Early Look

Friday, March 4, 2022

Futures	Up/Down	%	Last
Dow	-270.00	0.80%	33,468
S&P 500	-35.25	0.81%	4,324
Nasdaq	-108.50	0.77%	13,922

 

 

U.S. futures are lower by about -0.8% after reports Russian forces attacked Europe’s largest nuclear power plant overnight, in Ukraine, raising fears of a nuclear disaster – but according to latest reports, the fire at the nuclear plant is reportedly extinguished, though Russia has taken control of the facility. Havens including sovereign bonds jumped on the reports, with the 10-year yield falling below 1.80%, gold rising +0.7% to 1,950 an ounce and the dollar gaining. Oil soared adding to already soaring metal and grain costs as Russia’s resources are shunned by the world amid sanctions. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index dropped -2.2% to 25,985, the Shanghai Index fell about 1% to 3,447, and the Hang Seng Index declined -2.5% or 560 points to 21,905. In Europe, the German DAX is tumbling -3.4% or nearly 500-points to 13,225, while the FTSE 100 plunges -3% to 7,020. The Euro falls more than 3% vs Swiss franc this week, set for biggest weekly drop since January 2015; the Euro drops -0.78% against the US dollar below 1.10. Wall Street struggled for direction for much of Thursday’s session as the Ukraine crisis kept investors on edge, until sliding late afternoon as all averages ended lower. The United States on Thursday imposed fresh sanctions against Russian oligarchs, including on those active in the oil and real estate sectors. Between all the headlines on Ukraine this week, the 2-day Powell testimony, and volatile stocks, bonds, and currencies – not much mention about today’s non-farm payroll report for February at 8:30 AM. Estimates are for Nonfarm payrolls +400K jobs, private +378K, manufacturing +23K, and the unemployment rate to dip to 3.9% and avg hourly earnings to rise +0.5%.

 

Market Closing Prices Yesterday

·     The S&P 500 Index dropped -23.02 points, or 0.52%, to 4,363.52

·     The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -96.86 points, or 0.29%, to 33,794.49

·     The Nasdaq Composite slumped -214.07 points, or 1.56%, to 13,537.94

·     The Russell 2000 Index declined -26.46 points, or 1.29% to 2,032.41

 

Economic Calendar for Today

·     8:30 AM ET        Nonfarm Payrolls for February…est. 400K

·     8:30 AM ET         Private Payrolls for February…est. 378K

·     8:30 AM ET         Manufacturing Payrolls, for February…est. 23K

·     8:30 AM ET         Unemployment Rate for Feb…est. 3.9%

·     8:30 AM ET         Average Hourly Earnings m/m for February…est. +0.5%

·     1:00 PM EST       Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

 

 

Macro	Up/Down	Last
Nymex	2.48	110.15
Brent	2.23	112.69
Gold	11.00	1,947.00
EUR/USD	-0.0085	1.0981
JPY/USD	-0.11	115.35
10-Year Note	-0.064	1.78%

 

 

Sector News Breakdown

Consumer

·     Costco (COST) 2Q EPS $2.92 vs est. $2.74 on revs $50.94B vs est. $50.4B, total company comps +14.4%, e-comm comps +12.5%, adj comps +11.1%

·     Funko (FNKO) Q4 adj EPS $0.38 vs. est. $0.24; Q4 revs rose 48% to $336.3M vs. est. $272.4M; sees Q1 revenue growth mid-40% range and guides year revs growth 20%-25%; sees year EPS $1.75-$1.91 vs. est. $1.43

·     Gap Stores (GPS) 4Q adj EPS ($0.02) vs est. ($0.14) on revs $4.5B vs est. $3.9B, gross margin 33.7%; guides 1Q -mid-high single digits vs est. -3.8%, sees 1Q ending inventory +mid-20’s% due to earlier booking to offset longer transit times; guides FY adj EPS $1.85-2.05 vs est. $1.86

