Early Look

Tuesday, June 25, 2024

U.S. futures are looking higher, with chips and tech stocks rebounding early as the AI chipmaker NVDA looks to be finding its footing after a three-day slide that wiped off hundreds of billions from its market valuation after profit taking as shares fell -6.7% on Monday (yet still up 138% YTD). The stock has fallen almost 13% from a recent peak, coming under pressure in recent days. Stock markets swooned in the final 30-minutes of trading on Monday, closing on lows, but are bouncing this morning ahead of several catalyst this week. We get the Fed bank stress tests Wednesday after the close, then Q1-final GDP data Thursday morning at 8:30 AM followed by the Trump/Biden Presidential debate on Thursday night, and then the potentially pivotal PCE/core PCE inflation data on Friday morning (the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge). Spread in between are several Fed speakers that have echoed the same thing time and time again, recent inflation data was positive and good sign, data will determine if rate cuts coming, still trying to get to 2% inflation. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index jumped 368 points to 39,173, the Shanghai Index fell -13 points to 2,950, and the Hang Seng Index rose 45 points to 18,072. In Europe, the German DAX tumbles -196 points to 18,128, while the FTSE 100 is down -13 points to 8,267. Oil prices are slightly down on the day, but still hovering around the highest level in almost 2 months. Bitcoin prices rebound 3% back above $61,000 after a late roll yesterday sent prices down -8% below $59K.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 260.54 points, or 0.67%, to 39,410.87.
• The Nasdaq Composite tumbled -192.54 points, or 1.09%, to 17,496.82.
• The Russell 2000 Index advanced 8.78 points, or 0.43% to 2,030.81.

• 8:30 AM ET                  National Activity Index for May
• 8:55 AM ET                  Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
• 9:00 AM ET                  Monthly Home Prices M/m for April
• 9:00 AM ET S&P CaseShiller 20-city index for April
• 10:00 AM ET                Consumer Confidence M/M for June…est. 100.0
• 10:00 AM ET                Richmond Fed Index M/M for June…prior 0
• 12:00 PM ET                Fed’s Cook Speaks at Economic Club of New York
• 1:00 PM ET U.S. Treasury to sell 2-yr notes.
• 2:15 PM ET                   Fed’s Bowman Gives Recorded Opening Remarks
• 4:30 PM ET API Weekly Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: PRGS FDX WOR

• Deutsche Bank Private Software Company Summit, 6/25, in New York
• Goldman Sachs European Business Services, Transport & Leisure Conference, 6/24-6/26, in London
• Goldman Sachs China Healthcare Corporate Day 2024, 6/24-6/26 (virtual)
• Jefferies Shipping 1×1 Summit, 6/25-6/26, in New York
• Northland Growth Virtual Conference 2024, 6/25 (virtual)
• Roth MKM 10th Annual ROTH London Conference, 6/25-6/27, in London

• Gap Stores (GPS) upgraded to Buy from Hold at TD Cowen.
• Penn Entertainment (PENN) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Raymond James.
• Pool Corp (POOL) lowered its annual earnings guidance range lowered to $11.04-$11.44 from previous range of $13.19- $14.19 (est. $13.15) and guided Q2 EPS in range of $4.85-$4.95 vs. est. $5.85; said YTD net sales, although sequentially better than Q1 24, are trending down around 6.5%; fy24 net sales now expected to be in a similar range. (shares of other swimming pool names may be weak LESL, PNR, SWIM).
• Uber (UBER) has begun locking New York City drivers out of its app during periods of low demand to fight a minimum wage rule and Lyft (LYFT) is now threatening to do the same, Bloomberg reports. Some drivers now say their wages have fallen as much as 50%. https://tinyurl.com/muwj3u2e
• XPeng (XPEV) upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Citigroup.

• C.H. Robinson (CHRW) upgraded to Outperform from In Line at Evercore ISI and raised tgt to $99 from $82.
• Deutsche Lufthansa (DLAKY) said it will raise its ticket prices as it implements a surcharge to help cover what it said were steadily rising environmental regulation costs.
• Mosaic (MOS) April-May potash sales revenue $371M vs. $672M last year; said potash sales volume and MOP prices at the mine are expected to be in the range 2.2-2.4M tonnes, and $210-$250 per tonne, respectively.
• SolarEdge Technologies, Inc. (SEDG) announces proposed private offering of $300M of convertible senior notes; notes maturity set for July 1, 2029; shares tumble 15% overnight.

• Marqeta (MQ) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Wells Fargo with an unchanged price target of $7.

• Merck KGaA (MKKGY) shares drop after the company said it discontinued a late-stage trial for a cancer drug; they canceled the Phase 3 trial of xevinapant after an independent committee found that the drug was unlikely to achieve its main goal of extending patients’ lives without the cancer worsening.
• Novo Nordisk’s (NVO) Wegovy has been approved for sale in China, The Financial Times reports. It is not yet known when the product will launch, the pricing of the drug, or the volume of the product that will be supplied to the region.
• ResMed (RMD) downgraded to Perform from Outperform at Oppenheimer.

• DoubleVerify (DV) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley and cut tgt to $21 from $40.
• Oracle (ORCL) said a ban on TikTok in the U.S. could hurt revenue and profit. Oracle provides cloud infrastructure for TikTok, which has over 120 million users in the U.S. – CNBC.
• Sea Ltd. (SE) was downgraded to Neutral from Overweight and cut tgt to $78 from $84 noting its share price has gained 116% from its lows in Jan-24 (NASDAQ: +19%) mainly driven by positive earnings revisions within ecommerce. Also says incremental increases in competition are now likely to cap positive earnings revisions and share price near-term.
• Wolfspeed Inc (WOLF) said expects temporary impact from equipment incident at Durham 150mm device fab; targeted Q4 revs from continuing operations is unchanged at $185M-$215M; potential negative impact to fiscal Q1 2025 rev ~$20M; forecasts Q4 non-Gaap net loss from continuing operations to be in a range of $122M-$105M.