Early Look

Tuesday, July 1, 2025

U.S. futures are taking a little breather, as S&P futures (Spuz) edge lower following 7-straight days of gains on Monday, ending the month of June and quarter on a strong note. On Monday, the benchmark S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite extended their record run from last week, closing at new all-time highs on bets of deeper U.S. interest rate cuts and renewed optimism around AI. Investor focus is now on a July 9 deadline for countries to reach deals with the U.S. or see tariffs spike higher, but Trump has said he could extend the tariff deadline or “make it shorter”. For the month the S&P 500 gained 4.96%, the Nasdaq rose 6.57%, and the Dow climbed 4.31%. For the quarter the S&P 500 gained 10.57%, the Nasdaq climbed 17.75%, and the Dow climbed 4.98% (marked the best quarter for markets since December 2023). The U.S. dollar falls further this morning, as the euro tops 1.18 (4-year highs) after the greenback crashes -13% YTD vs. the euro and Treasury yields dip with the 10-yr below 4.2%. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index tumbled -500 points to 39,986, the Shanghai Index rose 13 points to 3,457, and the Hang Seng Index fell -211 points to 24,072. In Europe, the German DAX is down -108 points to 23,801, while the FTSE 100 is down -20 points to 8,740. Today marks the first day of July and the new quarter and is historically a strong day. @AlmanacTrader posted last night ahead of today’s trading, “Most Bullish Day of Year! 1st Day July S&P 500 Up 14 Straight, up 90.5% of the time since 2004, avg gain +0.44%. DJIA & NASDAQ are nearly as strong, up 81.0% and 85.7% respectively. Most consistently bullish day of the year!” 

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 275.50 points, or 0.63%, to 44,094.77
• The Nasdaq Composite gained 96.28 points, or 0.48%, to 20,369.73
• The Russell 2000 Index edged higher 2.51 points, or 0.12% to 2,175.04

• 8:55 AM ET                  Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
• 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, June-Final…prior 52.0
• 10:00 AM ET ISM Manufacturing PMI for June…est. 48.8
• 10:00 AM ET                JOLTs Job openings for May…est. 7.30M (prior 7.391M)
• 10:00 AM ET                Construction Spending M/M for May…est. (-0.2%)
• 10:30 AM ET                Dallas Fed Services for June
• 4:30 PM ET API Weekly Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: GBX STZ

• Nio Inc. (NIO) delivered 24,925 vehicles in June 2025, representing an increase of 17.5% y/y. The Company delivered 72,056 vehicles in the second quarter of 2025, representing an increase of 25.6% year-over-year.
• Tesla (TSLA) shares slide pre mkt after sales decline for sixth straight month in Sweden and Denmark in June y/y. Denmark Tesla sales down 61.6%, Model Y sales slump 31.2% y/y; Sweden registrations fall 64.4%. However, Norway Tesla registrations surge 53.8% during the same period. Spain new Tesla registrations climb 60.7% y/y in June to 2,632 cars.
• Wynn Resorts (WYNN), Las Vegas Sands (LVS), MGM Resorts (MGM) shares are rising overnight after Macau’s Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) for June 2025 was MOP21.06 billion (approximately US$2.61 billion). This represents a 19.0% y/y increase compared to June 2024, but a slight 0.6% decrease from May 2025’s MOP21.19 billion.
• XPENG (XPEV) delivered 34,611 Smart EVs, representing a y/y increase of 224% and marking the eighth consecutive month that deliveries exceeded 30,000 units. In the second quarter of 2025, XPENG delivered 103,181 Smart EVs, setting a new quarterly record. This brings XPENG’s total deliveries for the first half of 2025 to 197,189 Smart EVs, surpassing its full-year 2024 total deliveries.

• MSC Industrial (MSM) Q3 adjusted EPS $1.08 vs. consensus $1.03 and revs $971.15M vs. est. $969.19M
• Oshkosh (OSK) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
• Ralliant Corp. (RAL) will replace Wolfspeed Corp. (WOLF) in the S&P SmallCap 600 effective prior to the opening of trading on Tuesday, July 1. S&P 500 constituent Fortive Corp. (FTV) is spinning off Ralliant in a transaction expected to be completed on June 30.
• Textron (TXT) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman Sachs amid share loss in business jets.

• Applied DNA Sciences Inc (APDN) announces strategic restructuring to focus on LinearX; implements 27% workforce reduction, ceases ADCL operations.
• Dexcom (DXCM) shares slip after the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) issued a proposed rule that proposes updates to Medicare payment policies and rates for home health agencies (HHAs) under the Home Health (HH) Prospective Payment System (PPS) Proposed Rule for calendar year (CY) 2026.
• Dyne Therapeutics (DYN) 24.2M share Spot Secondary priced at $8.25
• Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays’.
• Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX) announced the initiation of a Phase 1 first-in-human clinical study to evaluate the safety, tolerability, pharmacokinetics, pharmacodynamics and immunogenicity of investigational compound NBIP-01435 in healthy adult participants.

• Quantum Corporation (QMCO) announced that it has filed a Notification of Late Filing on Form 12b-25 with respect to its Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2025.
• Progress Software (PRGS) Q2 adj EPS $1.40 vs est. $1.30 on revs $237Mm vs est. $237.52Mm, ARR $838MM, adj op mgn 40%; sees Q3 revs $237-243Mm vs est. $238.54Mm and adj EPS $1.28-1.34 vs est. $1.30; guides FY revs $962-974Mm vs est. $964.82Mm, adj op mgn 38-39% and adj EPS $5.28-5.40 vs est. $5.30; raises full year guidance for revenue, operating margin, earnings per share, and cash flow.
• Wolfspeed (WOLF) filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection; the company said it had $1.3 billion in cash as of the Q3 and expects to emerge from Chapter 11 by the end of the quarter.
• The prospective buyer of TikTok’s American operations cited by President Donald Trump is the same investor consortium including Oracle Corp., Blackstone Inc. and venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz, whose bid for the app had stalled amid US-China trade tensions, according to a person familiar with the matter – Bloomberg reported last night.