·     Shake Shack (SHAK) is offering bitcoin as a reward for customers buying food at its chain using Block’s (SQ) Cash App. Purchasers will receive 15% of their order back in the form of bitcoin on any Shake Shack purchase made with Cash Card and by purchasing items via Cash Boost – WSJ

·     Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. (SWBI) Q3 EPS $0.69 vs. est. $0.86; Q3 revs $177.7M vs. est. $198.29M; miss sends shares lower

·     Sprouts Farmers (SFM) announces $600 million share repurchase authorization

·     Sweetgreen (SG) Q4 EPS ($1.14) vs est. ($0.66) on revenue $96.4M vs est. $84.7M, same-store sales +36%; sees FY22 revs $515M-$535M vs est. $513.1M, at least 35 net new restaurant openings, same-store sales +20-26%

·     Xponential Fitness, Inc. (XPOF) 4Q adj EPS ($0.21) vs est. ($0.15) on revs $49.4Mm vs est. $42Mm; guides FY revs $201-211Mm vs est. $199.5Mm

 

Energy, Industrials and Materials

·     Chicago wheat futures rose by their daily limit Thursday to another 14-year high, powering past $11 per bushel for the first time since 2008 and capping a 32% gain so far this week, as the Russia-Ukraine war raises fears of a major disruption to grain export

·     AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV) 3Q adj EPS $0.32 vs est. $0.30 on revs $90.1Mm vs est. $106.7Mm; guides FY revs $440-460Mm vs est. $451.4Mm and adj EPS $1.23-1.37 vs est. $1.30

·     AGL Energy (AGL) Q EPS ($0.14) vs est. ($0.11) on revs $463Mm vs est. $452.9Mm; sees 1Q revs $635-650Mm vs est. $597.4Mm and FY revs $2.505-2.590B vs est. $2.58B

·     Eagle Bulk Shipping (EGLE) 4Q adj EPS $5.38 vs est. $6.00 on revs $184.7Mm vs est. $152.1Mm

·     Jacobs Engineering (J) expects about $3B of data and consulting revenue entering fiscal 2025; sees FY 2022-24 organic net revenue growth Target of 7% to 10% CAGR and reiterates about $10.00 of adjusted EPS in fiscal 2025, in-line with prior view

·     QUANEX (NX) 1Q adj EPS $0.34 vs est. $0.26 on revs $267Mm vs est. $242.9Mm; sees FY net sales $1.13-1.15B vs est. $1.11B

·     Nutrien (NTR) files $5.0B mixed securities shelf

 

Financials

·     Affirm (AFRM) files mixed securities shelf

·     CBOE Global Markets (CBOE) trading volume for February 2022: total volume across its four options exchanges was 250.9 mln contracts in Feb

·     Payoneer Global Inc. (PAYO) Q4 EPS (6c) vs est. (2c) on revenue $139.2M vs est. $126.3M, volume +16% to $16.2B; now sees FY22 revenues $530M-$540M vs est. $559.8M as Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine represented slightly less than 10% of their revenues in 2021 and guidance assumes 0 contribution from these three countries for the rest of the year (would have projected $576M-$586M excluding the impact of the current conflict)

 

Healthcare

·     Biogen (BIIB) and Eisai (ESALY) began submission of application data in Japan aimed at getting an early approval of their Alzheimer’s disease (AD) therapy lecanemab

·     Illumina’s (ILMN) plans to reduce prices and allow competitors continued access to its technology had not yet convinced EU antitrust regulators reviewing the life sciences company’s $7.1B acquisition of Grail, Reuters reported

·     Cooper Companies (COO) Q1 EPS $3.24 vs. est. $3.10; Q1 revs $787.2M vs. est. $744.34M; reaffirms FY22 EPS view $13.60-$14.00 vs. est. $14.36 and backs FY22 revenue $3.26B-$3.33B, vs. consensus $3.29B; Gross margin of 66% compared with 66% in last year’s first quarter; operating margin of 17% compared with 20% in last year’s first quarter

