Morning Preview: January 24, 2025

Early Look
Friday, January 24, 2025
Futures |
Up/Down |
% |
Last |
Dow |
-47.00 |
0.11% |
44,702 |
S&P 500 |
-9.25 |
0.16% |
6,142 |
Nasdaq |
-37.50 |
0.17% |
22,000 |
After surging in the final minutes of the day Thursday to fresh record highs for the S&P 500 (SPX), futures are looking at a slightly lower open as Treasuries remain steady and the dollar slips, lifting gold to near record highs. The US dollar weakens against all FX majors after President Trump says he would ‘rather not’ have to use tariffs on China in an interview last night. The Bank of Japan as expected raised rates by 25bps to 0.5% and provided surprisingly hawkish commentary around prospect of future rate hikes after its “hotter” CPI forecasts. As for Thursday, it was all steam ahead as the S&P 500 rose for the 4th straight session (up 7 of last 8) and closed at a fresh record high of 6,118.71. All S&P sectors finished green with Technology (XLK) closing at a new record high, up 4% this month. So far, ten of eleven sectors are up on the year, led by Energy (XLE) +7.63%, Industrials (XLI) +7.52% and Materials (XLB) +6.05%, while Consumer Staples (XLP) is the only one down at -1.41%. Stocks markets have reacted favorably thus far to President Trump comments on trade, currencies, and new policies this week since being sworn in as 47th President of U.S. Monday. In Trump’s comments to leaders at the WEF in Davos Thursday via satellite, he again warned world business leaders they face steep tariffs for products made outside of the U.S. but offered scant detail regarding their scope. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index fell -26 points to 39,931, the Shanghai Index jumped 22 points to 3,252, and the Hang Seng Index gained 365 points to 20,066. In Europe, the German DAX is up 56 points to 21,467 after hitting a record high this week, while the FTSE 100 is down -29 points to 8,535. Gold rose to near a record high on dollar weakness after President Donald Trump signaled a less aggressive approach to China.
Market Closing Prices Yesterday
- The S&P 500 Index jumped 32.34 points, or 0.53%, to 6,118.71.
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 408.34 points, or 0.92%, to 44,565.07.
- The Nasdaq Composite gained 44.34 points, or 0.22%, to 20,053.68.
- The Russell 2000 Index advanced 10.88 points, or 0.47% to 2,314.59
Economic Calendar for Today
- 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, Jan-Flash…est. 49.7
- 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Services PMI, Jan-Flash…est. 56.5
- 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Composite, Jan-flash
- 10:00 AM ET Existing Home Sales M/M for December…est. 4.19M
- 10:00 AM ET University of Michigan Sentiment, Jan-Final…est. 73.2
- 10:00 AM ET University of Michigan 1-yr and 5-yr inflation expectations, Jan-Final
- 1:00 PM ET Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data
Earnings Calendar:
- Earnings Before the Open: AXP FCNCA HCA LKFN NEE NWBI SPFI VZ
Other Key Events:
- Bank of Japan (BoJ) Policy Meeting.
- World Economic Forum (WEF) Annual Meeting 2025, 1/20-1/24, in Davos Switzerland
Macro |
Up/Down |
Last |
Nymex |
0.31 |
74.93 |
Brent |
0.42 |
78.71 |
Gold |
18.70 |
2,783.70 |
EUR/USD |
0.0069 |
1.0484 |
JPY/USD |
-0.05 |
156.00 |
10-Year Note |
+0.005 |
4.641% |
World News
- The BOJ held its Monetary Policy Meeting on January 23-24 and decided to raise the policy interest rate from 0.25% to 0.5%, which was in-line with Street expectations. The BOJ also outlined its stance on the conduct of monetary policy after this rate hike, stating that “if the outlook for economic activity and prices will be realized, the Bank will accordingly continue to raise the policy interest rate and adjust the degree of monetary accommodation”.
