Early Look

Thursday, July 6, 2023

Futures	Up/Down	%	Last
Dow	-134.00	0.39%	34,375
S&P 500	-19.00	0.42%	4,464
Nasdaq	-77.50	0.50%	15,283

 

 

U.S. stock futures are under pressure, falling across the board as Treasury extend yesterday gains into key jobs data today and tomorrow. The 10-year yield is again eyeing the 4% level not seen since the implosion of Silicon Valley Bank in March, and the 2-year bond yield is just a few basis points shy of 5%, and close to its highest since 2006. Big day of jobs data with ADP Employment at 8:15 AM (est. 228K vs. prior 278K, weekly jobless claims est. 245K and JOLTS Job Openings for May (est. 9.935M vs. prior 10.1M) – then Nonfarm payrolls on Friday. Markets are pricing in an 89% probability that the Fed will raise interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 5.25% to 5.50% after its meeting on July 26, according to the CME FedWatch tool. U.S. stocks finished modestly lower Wednesday as investors weighed minutes from the Federal Reserve’s June meeting and signs of slowing growth in China. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen lands in Beijing, in a visit aimed at repairing ties between the world’s two largest economies. Stocks look to rebound after falling Wednesday after news from China, which said it would control exports of some metals widely used in the semiconductor industry as tensions between Beijing and Washington rise over access to high-tech microchips. The materials sector was the weakest S&P 500 sector, followed by industrials on Wednesday. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index dropped -1.7% or 565 points to 32,773, the Shanghai Index fell -0.54% to 3,205, and the Hang Seng Index plunged -3% or 577 points to 18,533. In Europe, the German DAX is down -183 points to 15,754, while the FTSE 100 is down -103 points or 1.39% at 7,338.

 

Economic Calendar for Today

·     7:00 AM ET             MBA Mortgage Applications Data

·     7:30 AM ET             Challenger Layoffs for June

·     8:15 AM ET             ADP Employment Change for June…est. 228K (prior 278K)

·     8:30 AM ET             Weekly Jobless Claims…est. 245K

·     8:30 AM ET             Continuing Claims…est. 1.745M

·     8:30 AM ET             International Trade Data for May…est. (-$69.0B)

·     8:45 AM ET             Fed’s Logan Speaks on Policy Challenges for Central Banks

·     9:45 AM ET             S&P Global Composite PMI, June -F…prior 53.1

·     9:45 AM ET             S&P Global Services PMI, June-F

·     10:00 AM ET           ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for June…est. 51.0

·     10:00 AM ET           JOLTs Job Openings for May…est. 9.935M

·     10:30 AM ET           Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data

·     11:00 AM ET           Weekly DOE Inventory Data

 

Earnings Calendar:

·     Earnings Before the Open: LEVI

·     Earnings After the Close: AZZ KRUS SLP

 

Market Closing Prices Yesterday

·     The S&P 500 Index dropped -8.77 points, or 0.20%, to 4,446.82.

·     The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -129.83 points, or 0.38%, to 34,288.64.

·     The Nasdaq Composite slipped -25.12 points, or 0.18%, to 13,791.65.

·     The Russell 2000 Index declined -23.87 points, or 1.26% to 1,872.91.

 

 

Macro	Up/Down	Last
Nymex	0.17	71.96
Brent	0.00	76.65
Gold	3.10	1,930.20
EUR/USD	0.0035	1.0886
JPY/USD	-0.82	143.82
10-Year Note	+0.034	3.979%

 

 

World News

·     The American Petroleum Institute said weekly crude inventories fell -4.382M in latest week (vs. draw of -2.408M week prior) while gasoline stockpiles rose 289K barrels and gasoline inventories rose 1.615M barrels this week.

·     The bull-bear spread in the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) weekly survey was 21.9 vs 14.4 last week. Bulls rise to 46.4% from 41.9%, Neutrals fall to 29.1% from 30.6%, Bears fall to 24.5% from 27.5%.

·     Retail sales in the Eurozone flatlined in May for the second month in a row, a weaker result than expected for a rise of 0.2%. On an annual basis, the volume of sales was down 2.9% in May.

·     Australia’s trade surplus on aggregate goods and services surplus rose $1,337m in May to $11.791B. Exports lifted 4.4%, while imports rose 2.5% driven by a 7.7% rise in consumption imports.

 

Sector News Breakdown

Consumer

·     Coty Inc. (COTY) boosted its adjusted EBITDA guidance for the full year to $965M-$970M from the prior view $955M-$965M (est. $961.4M) and boosted Q4 rev growth to +12-15% on a like-for-like basis, up from its previous outlook for +10% growth.

·     Genius Sports (GENI) said it was extending an exclusive partnership with the NFL to distribute live game data and statistics to media and betting markets until the 2027-28 season; also gains the exclusive rights to distribute the NFL’s watch and bet live video feeds to sportsbooks.

·     Target Corp. (TGT) said it’s planning a Target Circle Week for back-to-school deals from July 9 to 15, followed by another week for back-to-college deals July 16 to Aug. 26.

 

Energy, Industrials and Materials

·     ExxonMobil (XOM) said it sees change in gas prices to negatively impact Q2 upstream earnings by $2.2B-$1.8B vs Q1; said gas prices to lower upstream earnings by $2 billion; says refining margins to lower earnings by $2.1 billion.

·     JetBlue (JBLU) said it won’t appeal a judge’s ruling to undo the airline’s partnership with American Airlines (AAL). JetBlue is in the process of trying to acquire budget carrier Spirit Airlines (SAVE), a deal the Justice Department sued to block earlier this year.

 

Financials

·     Bank of America (BAC) announces plan to increase quarterly dividend 9% to $0.24 per share.

·     Affirm Holdings Inc. (AFRM) downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at Piper as higher rates and competition put pressure on margins.

·     BlackRock (BLK) has resubmitted its filing through Nasdaq to include new details to launch an exchange-traded fund backed by bitcoin. The SEC approved several bitcoin futures-based ETFs in the past but has yet to green light anything that invests directly in bitcoin itself.

 

Healthcare

·     Allarity (ALLR) prices 2.44M shares at $4.50 in public offering.

·     Histogen Inc. (HSTO) to explore strategic alternatives; said has decided to pause further development of its programs and commence a process to explore strategic alternatives.

·     VBI Vaccines (VBIV) and Brii Biosciences expand Hepatitis B partnership to address both prevention and treatment in license and collaboration agreements for up to $437M w/royalties; announces concurrent public offering, registered direct offering.

 

Technology, Media & Telecom

·     Meta Platforms (META) is edging higher in US premarket trading after Instagram officially unveiled Threads, an app designed as a direct rival to Twitter. The move is set to extend Wednesday’s market beating gains.

·     Vimeo (VMEO) said CEO Anjali Sud will leave the company next month to pursue other opportunities. Board member Adam Gross, a former Salesforce and Dropbox executive, will take over as interim CEO, effective Sept. 1.