Early Look

Wednesday, March 5, 2025

U.S. futures are bouncing following a late day pullback Tuesday that dented the midday rally, as Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said President Donald Trump’s administration is considering granting relief from his 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports for products that comply with an existing trade pact he negotiated with the two US neighbors during his first term. In premarket trading, shares of Ford (F), GM rose after logging sharp declines in the previous session. Investors also welcomed Trump’s commitment to extend his 2017 tax cuts, as he reiterated his tax cut plans in an address to Congress on Tuesday, where he said, “America is back”. On the data front, ADP‘s national employment report and ISM‘s services sector survey will be in focus later in the day. The Fed is also slated to unveil its beige book at 2:00 p.m. ET. In stock movers, shares of AVAV, BOX, CRWD, OOMA are falling after results last night while crypto names are bouncing with Bitcoin up 2% back around $90,000.

The S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq declined for the 7^th time in the last 9-days on Tuesday, while the Russell 2000 declined for the 8^th time in last 10-trading days (lowest since August) as trade tensions escalated following U.S. President Donald Trump’s new tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China. The 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, along with doubled duties on Chinese goods (to 20%), took effect on Tuesday. China and Canada retaliated while Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum vowed to respond likewise, without giving details. The Nasdaq Composite has pulled back more than 10% from its December high while the S&P 500 index (SPX) dropped below its 200-dma of 5,725 Tuesday before recovering. The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) dropped below its 200-dma support of 20,221 before recovering as well on Tuesday. The NYSE breadth was 3-1 decliners outpacing advancers on Tuesday with heavy selling in Financials (C, GS, JPM), while the VIX rose 0.70% to its highest since December 20. Also, massive volume as @3PeaksTrading noted: “$SPY volume of 107M shares today also the highest non triple witch expiration volume day since the August 5th low”. Concerns about domestic growth also weighing on sentiment as already evident last week when the Atlanta Fed GDPNow-model shifted from an expected Q1 seasonally adjusted annual rate of growth of 2.3% to a -1.5% decline, then to a -2.8% decline in a span of only a few days.

In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index gained 87 points to 37,418, the Shanghai Index rose 17 points to 3,341, and the Hang Seng Index jumped 652 points to 23,594. In Europe, the German DAX is surging 725 points or 3.24% to 23,051 back to record highs as the parties hoping to form Germany’s next government on Tuesday agreed to create a 500-billion-euro infrastructure fund and overhaul borrowing rules (sending bunds lower), while the FTSE 100 is up 40 points to 8,798. Oil prices are lower, and the US dollar sinks further as the euro rises to 1.0680, the highest levels since early November.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled -670.25 points, or 1.55%, to 42,520.99.
• The Nasdaq Composite slipped -65.03 points, or 0.35%, to 18,285.16.
• The Russell 2000 Index declined -22.70 points, or 1.08% to 2,079.54.

• 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Composite PMI, Feb-Final…prior 50.4
• 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Services PMI, Feb-final…prior 49.7
• 10:00 AM ET ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for February…est. 52.6 (prior 52.8)
• 10:00 AM ET                Factory Orders M/M for January…est. +1.6%
• 10:00 AM ET                Durable Goods Orders M/M for January
• 10:30 AM ET                Weekly EIA Inventory Data
• 2:00 PM ET                   Fed Beige Book released

• Earnings After the Close: ACR ALNT ALTG AMPY AQST AWRE BALY DSGX EHAB GPRK GRND INVE KGS LB LPSN MDB MEI MRVL NC NNBR NOA RYAM RGTI SGHT SNBR SVCO TPVG TREE VEEV VSCO YEXT ZS ZYME

• Keybanc Emerging Technology Summit, 3/4-3/5, in San Francisco, CA
• Morgan Stanley Technology, Media and telecom Conference, 3/3-3/6, in San Francisco, CA
• RBC Capital Global Financial Institutions Conference, 3/4-3/5, in New York
• TD Cowen 45th Annual Healthcare Conference, 3/3-3/5, in Boston, MA

• The America Petroleum Institute (API) reports that crude inventories fell 1.455M barrels last week and gasoline inventories fell 1.249M barrels, and distillate stocks rose by 1.14 million barrels.
• The parties hoping to form Germany’s next government on Tuesday agreed to create a 500-billion-euro infrastructure fund and overhaul borrowing rules in a tectonic spending shift to revamp the military and revive growth in Europe’s largest economy. Friedrich Merz’s conservatives and the Social Democrats, who are in negotiations to form a coalition after a national election last month, will put proposals to the German parliament.