- Alongside the rate hike decision, the BoJ revised its inflation forecasts upwards while maintaining GDP projections. Consumer price inflation for 2025 is now expected to reach 2.4%, up from a previous estimate of 1.9%, exceeding market expectations. This revision reflects an evolution in the BoJ’s outlook, with core and core-core inflation projections now above 2% through the forecast horizon.
- President Donald Trump signed an executive order Thursday establishing a crypto working group to be led by David Sacks, the administration’s AI and crypto czar, but he did not create a bitcoin stockpile at this time. The order charges the team, which will include the Treasury Secretary, Attorney General and head of the SEC, with coming up with an overall federal strategy for regulating crypto assets and stablecoins. It overturns prior executive actions by the Biden administration and forbids further work on central bank digital currencies.
- A gauge of insider sentiment that tallies the number of buyers versus sellers shows there were just 98 companies where at least one insider purchased the company’s shares this month through Jan. 22, compared with 447 at which at least one insider sold, according to data compiled by the Washington Service. With a little over a week of trading left in January, that buy-sell ratio, at 0.22, is currently on track to be the lowest in data going back to 1988 – Bloomberg https://tinyurl.com/3kupz65n
Sector News Breakdown
Consumer
- Burberry (BURBY) shares rise after results, as posts Q3 retail comparable sales -4% vs. -4% y/y and better than the expected -12.8% decline with smaller comp losses in Asia (-9% vs. est. -19.6%) and China (-7% vs. est. -18%) while America comparable sales rose an unexpected +4% vs. est. -9.4%; watch shares of other luxury retailers on comp data including TPR, CPRI, RL, PPRUY, CFRUY, EL, LVMUY.
- Indian ride-hailing firm Ola Consumer said it does not set fares based on a user’s phone model, a day after global rival Uber (UBER) denied allegations of differential pricing for Android and Apple (AAPL) phones.
Energy, Industrials and Materials
- Acuity Brands (AYI) board boosts dividend 13% to 17c per share.
- Boeing (BA) reported prelim Q4 GAAP EPS loss of (-$5.46) vs. est. loss (-$1.66); said to recognize impacts from IAM work stoppage and defense charges; commercial airplanes to recognize $1.1 billion pre-tax charges; guides prelim Q4 revs $15.2B, below est. $16.76B; guides prelim Q4 GAAP loss/shr of (-$5.46) and prelim Q4 neg operating cash flow (-$3.5B), vs. est. (-$3.62B).
- CSX Corp. (CSX) Q4 adj EPS $0.42 vs est. $0.42 on revs $3.54B vs est. $3.576B; Q4 Operating income fell -16% y/y to $1.11B (est. $1.24B) and total carloads rose 1.3% y/y to 1.58M; forecasts CAPEX about flat YoY excluding hurricane rebuild spending.
- Covenant Logistics (CVLG) Q4 adj EPS $0.49 vs est. $0.49 on revs $277.3Mm vs est. $284.91Mm; in outlook company says, “…the general freight market appears to be incrementally improving as capacity and demand are better balanced…but in our dedicated markets, customers continue to experience greater than expected temporary customer shutdowns and volume pressure.
- Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies and cut tgt to $40 from $48 citing the company’s ongoing challenges in Indonesia, the impact of its higher spending on estimates, and its neutral near-term view on copper for the downgrade.
- GE Vernova (GEV) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Guggenheim.
- Textron (TXT) downgraded to Neutral at Bank America on near-term challenges.
Financials
- Affirm Holdings (AFRM) has lined up $750 million in funding from the asset-management unit of insurer Liberty Mutual, bringing in additional capital to fuel its consumer-lending activities, the WSJ reported.
- Byline Bancorp (BY) Q4 EPS $0.69 vs. est. $0.61; Q4 revs $104.67M vs. est. $100.37M; Q4 net interest income $88.5M; Q4 credit loss provision -$6.9M.
