Early Look

Wednesday, July 12, 2023

Futures	Up/Down	%	Last
Dow	41.00	0.12%	34,505
S&P 500	8.25	0.18%	4,481
Nasdaq	32.50	0.21%	15,292

 

 

The day is upon us as the June consumer price index (CPI) inflation report is due at 8:30 AM ET, and expectations are for prices to drop from the prior month. Estimates indicate Consumer Price Index (CPI) Headline M/M for June est. to rise +0.3% (prior +0.1%) and the CPI Headline Y/Y for June expected to rise +3.1% (prior +4.0%). On a core basis, Ex: Food & Energy M/M for June est. to rise +0.3% (prior +0.4%) and on a Y/Y core basis, est. to rise +5.0% (prior +5.3%). The US dollar has slid 4-straight days into the number to 2-month lows, while Treasury yields pull back after hitting multi-week highs last week. Expectations remain for a 25-bps hike at the July FOMC meeting regardless of today’s CPI outcome, but a “softer” reading could lower expectations of any additional hikes this year. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index fell -259 points to 31,943, the Shanghai Index fell -25 points to 3,196, and the Hang Seng Index rose 201 points to 18,860. In Europe, the German DAX is up 130 points to 15,922, while the FTSE 100 jumps over 1% or 80 points to 7,362.

 

U.S. stocks rose Tuesday, posting back-to-back gains as traders awaited key inflation data. Stocks finished near the highs on Tuesday after MSFT won a court approval to move ahead with its $69 billion deal to buy ATVI, defeating an effort by the US Federal Trade Commission to block the deal and later UK regulators followed by putting a pause on their opposition to the plan. In Europe, Broadcom Inc.’s $61 billion acquisition of cloud-computing company VMware Inc. is poised to be approved by European Union’s merger officials, according to reports. The news was welcomed by Wall Street, paving the way for possible renewed MA& activity with less government scrutiny in the future. The US dollar hits 2-month lows while oil hit 10-week highs.

 

Market Closing Prices Yesterday

·     The S&P 500 Index jumped 29.72 points, or 0.67%, to 4,439.25.

·     The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 316.42 points, or 0.93%, to 34,260.82.

·     The Nasdaq Composite gained 75.22 points, or 0.55%, to 13,760.70.

·     The Russell 2000 Index advanced 18.11 points, or 0.96% to 1,913.36.

 

Economic Calendar for Today

·     7:00 AM ET            MBA Mortgage Applications Data

·     8:30 AM ET            Consumer Price Index (CPI) Headline M/M for June…est. +0.3% (prior +0.1%)

·     8:30 AM ET            Consumer Price Index (CPI) Headline Y/Y for June…est. +3.1% (prior +4.0%)

·     8:30 AM ET            CPI Core Ex: Food & Energy M/M for June…est. +0.3% (prior +0.4%)

·     8:30 AM ET            CPI Core Ex: Food & Energy Y/Y for June…est. +5.0% (prior +5.3%)

·     8:30 AM ET            Fed’s Barkin Speaks on Inflation

·     9:45 AM ET            Fed’s Kashkari Discusses Monetary Policy, Banking Solvency

·     10:30 AM ET          Weekly DOE Inventory Data

·     11:00 AM ET          Cleveland Fed CPI for June

·     1:00 PM ET             US Treasury to sell $32B in 10-year notes.

·     1:00 PM ET             Fed’s Bostic Speaks at Atlanta Fed Payments Forum

·     2:00 PM ET             Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book

 

Other Key Events:

·     SEMICON West 2023, 7/11-7/13

·     China Trade Balance, Import, Export Data for June

 

 

Macro	Up/Down	Last
Nymex	0.10	74.93
Brent	0.00	79.40
Gold	2.10	1,939.20
EUR/USD	0.0012	1.1018
JPY/USD	-0.73	139.66
10-Year Note	-0.028	3.954%

 

 

Sector News Breakdown

Consumer

·     Kim Kardashian is in talks to buy back the minority stake of her beauty company she had sold to beauty and fragrance seller Coty (COTY), the WSJ reported. The sale price hasn’t been determined and talks could still break down before a final deal is reached for the stake in SKKN BY KIM, the people said. https://tinyurl.com/2p9x2f6y

·     DraftKings (DKNG) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Bank America and raised tgt to $35 from $25 saying product and revenue momentum are on the cusp of driving an inflection in margins and profitability.

·     JBS SA is moving ahead with a long-delayed plan to go public in the US. The world’s largest meat supplier has filed a registration request to the U.S. SEC and will seek shareholder approval to trade its stock on the NYSE through a direct listing.

·     TJX (TJX) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Loop Capital.

 

Energy, Industrials and Materials

·     Grainger (GWW) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS.

·     PBF Energy’s (PBF) 156,400 barrel-per-day capacity refinery in Martinez, California reported the release of coke dust, Contra Costa Health (CCH) Services wrote Tuesday.

·     Raytheon Technologies Corp.’s (RTX) Pratt & Whitney has signed a $5.5 billion modification to the previously awarded F117 Engine Sustainment Support contract with the United States Air Force, the company said Wednesday.

·     Terex (TEX) raised its quarterly dividend by 13% to $0.17.

 

Financials

·     Coinbase (COIN) downgraded to neutral at Atlantic Equities following the crypto exchange’s recent surge on optimism over the potential US approval of a Bitcoin ETF.

·     Redfin (RDFN) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at DA Davidson.

·     JPMorgan (JPM) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup with an unchanged price target of $160 ahead of the Q2 results.

 

Healthcare

·     Acadia Healthcare (ACHC) said on July 7, a jury awarded plaintiff in case related to Co compensatory damages of $80M and punitive damages of $405M.

·     AstraZeneca (AZN) and Daiichi Sankyo’s Enhertu has been approved in China as a monotherapy; AZN also upgraded to Buy at UBS.

·     CVS Health Corp.’s (CVS) Caremark prescription drug-benefits manager spent Tuesday trying to return to normal following delays that began on Monday, according to the Wall Street Journal late Tuesday. CVS sent letters to pharmacies nationwide warning of an “unexpected system slowdown,” and that operations were back to normal, the Journal reported.

·     Illumina (ILMN) was hit with a more than $400M fine from the European Union for proceeding with its acquisition of cancer-test developer Grail Inc. before the bloc’s antitrust watchdog had decided whether to approve the deal.

·     Incyte (INCY) announced positive topline results from its randomized, vehicle-controlled, pivotal Phase 3 TRuE-AD3 study evaluating the safety and efficacy of ruxolitinib cream in children with atopic dermatitis. The study met its primary endpoint.

·     Silk Road Medical (SILK) shares fall after the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) posted a proposed national coverage determination for percutaneous transluminal angioplasty of the carotid artery concurrent with stenting. Piper Sandler said the agency’s proposal to grant reimbursement for carotid artery stenting (CAS) would be a net negative for Silk Road if finalized.

 

Technology, Media & Telecom

·     Disney (DIS) is exploring strategic options for its Star India business, including a joint venture or a sale, a sign of strain at one of the premier properties it acquired from Fox – WSJ.

·     Cisco (CSCO) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Bank America.

·     The European Union cleared Broadcom’s (AVGO) acquisition of VMware (VMW), worth some $77 billion at current prices, with a green light for the takeover from a historically tough-on-tech regulator being the latest sign that tech deal momentum could build.