Early Look

Friday, July 14, 2023

U.S. futures are looking flat to slightly higher, on track to close out another big week of returns for US stocks heading into a big day for bank earnings. Dow futures already bounced after healthcare giant UNH reported a quarterly beat and raise guidance as did JP Morgan. Wells Fargo and Citigroup are also on tap Friday morning. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both notched fresh 52-week closing highs on Thursday as tech paced the broad gains on Wall Street on Thursday while the S&P 500 closed back above 4500 for the first time since April 2022. @Barchart tweets: “Roughly 84% of S&P 500 stocks are trading above their 50D moving average. When this number has reached at least 80%, the S&P 500 has gone on to generate an average gain of 6.1% in the next 6 months, and 12.3% in the next year.” Shares of cryptocurrency and blockchain-related companies soared Thursday after a U.S. judge ruled in favor of XRP-token issuer Ripple Labs in landmark victory for crypto industry. Bitcoin down slightly this morning at $31,150, while the US dollar looks to snap its recent slide, down over 3% this week (largest decline since November) on the softer PPI/CPI inflation data points on Wednesday/Thursday. The Nasdaq is set to announce Friday how it will reweight the Nasdaq 100 via a “special rebalance” that will take place on July 24. The “Magnificent Seven,” Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Google stock, Amazon.com, Tesla and Meta Platforms are expected to see lower weights. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index fell -28 points to 32,391, the Shanghai Index edged higher 1 point to 3,237, and the Hang Seng Index rose 63 points to 19,413. In Europe, the German DAX is down -39 points to 16,101, while the FTSE 100 rises 13 points to 7,453.

Market Closing Prices Yesterday

·     The S&P 500 Index jumped 37.81 points, or 0.85%, to 4,509.97.

·     The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 46.86 points, or 0.14%, to 34,394.29.

·     The Nasdaq Composite surged 219.61 points, or 1.58%, to 14,138.57.

·     The Russell 2000 Index advanced 17.51 points, or 0.91% to 1,950.89.

Economic Calendar for Today

·     8:30 AM ET            Import Prices M/M for June

·     8:30 AM ET            Export Prices M/M for June

·     10:00 AM ET          University of Michigan Confidence, July-P

·     10:00 AM ET          UoM 1year and 5-year inflation expectations, July-P

·     1:00 PM ET             Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

Earnings Calendar:

·     Earnings Before the Open: BLK C JPM STT UNH UNTY WFC

World News

·     Goldman strategists warn surging equities face lingering risks; they remain neutral on stocks; upgrade bonds and cut commodities; say slowing global growth could hit earnings revisions in 2H – Bloomberg reports

Sector News Breakdown

Consumer

·     Leslie Pools (LESL) shares fall as guides 3Q sales $611Mm vs est. $703.7Mm and comps -12%, sees 3Q adj EPS $0.39-0.41 vs est. $0.69; sees FY net sales $1.43-1.45Mm vs est. $1.6Mm and adj EPS $0.28-0.32 vs est. $0.77; lowers FY adj. EBITDA $170m to $180m, from $280m to $310m.

·     Funko, Inc. (FNKO) said that Brian Mariotti will take a leave of absence and cease serving as Funko’s CEO with full support from the company’s Board of Directors.

·     Boyd Gaming (BYD) upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Morgan Stanley.

Energy, Industrials and Materials

·     BHP Group (BHP) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan.

·     Intuitive Machines (LUNR) said it successfully completed a spacecraft test run of its Nova-C lunar lander at the Houston Spaceport.

Financials

·     JPMorgan (JPM) Q2 adj EPS $4.37 vs. est. $3.99; Q2 revs $41.3B and managed revenue $42.4B, vs. consensus $38.96B; Total avg. deposits $1.35 trillion, Return on equity 11.4%, Common equity Tier 1 ratio 10.7%; non-interest expenses $12.99B and provision for credit losses $1.71B.

·     BlackRock (BLK) Q2 adjusted EPS $9.28 vs. est. $8.46; Q2 revs $4.46B vs. est. $4.47B; Q2 operating margin 42.5%; posted $831 billion increase in assets under management since end 2022 up to $9.4 trillion.

·     Unity Bancorp (UNTY) Q4 EPS $0.95 vs. est. $0.87; realized $9.7 million of net income, or $0.95 per diluted share which represents 1.60% ROA and 16.19% ROE.

·     A big day for crypto on Thursday as Bitcoin jumped 3.4% to its highest since June 2022 at $31,778, boosted after a U.S. judge ruled Ripple did not violate federal securities law by selling its XRP token (XRP) on public exchanges. The momentum poured out into Bitcoin leveraged stocks including COIN which rose over 20% as well as BITF, and crypto miners RIOT, MARA, HUT.

Healthcare

·     UnitedHealth (UNH) Q2 adj EPS $6.14 vs. est. $6.01; Q2 revenue rose 15.6% y/y to $92.9B vs. est. $91B; raised its adjusted EPS guidance range to $24.70 to $25.00 from $24.50 to $25.00; UnitedHealthcare Q2 revenue rose 13.0% to $70.2 billion and Optum revenue increased 24.8% to $56.3 billion. Medical care ratio of 83.2% compared with 81.5% a year ago.

·     Acadia Pharmaceuticals (ACAD) acquires ex-North American rights to trofinetide and global rights to Neuren’S Nnz-2591 in Rett Syndrome and fragile X syndrome.

·     Apogee Therapeutics (APGE) 17.65M share IPO priced at $17.00.

·     Caribou Biosciences (CRBU) files to sell $100M in common stock.

·     Roivant Sciences (ROIV) is close to agreeing on a sale of its experimental drug treating ulcerative colitis and Crohn’s disease to Roche (RHHBY) for over $7B – WSJ https://tinyurl.com/swfkuhkd

·     Theseus Pharmaceuticals (THRX) shares plunge overnight after discontinuing enrollment in the ongoing phase 1/2 study and terminating development of THE-630 in patients with gastrointestinal stromal tumors, or GIST.

Technology, Media & Telecom

·     Microsoft (MSFT) upgraded to Buy from Neutral saying cloud infrastructure spending is starting to stabilize after a significant deceleration over the past year.

·     Ericsson (ERIC) shares slid after Q3 guidance missed expectations; Ericsson said it expected Q3 EBITA margin to be in line with or slightly higher than Q2, followed by a seasonally stronger Q4.

·     Nokia (NOK) cut its annual outlook saying it now expects sales in the year at 23.2 billion euros ($26.02 billion) against 24.6 billion seen earlier, saying high inflation affects customer’s spending plans; also sees net Q2 sales at 5.7 billion euros, vs. consensus.

·     Aehr Test Systems (AEHR) 4Q EPS $0.23 vs est. $0.22 on revs $22.269Mm vs est. $22.01Mm; guides FY24 revs at least $100Mm vs est. $102.58Mm.