Early Look

Thursday, June 15, 2023

Futures	Up/Down	%	Last
Dow	-77.00	0.22%	34,207
S&P 500	-17.00	0.38%	4,401
Nasdaq	-103.50	0.68%	15,095

 

 

After a strong rally late Wednesday following a pullback post the FOMC announcement, stocks are retreating to start the day, with Nasdaq futures down over -100 points (will the dip be bought again?) Both stocks and bonds dropped late afternoon Wednesday after the Fed kept rates unchanged as expected, but indicated that rates would rise possibly 50-bps more by the end of the year in a surprise to markets. Stocks moved lower initially as rate cut expectations for the remainder of 2023 were all but eliminated after the commentary, but as has been the case throughout the year, the market dip was bought as the S&P 500 finished little changed on the day. Assets bounced back as Powell’s comments in his press conference turned out to be less hawkish than expected. Treasuries were mixed, the dollar and crude oil fell and Bitcoin and Ethereum declined. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index fell -16 points to 33,485, the Shanghai Index rose 23 points to 3,252, and the Hang Seng Index jumped 420 points to 19,828. In Europe, the German DAX is down -84 points to 16,226, while the FTSE 100 is up 10 points to 7,613. The Fed’s hawkish comments also sent the dollar higher for first time in three days and treasury yields climbed on prospects of further rate hikes. A heavy dose of economic data this morning including weekly jobless claims, NY Manufacturing, Retail Sales, Import Prices and Industrial Production.

 

Economic Calendar for Today

·        8:30 AM ET                  Weekly Jobless Claims

·      8:30 AM ET                  Continuing Claims

·      8:30 AM ET                  Empire Manufacturing for June

·      8:30 AM ET                  Import Prices M/M for May

·      8:30 AM ET                  Export Prices M/M for May

·      8:30 AM ET                  Philly Fed Business Index for May

·      8:30 AM ET                  Retail Sales M/M for May

·      8:30 AM ET                  Retail Sales – Less Autos M/M for May

·      9:15 AM ET                  Industrial Production M/M for May

·      9:15 AM ET                  Capacity Utilization for May

·      10:00 AM ET                Business inventories M/M for April

·      10:30 AM ET                Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data

·      4:00 PM ET                   Net Long-term TIC Flows for April

 

Earnings Calendar:

·      Earnings Before the Open: KR JBL

·      Earnings After the Close: ADBE

 

Other Key Events:

·      Deutsche Bank Global Auto Industry Conference, 6-13/6/15, in New York

·      Goldman Sachs 44th Annual Global Healthcare Conference, 6/12-6/15, in CA

·      Goldman Sachs European Financials Conference, 6/13-6/15, in Paris

·      Oppenheimer Annual Semiconductor Bus Tour, 6/14-6/15 – Silicon Valley

·      RBC Capital Global Mining & Materials Conference, 6/15-6/16, in New York

·      RothMKM Digital Advertising Summit (virtual), 6/12-6/15

·      Sidoti Small-Cap Conference (virtual), 6/14-6/15

 

Market Closing Prices Yesterday

·     The S&P 500 Index edged higher 3.58 points, or 0.08%, to 4,372.59.

·     The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -232.79 points, or 0.68%, to 33,979.33.

·     The Nasdaq Composite gained 53.16 points, or 0.39%, to 13,626.48.

·     The Russell 2000 Index declined -22.24 points, or 1.17% to 1,874.10.

 

 

Macro	Up/Down	Last
Nymex	0.65	68.92
Brent	0.72	73.92
Gold	-7.30	1,935.00
EUR/USD	0.001	1.084
JPY/USD	1.08	141.17
10-Year Note	+0.033	3.823%

 

 

World News

·     China’s central bank cut interest rates on one-year loans, lifting hope for more policy stimulus to come as the latest data pointed to a darkening economic picture. Cuts 1Y MLF rate 10bps to 2.65%, injects 237b yuan at new rate, net 37b yuan injection.

·     The Fed held its key lending rate steady last yesterday, snapping a run of ten consecutive increases, but cautioned that elevated levels of inflation, a resilient job market fading recession risk would likely elicit at least two more rate hikes between now and the end of the year.