·     Evolus, Inc. (EOLS) 4Q EPS ($0.33) vs est. ($0.21) on revs $34.7Mm vs est. $34Mm; guides FY revs $143-150Mm vs est. $147.3Mm

·     Puma Biotechnology, Inc. (PBYI) Q4 EPS $0.21 vs. est. loss (-$0.09); Q4 revs $55.4M vs. est. $47.2M; NERLYNX revenue for Q4 was $51M vs. $50M y/y; operating expenses fell -24% y/y to $48.6M and cash equivalent fell -26% y/y

·     Treace Medical (TMCI) 4Q EPS ($0.12) vs est. ($0.01) on revs $33.4Mm vs est. $32.3Mm; guides FY revs $125-130Mm vs est. $124.3Mm

 

Technology, Media & Telecom

·     Broadcom (AVGO) Q1 adj EPS $8.39 vs. est. $8.08; Q1 revs $7.71B vs. est. $7.6B; sees Q2 revenue $7.9B vs. est. $7.93B; sees Q2 adjusted EBITDA approximately 62.5% of projected revenue; record Q1 results were driven by strong enterprise demand, and investments in next generation technology by hyperscale and service providers

·     Duolingo, Inc. (DUOL) 4Q EPS ($0.46) vs est. ($0.69) on revs $73Mm vs est. $68.9Mm, total bookings $90.8Mm +59%, MAUs 42.4Mm +15%

·     Walt Disney (DIS) is discussing the prospect of a more inexpensive ad-supported version of its Disney+ video-streaming service, The Information reports

·     Elastic NV (ESTC) Q3 adjusted EPS loss (12c) vs. est. loss (21c); Q3 revs $223.9M vs. est. $209.36M; guides year EPS loss (42c-38c) vs. est. loss (-$0.53); sees year revs $853M-$855M vs. est. $832.91M; during Q3, total subscription customer count was over 17,900, vs over 17K in Q2

·     Grid Dynamics Holdings, Inc. (GDYN) 4Q adj EPS $010 vs est. $0.08 on revs $66.5Mm vs est. $58.6Mm; guides 1Q revs $55-60Mm vs est. $55.8Mm

·     Marvell Technology (MRVL) 4Q adj EPS $0.50 vs est. $0.48 on revs $1.34B vs est. $1.32B; guides 1Q adj EPS $0.48-0.54 vs est. $0.50 and net revs $1.425B +/- 3% vs est. $1.38B with adj gross margin 65-66%, adj op exp $430-435Mm

·     National CineMedia (NCMI) Q4 EPS $0.11 vs. est. loss (-$0.04); Q4 revs rose 304.5% to $63.5M vs. est. $67.8M; guides Q1 revs $32M-$35M vs. est. $48.6M; sees Q1 adjusted Oibda of negative $7.0M to negative $4.0M

·     Ooma, Inc. (OOMA) Q4 adj EPS $0.13 vs. est. $0.10; Q4 revs $50.5M vs. est. $49.97M; had revenue growth of 14% year-over-year and continued ARPU expansion and non-GAAP profitability; sees Q1 adj EPS 9c-11c on revs $49.5M-$50.2M vs. est. 11c/$49.96M.

·     PowerSchool Holdings, Inc. (PWSC) 4Q adj EPS $0.14 vs est. $0.09 on revs $146.1Mm vs est. $141.7Mm; sees 1Q revs $145-148Mm vs est. $144Mm and FY revs $620-626Mm vs est. $613.2Mm

·     Veritone, Inc. (VERI) Q4 EPS $0.37 vs. est. $0.20; Q4 revs $55.1M vs. est. $44.8M; sees Q1 revs $32.5M-$33.5M vs. est. $29.2M; sees year revs $180M-$190M vs. est. $177.1M

·     Vizio Holding (VZIO) sees 1q adj EBITDA loss $2M to profit $2M sees 1q platform+ net rev. $90M to $95M, est. $82.9m – 4q net rev. $628.8m, vs. est. $691.5m