Early Look

Friday, June 20, 2025

U.S. are slightly lower, but well off the overnight lows (Spuz -0.2% at 6,022, off the 5,969.50 lows) as headlines out of the Middle East calm down a bit. U.S. President Donald Trump signaled he would give diplomacy a chance before deciding whether to strike Iran, dialing back on recent comments that suggested military action could be imminent. In oil futures, global benchmark Brent slumped after Trump’s comments eased fears about a rapid attack from the U.S., thought WTI crude prices edge higher. Gold prices on signs of peace, down over -1% and poised for worst week in a month as US rate cut expectations by the Fed ease after Wednesdays FOMC comments (on track for -2.2% on week). In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index fell -85 points to 38,403, the Shanghai Index fell -2 points to 3,359, and the Hang Seng Index rose 292 points to 23,540. In Europe, the German DAX is up over 200 points to 23,260, while the FTSE 100 gains 41 points to 8,833. For today, Investors are set for $6.5 trillion of notional US options expiring on Friday, in a ‘triple witching’ event that’s seen as one of the largest expiries on record, the simultaneous expiration of index futures, index options, stock futures, and stock options along with 2Q25 rebalance Friday for several major market indexes. As for Wednesday, a rally in stocks and bonds driven by the Federal Reserve’s forecast for two rate cuts for 2025 waned after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the monetary policy committee had little conviction on the path forward for interest rates and said he expects a meaningful pickup in inflation in the coming months. The dollar reversed losses. The S&P 500 closed a little changed after the FOMC voted unanimously to hold the rates, downgrading their estimates for economic growth this year while lifting their forecasts for unemployment and inflation.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -44.14 points, or 0.10%, to 42,171.66
• The Nasdaq Composite gained 25.18 points, or 0.13%, to 19,546.27
• The Russell 2000 Index advanced 11.00 points, or 0.52%, to 2,112.96

• 10:00 AM ET                Leading Index Change M/M for May…est. (-0.1%)
• 1:00 PM ET                   Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

• Paris International Air Show 2025, 6/16-6/22, in Paris

• This week’s NAAIM Exposure Index reading increased to 94.09, rising from last week’s 82.66 – highest since the 99.24 reading on 12/11 – recent trough from 4-17 of 35.16 – Last Quarter Average (Q1) of 72.50.
• In April, foreigners sold a net $40.8 billion of U.S. notes and bonds that had more than one year to maturity. The selling can be attributed to private foreign investors who sold a net $46.848 billion. A slice of this selling was offset by foreign global central banks who bought a net $6.042 billion.

• McDonalds (MCD) fell for a 4th straight session on Wednesday, down -0.9% and posting only two positive days in June out of 13 trading days (to lowest levels since early February).
• Mondelez (MDLZ) was upgraded to overweight at Wells Fargo, saying they see its bull case for the Oreo-cookies maker becoming more tangible.
• Smith & Wesson (SWBI) Q4 adj EPS $0.20 vs est. $0.23, adj EBITDA $24.1Mm vs est. $26.19Mm on sales $140.8Mm vs est. $152.41Mm; said currently expect demand for firearms in fiscal 2026 to be similar to what we saw in fiscal 2025 remaining subject to economic headwinds such as inflation and tariffs.
• Stellantis (STLA) is considering a possible sale of its struggling luxury Maserati unit, among other options, Reuters reported citing two sources with knowledge of the matter said, as the automaker seeks to overhaul its sprawling portfolio of 14 brands.
• Tesla (TSLA) shares edge higher early, two days before the company’s expected launch of its robotaxi service. Democratic lawmakers in Texas have called for Tesla to delay the launch. Two state senators and five state representatives signed a letter addressed to Tesla’s director of field quality. They asked the EV company to delay the robotaxi launch until Sept. 1, when a new self-driving safety law is set to take effect in Texas.

• Gold prices fell on Friday and were poised for their worst weekly performance in more than a month after the Federal Reserve tempered expectations for rate cuts and on a temporary easing of concerns about an imminent U.S. attack on Iran.

• HIVE Digital Technologies (HIVE) announces it has surpassed 11 Exahash per second of global Bitcoin mining hashrate, achieving an operational hashrate of 11.4 EH/s. This milestone marks the early and successful completion of Phase 1 of HIVE’s Yguazu site in Paraguay.

• Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (MDGL) announced that the Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP) of the European Medicines Agency (EMA) has adopted a positive opinion recommending approval of resmetirom (Rezdiffra) for the treatment of adults with noncirrhotic MASH with moderate to advanced liver fibrosis. The European Commission decision is anticipated in August.

• ITT Corp. (ITT) announced that business leaders from the company will present VIDAR, a compact motor that combines embedded variable speed intelligence with advanced energy efficiency and reliability for industrial pumps and fans, at two events.
• SoftBank Group (SFTBY) founder Masayoshi Son is envisaging setting up a $1 trillion industrial complex in Arizona, seeking to team up with Taiwan Semi (TSM) that will build robots and artificial intelligence, Bloomberg News reported on Friday, citing people familiar with the matter.