• Ross Stores (ROST) Q4 EPS $1.82 vs est. $1.66 on sales $5.912B vs est. $5.953B; guides Q1 comps -3% to flat and EPS $1.33-1.47 vs est. $1.52; sees FY comps -1% to +2% and EPS $5.95-6.55 vs est. $6.69.
• ChargePoint (CHPT) Q4 EPS loss (-$0.14) vs. est. loss (-$0.08); Q4 revs $101.9M vs. est. $101.1M; sees Q1 revenue $95M-$105M vs. est. $102.1M and says remains committed to its plans of achieving positive non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA during a quarter in fiscal year 2026.
• Cricut Inc. (CRCT) Q4 EPS $0.06 vs est. $0.04 on revs $209.309Mm vs est. $216.47Mm.
• Latham Group (SWIM) Q4 EPS ($0.25) vs est. ($0.09), adj EBITDA $3.6Mm vs est. $3.89Mm on sales $87.3Mm vs est. $85.4Mm, gr mgn 24.6%; sees FY sales $535-565Mm vs est. $528.94Mm, adj EBITDA $90-100Mm vs est. $89.15Mm.
• Thor Industries (THO) cuts FY25 EPS view to $3.30-$4.00 from $4.00-$5.00 (est. $4.48), while FY25 revenue view was narrowed to $9B-$9.5B from $9.0B-$9.8B (vs. est. $9.43B) and cuts FY25 consolidated gross profit margin view to 13.8%-14.5% from 14.7%-15.2%.

• GE Vernova (GEV) was upgraded to Buy at Guggenheim following pullback in shares.

• Late yesterday, the U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau told a federal court it was dropping a lawsuit filed in December against three of the nation’s largest banks over their handling of the payment service Zelle, court papers show.

• Evolus Inc. (EOLS) Q4 adj EPS $0.25 vs est. $0.04 on revs $79Mm vs est. $78.26Mm, adj gr mgn 67.5%; guides FY sales $345-355Mm vs est. $351.29Mm.
• Molina Healthcare (MOH) was upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Wells Fargo saying its analysis of Medicaid policy leaves it increasingly comfortable that Medicaid stocks have adequately priced in risks of reasonably likely legislative outcomes.
• NeuroPace Inc. (NPCE) Q4 EPS ($0.18) vs est. ($0.22) on revs $21.466Mm vs est. $21.2Mm; guides FY revs $92-96Mm vs est. $92.97Mm and gr mgn 73-75%.
• Rigel Pharmaceuticals (RIGL) Q4 EPS $0.80 vs. est. $0.58; Q4 revs $57.6M, vs. est. $51.7M; sees FY25 revenue $200M-$210M vs. est. $204.88M and said anticipates it will report positive net income for the full year 2025; Q4 TAVALISSE net product sales of $31.0M, REZLIDHIA net product sales of $7.4M and GAVRETO product sales $8.1M

• ArcelorMittal’s (MT) India joint venture has warned it may have to severely curtail steelmaking in the country and delay its expansion plans due to New Delhi’s import restrictions on a key raw material, a company letter to the government showed – Reuters.
• Astronics Corp. (ATRO) Q4 EPS $0.48 vs est. $0.19, adj EBITDA $31.539Mm vs est. $25.36Mm on revs $208.54Mm vs est. $194.91Mm.
• Custom Truck One Source (CTOS) Q4 EPS $0.12 vs est. $0.04, adj EBITDA $102Mm vs est. $106Mm on sales $520.7Mm vs est. $543.342Mm.
• XPO (XPO) reported certain preliminary LTL segment operating metrics for February 2025. LTL tonnage per day decreased 8.1%, as compared with February 2024, attributable to a y/y decrease of 6.2% in shipments per day and a decrease of 2.0% in weight per shipment.

• Box Inc. (BOX) expands stock repurchase program by another $150M; Q4 adj EPS $0.42 on revs $280M, both in-line with consensus; sees Q1 adj EPS $0.25-$0.26 below consensus est. $0.43 and revs $274M-$275M vs. est. $278.94M; sees FY26 adj EPS $1.13-$1.17 vs. est. $1.87 on revs $1.155B-$1.16B vs. est. $1.16B.
• Credo Technology Group (CRDO) Q3 adj EPS $0.25 vs est. $0.18 on revs $135Mm vs est. $120.1Mm, ad gr mgn 63.8%; sees Q4 revs $155-165Mm vs est. $137.44Mm, gr mgn 62.7-64.7%.
• Ingram Micro (INGM) Q4 EPS $0.92 vs. est. $0.91 and sales rose 2.5% y/y to $13.3B vs. est. $13.21B; Q4 Gross profit was $936.1M, compared to $978.7M y/y; Q4 Income from operations margin was 1.86%, compared to 2.54% y/y; Q4 adj EBITDA was $418.1M, compared to $435.4M y/y; board approves $75M buyback.
• Ooma Inc. (OOMA) Q4 adj EPS $0.21 vs. est. $0.16; Q4 revs $65.1M vs. est. $64.7M; sees FY26 adj EPS $0.77-$0.82 vs. est. $0.69 and sees FY26 revenue $267M-$270M vs. est. $271.92M.
• In Semiconductors: President Donald Trump said U.S. lawmakers should get rid of a 2022 bipartisan law to give $52.7 billion in subsidies for semiconductor chips manufacturing and production and use the proceeds to pay debt. Also, the WSJ reported the U.S. government office responsible for a $52B chip subsidy program will lose about two-fifths of its staff as President Trump reduces the federal workforce.