Early Look

Tuesday, March 4, 2025

After stumbling sharply on Monday, U.S. futures are looking softer overnight, while European and Asian stock markets track US equities lower after the U.S. hit top trading partners with new tariffs, while falling oil prices weighed on shares of energy companies. U.S. President Donald Trump’s new 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada took effect on Tuesday, while duties on Chinese goods were doubled to 20%. China retaliated with its own moves, stopping US log imports, and issuing trading curbs, while Canada hits back with sweeping tariffs on $107B in US products. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index declined -454 points to 37,331, the Shanghai Index rose 7 points to 3,324, and the Hang Seng Index dropped -64 points to 22,941. In Europe, the German DAX plunged -484 points or over 2% to 22,662 after closing at an all-time high the day prior, while the FTSE 100 is down -26 points to 8,844. Oil prices are lower, gold prices are higher, Bitcoin extends yesterday pullback, and the US dollar is down -0.5%.

Stock markets tumbled again on Monday amid further signs of slowing for the U.S. economy, another higher inflation reading and as President Donald Trump confirmed his promised tariffs against Canada and Mexico will go into effect on Tuesday. The selloff sent all three major U.S. indexes sharply lower as the S&P 500 notched its biggest daily percentage drop since Dec. 18 for the lowest close for the S&P 500 since January 14^th. President Trump confirmed that 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico will go into effect on Tuesday, a move which will affect about $900 billion in annual imports. Earlier, the February ISM Manufacturing report showed slowing new orders and a rise in prices paid, while the Atlanta Fed Now Q1 GDP forecast was revised lower for the second time in as many days to (-2.8%). Construction spending unexpectedly retreated as crucial raw materials (lumber, copper) face tariff-related price spikes. The CBOE volatility index (VIX) finished Monday up 3.15 points or 16.05% at 22.78, for its highest close since Dec. 19 and the Russell 2000 small cap index declined -2.8% to the lowest level since September. The AI trade has also unraveled over the last month, led by chip names (NVDA, AVGO, ARM), data centers (DELL, VRT, SMCI), nuclear power stocks (CEG, NRG, OKLO, VST), and a host full of names that had surged in 2024 on AI spending/outlook hopes. This pullback has been a large drag on the Nasdaq and soured sentiment in riskier sectors.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -649.67 points, or 1.48%, to 43,191.24.
• The Nasdaq Composite tumbled -497.09 points, or 2.64%, to 18,350.19.
• The Russell 2000 Index declined by -60.84 points, or 2.81%, to 2,102.23.

• 8:55 AM ET                  Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
• 2:20 PM ET                   Fed’s Williams Speaks at Bloomberg Invest Forum
• 4:30 PM ET API Weekly Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: AVAV ATRO ATNI BOX CHPT CDXC CRDO CRCT CRWD CYRX EC EOLS EOSE FLUT FTEK HRZN INGM JWN KIDS MEC NPCE OOMA ORN OWLT RIGL ROST SCOR STEM SQM SWIM TKNO WEYS

• Goldman Sachs 10th Disruptive Technology Symposium, 3/4-3/5, in London
• Keybanc Emerging Technology Summit, 3/4-3/5, in San Francisco, CA
• Morgan Stanley Technology, Media and telecom Conference, 3/3-3/6, in San Francisco, CA
• RBC Capital Global Financial Institutions Conference, 3/4-3/5, in New York
• TD Cowen 45th Annual Healthcare Conference, 3/3-3/5, in Boston, MA
• China Caixin Services PMI for February

• General Motors (GM) and Ford (F) shares declined Monday after President Donald Trump confirmed tariffs of 25% on Canada and Mexico will take effect on Tuesday with reciprocal tariffs beginning Apr 2^nd.
• Heidrick & Struggles (HSII) Q4 adj EPS $1.08 vs est. $0.63 on revs $418Mm vs est. $263.25Mm; guides Q1 revs $263-273Mm vs est. $264.37Mm.
• Tesla’s (TSLA) sales of its China-made electric vehicles fell 28.7% in the first two months of 2025 from a year earlier, data showed on Tuesday. Tesla, which makes its Model 3 and Model Y vehicles in China, sold 93,926 Chinese-made vehicles worldwide in January and February, according to data from the CPCA.
• ThredUp Inc. (TDUP) Q4 EPS ($0.19) vs est. ($0.10) on revs $67.267Mm vs est. $67.02Mm, gr mgn 80.4%; guides Q1 revs $67.5-69.5Mm vs est. $64.01Mm and FY revs $270-280Mm vs est. $262.09Mm.

