL, BURBY, LMVUY, PPRUY).
Energy, Industrials and Materials
- BP Plc (BP) CEO Murray Auchincloss told staff on Thursday that the company is cutting 4,700 positions internally and 3,000 contractor roles.
- CACI (CACI) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies with a $515 price target saying the IT services group’s valuation has contracted from a 6% premium to a 20% discount.
- DuPont (DD) reaffirms fourth quarter and full year 2024 net sales, operating EBITDA and adjusted EPS financial guidance ahead of its February 11th earnings call.
- HB Fuller (FUL) Q4 adj EPS $0.92 vs. est. $1.00; Q4 revs $923M vs. est. $916.8M; Q4 adj Ebitda $148M vs. est. $152.5M; said FY 25 revs to be up 1%-2% or $3.61B-43.64B vs. est. $3.57B and adj Ebitda to be in range of $600M-$625M; forecasts 2025 operating cash flow $300M to $325M; sees FY capex about $160M.
- Talos Energy (TALO) announces successful drilling results at the Katmai west #2 well in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico saying they successfully encountered commercial quantities of oil and natural gas.
Financials
- Bank America (BAC) Q4 EPS $0.82 vs. est. $0.77; Q4 revs $25.35B vs. est. $25.13B; Q4 net interest income $14.36B, vs. est. $14.12B; Provision for credit losses $1.45B, vs. est. $1.57B; forecasts yr noninterest expense about 2%-3% above 2024 levels; said anticipate a stronger 2025 for dealmaking, helped by President-elect Donald Trump’s vow to implement pro-business policies; Q4 investment banking fees jumped 44% to $1.7B in Q4, compared with a year earlier.
- M&T Bank (MTB) Q4 EPS $3.92 vs. consensus $3.74; Q4 CET1 capital ratio 11.67%; Q4 net charge-offs .47%; Provisions for credit losses rose to $140M from $120M, total assets rose to $211.9M from $208.6M.
- PNC Financial (PNC) Q4 EPS $3.77 vs. est. $3.31; Q4 revs $5.57B vs. est. $5.5B; Q4 tangible book value per share $95.33, Q4 CET1 capital ratio 10.5% and provision for credit losses $156M; sees Q1 revenue down 1%-2% vs. Q4; sees Q1 average loans down about 1% and net interest income down 2-3%.
- Hindenburg Research, the legendary short-selling firm, said it has decided to shut down.
- TransUnion (TRU) has signed a definitive agreement to acquire majority ownership of Trans Union de Mexico, the consumer credit business of the largest credit bureau in Mexico, Buro de Credito. TransUnion currently owns approximately 26% of Trans Union de Mexico.
Healthcare
- UnitedHealth (UNH) Q4 adj EPS $6.81 vs. est. $6.74; Q4 revs $100.81B vs. est. $101.73B; backs FY25 adjusted EPS view $29.50-$30.00 (est. $29.86) and backs FY25 revenue view $450B-$455B (est. $445.64B); reported a full-year medical cost ratio, the % of premiums spent on medical care of 85.5%, vs. est. of 84.96%.
- Regeneron (REGN) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS and cut tgt to $738 from $1,130.
- America’s largest legal cannabis companies are backing the formation of the U.S. Cannabis Roundtable, a new advocacy group taking aim at the logjam around marijuana reform on the federal level, as Donald Trump prepares to take office in coming days – Marktwatch.com reports.
Technology, Media & Telecom
- Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) logged record quarterly profit and said it expects robust revenue growth in the first three months of the year as demand surges for chips used in artificial intelligence processing; posted a 57% jump in net income to T$374.68 billion ($11.4B) for the quarter, a record high for any quarter and in line with estimates while revenue climbed 39%; expects similar revenue growth in the current quarter of about 37% to $25-25.8B.
- Infosys (INFY), India’s second-largest IT services provider, reported better-than-expected Q3 revenue of 417.64 billion rupees ($4.83B) rising 7.6% y/y and topping analysts’ estimate of 412.78 billion rupees; raised its full-year revenue growth forecast to 4.5%-5% from 3.75%-4.5% earlier; total net profit rose 11.4% to 68.06 billion rupees in the quarter, surpassing the 67.29 billion rupees expected.
- AMD (AMD) downgraded to Peer Perform from Outperform at Wolfe Research.
- Bigbear.Ai Holdings Inc (BBAI) said Mandy Long will step down as CEO and from Board of Directors.
- Concentric Corp. (CNXC) Q4 EPS $3.26 vs. est. $3.01; Q4 revs $2.45B vs. est. $2.44B; Q4 adj Ebitda $402.9M vs. est. $407.5M; increases share repurchase to $600M; guides FY EPS $11.18-$11.77 vs. est. $11.97 and sees revs $9.47B-$9.61B vs. est. $9.73B.
- Duolingo (DUOL) sees 216% spike in U.S. users learning Chinese amid their adoption of a Chinese social app called RedNote ahead of the TikTok ban. The U.S. law, scheduled to go into effect on January 19, unless halted by the Supreme Court, will see TikTok removed from U.S. app stores.
- Priority Technology Holdings Inc (PRTH) prices secondary offering of 9,070,643 shares at $7.75 per share.
Market commentary provided by Hammerstone Markets, Inc, a firm separate from and not affiliated with Regal Securities. Regal Securities has not participated in the creation of the content, and does not explicitly or implicitly endorse the content.