·     The bull-bear spread in the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) weekly survey was 22.5 vs 20.2 last week. Bulls rise to 45.2% from 44.5%, Neutrals rise to 32.1% from 31.2%, Bears fall to 22.7% from 24.3%.

 

Sector News Breakdown

Consumer

·     Lennar Corp. (LEN) Q2 adj EPS $2.94 vs, est. $2.31; Q2 revs fell -4.3% y/y to $8.0B vs. est. $7.29B; Q2 net new orders rose +0.5% y/y to 17,885 above views; Q2 gross margin on Home Sales 22.5% vs. 29.5% y/y; backlog down -29% y/y to 20,214; sees 3q new orders 18K-19K vs. est. 16K; sees FY deliveries 68K-70K, up from prior 62K-66K.

·     AutoZone Inc (AZO) board authorized repurchase of an additional $2.0 bln of company’s common stock in connection with its ongoing share repurchase program.

·     Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Stifel, predicting delivery sales to stabilize over the next 12 months, while carryout sales grow to new record highs.

·     Kohl’s (KSS) upgraded to Outperform as it expects new home decor & gifting product, improved fashion execution, a simplified promotional strategy, and pragmatic store layout revisions to drive healthier and more consistent traffic and faster inventory turns.

·     International Game Technology Plc (IGT) announced today it successfully launched a compelling new, ten-game set for Alberta Gaming, Liquor & Cannabis.

·     TrueCar (TRUE) said it will cut about 102 jobs, or 24% of its workforce, and named Jantoon Reigersman as CEO to replace Michael Darrow.

·     Target (TGT) boosts qtrly div to $1.10 from $1.08.

 

Energy, Industrials and Materials

·     AMMO Inc. (POWW) shares rose after reported user growth of 38,000 people per month and marketplace revenue of $64.1 million.

·     Patterson-UTI Energy (PTEN) and NexTier Oilfield Solutions (NEX) said Thursday they have agreed to a merger in an all-stock deal with an enterprise value of ~$5.4B. Under the deal terms, NexTier (NEX) shareholders will receive 0.752 Patterson-UTI (PTEN) share for each NexTier share owned. Patterson-UTI (PTEN) shareholders will own ~55% of the combined company, and NexTier (NEX) shareholders will own the rest.

·     Safran (SAFRY) is close to a $1.8 billion acquisition of a unit of Raytheon Technologies (RTX) that makes flight controls for aircraft and missiles, Reuters reported, citing a person familiar with the matter.

 

Financials

·     Bitcoin and Ether tumbled late Wednesday afternoon amid ongoing concerns about Central bank monetary policy in the months ahead and other macroeconomic uncertainties.

·     Capital One Financial (COF) said May monthly charge-offs were 4.5% vs. 2.4% y/y and delinquencies 3.64% vs. 2.22% y/y.

·     Deutsche Bank (DB) CFO said he expects trading revenue to decline this quarter as interest rates near their peak and the economy is likely to enter a recession; said revenue from fixed income trading will drop 15% to 20% vs. a year earlier, when it rose more than 30%.

·     Aspen Insurance (AHL) files $600M mixed securities shelf.

·     JPMorgan (JPM) monthly May Charge-offs 1.6% and delinquencies 0.85%.

·     SoFi Technologies (SOFI) downgraded to Perform from Outperform at Oppenheimer citing the stock’s valuation now seen capturing its positive outlook.

 

Healthcare

·     Coherus Biosciences Inc (CHRS) on June 6, received a notice letter from AbbVie (ABBV) alleging the co breached its settlement and license agreement with AbbVie. Coherus sent response letter on June 11 denying allegation in full, requesting AbbVie provide more info about allegation.

·     Editas Medicine (EDIT) announces $125m offering of common stock.

·     Eloxx Pharmaceuticals (ELOX) announces final data assessment from phase 2 combination clinical trial of ELX-02 in Class 1 Cystic Fibrosis (CF) Patients. ELX-02 trial results demonstrated clinically relevant improvement in percent predicted forced expiratory volume (ppFEV1) based on final data assessment; initial topline results were previously reported in September 2022.