• Honeywell International (HON) is nearing a roughly $2.2 billion deal for pump-and-compressor maker Sundyne, according to people familiar with the matter, extending the company’s brisk pace of dealmaking – WSJ.
• NuScale Power (SMR) reported Q4 revenue of $34.2M vs $4.6M last year.
• Vistra (VST) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Bank America after 27% pullback as views the base business of baseload generation and competitive retail as well-positioned to benefit from tightening markets.

• Dave Inc. (DAVE) Q4 adj EPS $2.04 vs est. $0.42, adj EBITDA $33.4Mm vs est. $19.32Mm on revs $100.9Mm vs est. $95.45Mm; guides FY revs $415-435Mm vs est. $408.54Mm, adj EBITDA $110-120Mm vs est. $89.76Mm.
• JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Starwood Property (STWD) agreed to lend $2B for a 100-acre data center campus in West Jordan, Utah, the WSJ reported. The borrower, a venture of CIM Group and Novva Data Centers, said the facility will be able to provide 175 megawatts of continuous power, which would be roughly enough to power 175,000 average-size U.S. homes.
• Repay Holdings (RPAY) Q4 adj EPS $0.24 vs. est. $0.25; Q4 revs $78.3M vs. est. $82.47M; reported gross profit growth of 2% in Q4 and 6% FY24; announces strategic review process, including potential strategic alternatives.
• NCR Atleos (NATL) Q4 adj EPS $1.11 vs. est. $1.02; Q4 revs $1.1B, in-line with consensus; sees FY25 adjusted EPS growth 21%-27% and sees FY25 revenue growth 1%-3% in constant currency.

• Amneal Pharmaceuticals (AMRX) announced that the FDA has accepted for review its Biologics Licensing Application for two proposed denosumab biosimilars referencing Prolia and XGEVA.
• Concentra Group (CON) Q4 adj. EBITDA $77.5M, vs. est. $75.8M; Q4 revs $465M vs. est. $464M; forecasts FY25 adj. EBITDA $410M-$425M, vs. est. $405.3M and sees Fy25 revs about $2.1B vs. est. $2.05B.
• Ironwood Pharma (IRWD) files to delay annual 10K report; expects to report internal controls material weakness.
• Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) is nearing an agreement with private equity company Sycamore Partners to go private in a $10B deal, The Wall Street Journal reported and could see Sycamore pay $11.30-$11.40 per share, could be announced as soon as Thursday https://tinyurl.com/55h6esua

• GigaCloud Technology (GCT) Q4 adj EPS $0.75 vs est. $0.81, adj EBITDA $30.9Mm vs est. $40.3Mm on revs $295.8Mm, gr mgn 22%; guides Q1 revs $250-265Mm vs est. $281.4Mm.
• GitLab Inc. (GTLB) Q4 adj EPS $0.35 vs est. $0.23 on revs $211.4Mm vs est. $206.12Mm, adj gr mgn 91%; guides Q1 revs $212-213Mm vs est. $212.33Mm and adj EPS $0.14-0.15 vs est. $0.15; sees FY revs $936-942Mm vs est. $939.1Mm and adj EPS $0.68-0.72 vs est. $0.79.
• Okta Inc. (OKTA) Q4 adj EPS $0.78 vs est. $0.74 on revs $628Mm vs est. $669.46Mm; guides Q1 revs $678-680Mm vs est. $670.81Mm and adj EPS $0.76-0.77 vs est. $0.70; sees FY revs $2.85-2.86B vs est. $2.8B and adj EPS $3.15-3.20 vs est. $2.94.
• Roku (ROKU) upgraded to Neutral from Sell at MoffettNathanson with a $70 price target as the firm believes 2025 is setting up as “a beat-and-raise story” for Roku.
• SoundHound (SOUN) files for non-timely 10K with SEC; said material weakness continues to exist.
• Spire Global (SPIR) Q3 adj EPS ($0.43) vs est. ($0.19) on revs $28.6Mm vs est. $32.05Mm; guides FY revs $108-111Mm vs est. $121.5Mm, adj EBITDA ($20.9)Mm-($18.9)Mm vs est. $7.57Mm and adj EPS ($2.39)-($2.31) vs est. ($1.20).
• Viant Technology (DSP) Q4 adj EPS $0.15 vs est. $0.12 on revs $90.1Mm vs est. $83.96Mm; guides Q1 revs $65-68Mm and adj EBITDA $3.25-4.25Mm vs est. $3.967Mm.