Early Look

Monday, June 12, 2023

U.S. futures are edging higher early, as front month June S&P futures (Spuz) roll to September this morning, widening its spread between S&P (SPX) to 40 points today (June futures will formally expire Friday June 16th and stop trading). A huge week of potential catalysts for major markets with inflation data (CPI) tomorrow morning, the Fed meeting on Wednesday and press conference, followed by the ECB meeting Thursday and Bank of Japan on Friday. U.S. stocks climbed again last week as the S&P posted its 4th consecutive weekly advance, now up more than 20% from its October 2022 low (and only -12% away from all-time high close), while the Nasdaq Composite made it a 7th-straight weeks of gains (longest since Jan 2020), while the Nasdaq 100 hits fresh intraday 52-week highs led by tesla (TSLA) up 11-straight days, software and semi stocks.

This week, Federal Reserve policymakers are expected to take their first break from an interest-rate hiking campaign that started 15 months ago, even as they confront a resilient US economy and persistent inflation. The Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday is expected to maintain its benchmark lending rate at the 5%-5.25% range, marking the first skip after 10 straight hikes. Inflation data tomorrow (CPI) and Wednesday (PPI) could shake things up however. Swaps traders are pricing in roughly a one-third chance of a Fed hike next week, and almost 90% odds of one by July, after unexpected increases by the central banks of Canada and Australia this week. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index rose 168 points to 32,434, the Shanghai Index dipped -2 points to 3,228, and the Hang Seng Index gained 14 points to 19,404. In Europe, the German DAX is up 86 points to 16,036, while the FTSE 100 is flat at 7,563.

Market Closing Prices Yesterday

·     The S&P 500 Index edged higher 4.93 points, or 0.11%, to 4,298.86.

·     The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 43.17 points, or 0.13%, to 33,876.78.

·     The Nasdaq Composite gained 20.62 points, or 0.16%, to 13,259.14.

·     The Russell 2000 Index declined -15.07 points, or 0.80% to 1,865.71.

Economic Calendar for Today

·     1:00 PM ET                   US Treasury sells $40B in 3-year notes.

·     2:00 PM ET                   Federal budget for May

Earnings Calendar:

·     Earnings After the Close: ORCL STRM ZDGE

Other Key Events:

·     Goldman Sachs 44th Annual Global Healthcare Conference, 6/12-6/15, in CA

·     Oppenheimer 2023 Software Bus Tour, 6/12-6/14, in San Francisco, CA

·     RothMKM Digital Advertising Summit (virtual), 6/12-6/15

Sector News Breakdown

Consumer

·     Carnival (CCL) upgraded Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan and raised tgt to $16 from $11 after mgmt meetings saying sees a “bullish tone” on current trends and 1H24 bookings.

·     NIO (NIO) will cut prices for all vehicle models by 30,000 Renminbi ($4,201) starting Monday, the Chinese electric vehicle maker said on its Weibo account. The price reduction includes the company’s brand-new ES6 and ES8 vehicles, for which prices start from 338,000 Renminbi and 498,000 Renminbi, respectively, before the discount.

·     TreeHouse Foods (THS) mentioned positively in Barron’s saying the company looks far different than it did 10 months ago, thanks to management changes and asset sales. One major contributor to the company’s bolstered balance sheet was the sale of its meal-prep unit to a private equity firm for 14 times Ebitda.

Energy, Industrials and Materials

·     Axon Enterprise Inc. (AXON) said a federal judge paused for 60 days the security product company’s lawsuit challenging the constitutionality of the FTC’s use of an in-house judge.

·     NET Power (NPWR) mentioned positively in Barron’s saying it stands out as a unique clean-energy company through its natural gas power plant, which “makes it easy to capture carbon dioxide released by the burning of natural gas.”

Financials

·     Nasdaq Inc. (NDAQ) agreed to buy software company Adenza for $10.5 billion in cash and stock from Thoma Bravo. The terms of the deal include $5.75 billion in cash and 85.6 million shares of Nasdaq common stock. https://tinyurl.com/4sxy7wxy

·     Artisan Partners Asset Management Inc. (APAM) preliminary assets under management as of May 31, 2023, totaled $136.4 billion. Artisan Funds and Artisan Global Funds accounted for $65.9 billion of total firm AUM, while separate accounts and other AUM accounted for $70.5 billion.

·     American Homes 4 Rent (AMH) files mixed-securities shelf.

·     KeyCorp (KEY) files automatic mixed securities shelf.

·     Lemonade (LMND) files to sell 3.35M shares of common stock for holders.

·     US bank deposits rose by $46.6b in the week ended May 31. Bank credit at all U.S. commercial banks rise to $17.33 trln in week ending May 31, vs $17.28 trln in prior week, not seasonally adjusted. Loans and leases at all U.S. commercial banks rise to $12.14 trln in week ending May 31, vs $12.10 trln in prior week, not seasonally adjusted.

Healthcare

·     Novartis (NVS) to buy Chinook (KDNY) for up to $3.5 bln in boost to late-stage pipeline Under the agreement, Chinook shareholders would receive $3.2 billion, or $40 per share in cash, which represents a premium of 66.7% to Friday’s closing price. https://tinyurl.com/bdfdwasj

·     BioNTech (BNTX) is poised to face its first German court hearing over a lawsuit seeking damages for alleged side effects of its COVID-19 vaccine, media outlets reported on Sunday.

·     23andMe Holding (ME) said CEO Anne Wojcicki approves a reduction of about 9% of its entire workforce to restructure and reduce its operating costs; expects the change, when fully implemented, to reduce expenses by about $12.8Mm.

·     llumina (ILMN) CEO Francis DeSouza resigns, just weeks after he survived an activist investor’s campaign to remove him from the DNA sequencing giant’s board.

·     Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) announced updated interim results from the Phase 1 portion of the ongoing Phase 1/2 study of NTLA-2002. NTLA-2002 is an in vivo, systemically administered CRISPR candidate being developed as a single-dose treatment for hereditary angioedema.

Technology, Media & Telecom

·     Broadcom (AVGO) set to win EU nod for $61 bln VMware (VMW) deal – Reuters reports.

·     Oracle (ORCL) to report earnings after the close tonight.

·     German Finance Minister Christian Lindner is opposed to higher subsidies for Intel’s (INTC) new plant in the country’s east, the Financial Times reports.