- Columbia Banking (COLB) Q4 EPS $0.71 vs. est. $0.65; Q4 net interest margin 3.64% vs. 3.78% last year; Net interest income increased by $7 million from the prior quarter; Non-interest income decreased by $16 million.
- Customers Bancorp. (CUBI) Q4 core EPS $1.36 vs est. $1.21, NIM 3.11%, core ROCE 10.44%, CET1 capital ratio 12%.
- East West Bancorp Inc (EWBC) announces $300M share repurchase authorization; Q4 EPS $2.10 vs. est. $2.12; reports FY24 revenue $2.62B vs. est. $2.60B; Full-year returns on average assets were 1.60%, returns on average common equity were 15.9%, and book value per share grew 12% year-over-year.
- Metropolitan Bank Holding (MCB) Q4 EPS $1.88 vs est $1.42 on NII $66.6Mm vs est. $64.06Mm.
- SLM Corp. (SLM) Q4 core EPS $0.50 vs. est. $0.55; sees FY25 EPS $3.00-$3.10 vs. est. $3.06; reported Q4 Net interest margin (NIM) 4.92% vs. 5.37% y/y and Net interest income (NII) $362M, -6.2% y/y.
- SouthState Corp. (SSB) Q4 adj EPS $1.93 vs. est. $1.72; Q4 net interest margin (NIM) 3.48% vs. 3.40% q/q and NII $370M; Q4 Tangible Book Value per share was $51.11 from $51.26 q/q; Q4 Tier 1 Leverage, and Tier 1 Common Equity ratios of 8.8%, 15.0%, 10.0%, and 12.6%, respectively.
- Mastercard (MA) and Visa (V) failed to stop their payment networks from laundering proceeds from child sexual abuse material and sex trafficking on the popular website OnlyFans, according to allegations in a previously undisclosed whistleblower complaint filed with the U.S. Treasury’s financial crimes unit – Reuters
Healthcare
- Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q4 adj EPS $2.21 vs. est. $1.81 while revs rose 25% y/y to $2.41B vs. est. $2.26B; Q4 Instruments and accessories revenue $1.41B, +23% y/y, Systems revenue $654.6M, +36% y/y, services revenue $347.4M, +14% y/y, and worldwide procedure growth +18% vs. +21% y/y; forecasts 2025 da VINCI procedure growth +13% to +16% and gross profit margin 67% to 68%, vs. est. 68.6%.
- Novo Nordisk (NVO) shares rise after announced new data for a new weight-loss drug which appeared to be more efficient than its blockbuster drugs currently on the market, Ozempic and Wegovy. The mid-stage clinical trial showed patients that moved to the highest dosage of 20mg of the new medicine Amycretin lost 22% of their body weight in over 36 weeks.
Technology, Media & Telecom
- Texas Instruments (TXN) Q4 EPS $1.30 vs est. $1.20 on revs $4.007B vs est. $3.875B; guides Q1 revs $3.74-4.06B vs est. $3.848B and EPS $0.94-1.16 vs est. $1.17.
- Twilio (TWLO) at its Investor Day said its adjusted operating margin will reach between 21-22% in 2027, higher than Wall Street consensus and above the 16.1% margin in the most recent quarter; provided strong free cash flow guidance for 2025, with a revenue forecast that was in line with expectations; authorized share buyback program of $2.0B; expects Q4 adj. Income from ops above top of guidance.
- Ericsson (ERIC) Q4 adjusted operating profit expectations missed consensus reflecting a slowdown in India and sending its shares down 8%; Operating profit excluding restructuring costs and impairments was 9.8 billion crowns ($897 million) in the quarter, up from 7.4 billion a year earlier, yet fell short of the 10.3 billion crowns consensus.
- 3D Systems (DDD) announced a collaboration with Daimler Truck to facilitate remote spare-part production.
Market commentary provided by Hammerstone Markets, Inc, a firm separate from and not affiliated with Regal Securities. Regal Securities has not participated in the creation of the content, and does not explicitly or implicitly endorse the content.