Early Look

Tuesday, June 13, 2023

Futures	Up/Down	%	Last
Dow	5.00	0.01%	34,394
S&P 500	4.25	0.10%	4,392
Nasdaq	42.50	0.28%	15.029

 

 

S&P futures coming into the day riding a 3-day win streak and the Nasdaq 100 into the day up 35% YTD as technology, communications sectors have pushed major averages higher on the year. The S&P 500 jumped to the highest in 13 months on Monday as traders hoped the Federal Reserve will skip hiking rates when the central bank decides on policy Wednesday. Markets will be tested early Tuesday morning when May consumer prices (CPI) inflation data is released at 8:30 AM ET. Estimate for CPI headline M/M to rise +0.2% (vs. prior month +0.4%) and on a Y/Y basis to rise +4.1% (prior month rose +4.9%). On a core basis, ex: food & energy for CPI M/M est. to rise +0.4% (prior +0.4%) and Y/Y to rise +5.3% (prior +5.5%). Winning streaks continued as Tesla (TSLA) has now climbed for 12 straight trading sessions, a record for the electric car maker, while ROKU rose an 11^th straight day in streaming and airline Delta (DAL) made it a 12^th straight daily advance. Apple (AAPL) rose +1.6% to close at record high of $183.79. Over the last month or so, the market action has clearly been more about liquidity, flows, FOMO, and squeezes, with fundamentals and valuations are seen as less important (for now). In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index surged 584 points or 1.8% to 33,018, the Shanghai Index gained 4 points to 3,233, and the Hang Seng Index climbed 117 points to 19,521. In Europe, the German DAX is up 32 points to 16,129, while the FTSE 100 is flat at 7, 568.

 

Economic Calendar for Today

·     6:00 AM ET                  NFIB Small Business Optimism for May

·     7:45 AM ET                  ICSC Weekly Retail Sales

·     8:30 AM ET                  Consumer Price Index (CPI) M/M for May…est. +0.2%

·     8:30 AM ET                  Consumer Price Index (CPI) Y/Y for May…est. +4.1%

·     8:30 AM ET                  CPI Ex: Food & Energy M/M for May…est. +0.4%

·     8:30 AM ET                  CPI Ex: Food & Energy Y/Y for May…est. +5.3%

·     8:55 AM ET                  Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales

·     10:00 AM ET                FOMC begins 2-day policy meeting (results 6/14)

·     11:00 AM ET                Cleveland Fed CPI for May

·     1:00 PM ET                   US Treasury to sell $21B in 30-year notes.

·     4:30 PM ET                   API Weekly Inventory Data

 

Earnings Calendar:

·     Earnings After the Close: ITI MIND MMMB

 

Other Key Events:

·     Deutsche Bank Global Auto Industry Conference, 6/13-6/15, in New York

·     Goldman Sachs 44th Annual Global Healthcare Conference, 6/12-6/15, in CA

·     Goldman Sachs European Financials Conference, 6/13-6/15, in Paris

·     Oppenheimer 2023 Software Bus Tour, 6/12-6/14, in San Francisco, CA

·     Oppenheimer 23rd Annual Consumer Growth & E-Commerce Conference, 6/13-6/14 (virtual)

·     RBC Capital Financial Technology Conference, 6/13

·     RothMKM Digital Advertising Summit (virtual), 6/12-6/15

 

Market Closing Prices Yesterday

·     The S&P 500 Index jumped 40.07 points, or 0.93%, to 4,338.93.

·     The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 189.55 points, or 0.56%, to 34,066.33.

·     The Nasdaq Composite surged 202.78 points, or 1.53%, to 13,461.92.

·     The Russell 2000 Index advanced 7.51 points, or 0.40% to 1,873.21.

 

 

Macro	Up/Down	Last
Nymex	1.34	68.46
Brent	1.48	73.32
Gold	8.80	1,978.40
EUR/USD	0.0038	1.0794
JPY/USD	-0.06	139.54
10-Year Note	-0.029	3.736%

 

 

Sector News Breakdown

Consumer

·     Bunge (BG) and Glencore (GLNCY) backed Viterra announced an $18 billion deal to merge, creating one of the world’s largest agriculture trading firms. Viterra holders to also get about $2.0b in cash, representing a total consideration mix of about 75% BG stock and 25% cash. https://tinyurl.com/439y8t75

·     Chegg (CHGG) said to eliminate 80 employees, about 4% of its workforce; estimates that it will incur charges of about $5M-$6M in connection with these actions.

·     Home Depot (HD) reaffirms fiscal 2023 guidance; still sees comparable sales -2% to -5%, estimate -3.75%; still sees sales -2% to -5%, and still sees operating margin 14%-14.3%, estimate 14.2%.

·     Manchester United (MANU) shares jumped 20% in premarket trade following a report from Qatar’s Al-Watan that Qatar’s Sheikh Jassim bin Hamad al-Thani will soon be announced as the preferred bidder. He has been battling Jim Ratcliffe for control of the club after the controlling Glazer family said they would consider selling. https://tinyurl.com/ys33psup

 

Energy, Industrials and Materials

·     Duke Energy (DUK) said it has reached an agreement to sell its unregulated utility scale Commercial Renewables business to Brookfield Renewable at an enterprise value of approximately $2.8 billion.

·     Casella Waste Systems, Inc. (CWST) to acquire the assets of Consolidated Waste Services, LLC for about $219 mln in cash.

·     Methode Electronics (MEI) guided FY24 EPS $1.55 -$1.75 below consensus $2.58 and guided FY24 revs $1.15B- $1.2B vs. est. $1.21B citing additional costs to support new program launches and the impact from program roll offs.

 

Financials

·     Chubb (CB) announces $5B share buyback.

·     AllianceBernstein L.P. (AB) preliminary assets under management decreased to $670 billion during May 2023 from $676 billion at the end of April. Modest firmwide net inflows were offset by market depreciation, resulting in a 1% AUM decrease during May.

·     Invesco Ltd. (IVZ) preliminary month-end assets under management (AUM) of $1,487.6 billion, an increase of 0.2% versus the previous month-end. The firm experienced net long-term outflows of $2.2 billion in the month. Non-management fee earning net inflows were $2.3 billion and money market net inflows were $9.1 billion.

·     Essent Group (ESNT) and Radian Group (RDN) both to Market Perform from Outperform with unchanged price targets of $50 and $27.50, respectively at KBW Inc. saying despite market concerns about an impending recession, the mortgage insurers have been the best-performing subsector in the residential mortgage industry in 2023.

 

Technology, Media & Telecom

·     Oracle Corp. (ORCL) 4Q adj EPS $1.67 vs. est. $1.58; Q4 revs $13.8B vs. est. $13.72B; Q4 adj op margin 44% vs. est. 44.8%; Q4 cloud services & license support revs rise 23% y/y to $9.37B and Q4 adj. operating income $6.16B vs. est. $6.12B; firm said our two strategic cloud businesses are getting bigger; shares +0.7%.

·     Apple (AAPL) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS.

·     Nano Dimension (NNDM) reaffirms $18 per share all-cash tender offer for Stratasys (SSYS) shareholders to receive near-term value by tendering their shares.

·     Weibo (WB) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS.