Early Look

Friday, June 27, 2025

U.S. futures are on track for another strong open, adding to their weekly advance after President Donald Trump announced Thursday that the United States and China have formally signed a trade agreement, bringing an end to months of negotiations. The deal cements the informal understanding reached earlier during talks in Geneva, marking a significant step in stabilizing trade relations between the two countries. The move is a positive sign for trade deals in general as the July 9^th trade deadline approaches. So far, Trump has firmed up a trade deal with the United Kingdom. In Canada, Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government threatened to hike tariffs by late July on US imports of steel and aluminum. The European Union has also vowed to retaliate if the US sticks with its baseline 10% tariffs, according to a report in Bloomberg. Trump has threatened tariffs of up to 50% on EU imports. Time will tell what materializes but for the time being the trade news with China is a welcomed step. This morning, U.S. markets get another look at inflation data with the May Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, the Fed’s favored inflation reading. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index jumped 566 points to move back above the 40,000 level, settling at 40,150, the Shanghai Index fell -24 points to 3,42, and the Hang Seng Index slipped -41 points to 24,284. In Europe, the German DAX is surging 188 points to 23,841, while the FTSE 100 rises 45 points to 8,780. Stocks are poised to resume the week’s march higher as markets embrace upbeat news after days of Mideast tensions and while the S&P 500 (SPX) closed on Thursday just a few points shy of setting a new all-time high, buoyed by rising expectations that the Fed will lower interest rates as early as July. Path of least resistance has remained up, up and away for two months now since the early April reseat, lifted by a tech heavy based run behind AI growth expectations which has pushed the Nasdaq 100 to all-time highs this week.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 404.41 points, or 0.94%, to 43,386.84
• The Nasdaq Composite gained 194.36 points, or 0.97%, to 20,167.91
• The Russell 2000 Index advanced 35.92 points, or 1.68% to 2,172.11

• 8:30 AM ET                  Personal Spending M/M for May
• 8:30 AM ET PCE Price Index (PCE) headline M/M for May
• 8:30 AM ET PCE Price Index (PCE) headline Y/Y for May
• 8:30 AM ET                  Core PCE Price Index (PCE) M/M for May
• 8:30 AM ET                  Core PCE Price Index (PCE) Y/Y for May
• 10:00 AM ET                University of Michigan Sentiment, June-final
• 10:00 AM ET                University of Michigan 1-yr and 5-yr inflation expectations, June-final
• 1:00 PM ET                   Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

• US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick indicated the US has plans to reach agreements with 10 major trading partners.
• China’s industrial profits plunge 9.1%, steepest fall in seven months – Cumulative profits at major industrial firms fell 1.1% in the first five months of 2025, compared to a year earlier. China’s exports this year have held up despite the erratic U.S. tariff policy, thanks to a surge in shipments to Southeast Asia and European Union countries – CNBC

• American Outdoors (AOUT) Q4 adj EPS $0.13 vs est. ($0.11), adj EBITDA $3.5Mm vs est. $0.621Mm on sales $61.942Mm vs est. $48.46Mm. says Given this uncertainty, combined with our retailers choosing to accelerate purchases of approximately $8M to $10M in orders originally planned for fiscal 2026, we are suspending our previously issued fiscal 2026 net sales guidance
• Li Auto (LI) updated its delivery outlook for the second quarter of 2025. The Company now expects to deliver approximately 108,000 vehicles in the second quarter of 2025, compared to its previously issued delivery outlook of between 123,000 and 128,000 vehicles. The adjustment reflects the temporary impact of the Company’s sales system upgrade to support its long-term growth.
• Lululemon Athletica Inc (LULU) files for mixed shelf; size not disclosed.
• Uber (UBER) and Lyft (LYFT) both downgraded to Hold from Buy at Canaccord.
• Unilever (UL) is paying $1.5B to buy men’s personal care brand Dr Squatch from private-equity firm Summit Partners, the Financial Times reported.

• TotalEnergies (TTE) has signed an agreement to acquire the 25% interest held by Moeve in Block 53, offshore Suriname, joining APA and Petronas as partner in this license.

• W. R. Berkley (WRB) downgraded to Hold from Buy at TD Cowen

• Bausch + Lomb (BLCO) announces closing of upsized €675M senior secured notes offering and partial credit agreement refinancing, including upsized $2.325B term loan facility; said proceeds used to repay outstanding borrowings.
• Bristol Myers (BMY) said the FDA has approved label updates for both of its CAR T cell therapies, Breyanzi for the treatment of large B cell lymphoma and other lymphomas and Abecma for the treatment of multiple myeloma.
• CorMedix (CRMD) announces $85M common stock offering.
• Kymera Therapeutics (KYMR) 5.043M share Spot Secondary priced at $44.00

• Concentric (CNXC) Q2 adj EPS $2.70 vs est. $2.75, adj EBITDA $357.3Mm vs est. $378.3Mm on revs $2.42B vs est. $2.381B; guides Q3 revs $2.445-2.47B vs est. $2.381B, adj op Inc $318-328Mm vs est. $330.55Mm and adj EPS $2.80-2.91 vs est. $2.90; sees FY revs $9.72-9.815B vs est. $9.613B, adj op Inc $1.3-1.32B vs est. $1.197B and adj EPS $11.53-11.76 vs est. $11.54.
• DNOW Inc. (DNOW) and MRC Global (MRC) to combine in all-stock transaction creating a premier energy and industrial solutions provider as DNOW to buy MRC Global in $1.5B all-stock deal
• Alphabet (GOOGL) was downgrade to Neutral, lower PT to $172 (from $213) and Amazon (AMZN) was upgraded to Outperform at BNP Paribas Exane.
• DeepSeek’s R2 model faces delays due to a shortage of Nvidia (NVDA) server chips in China, exacerbated by the U.S.’ ban of Nvidia’s H20 chips – The Information reports.
• Trade Desk (TTD) upgraded to Outperform from In Line at Evercore ISI with an unchanged price target of $90 saying recent channel checks have indicated that online advertising demand sentiment has “clearly improved” since May, though second half of 2025 uncertainty remains significant.