Early Look

Tuesday, March 11, 2025

After the S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq Composite officially posted their worst days since 2022, US futures are looking slightly higher as a global stocks’ selloff fueled by concerns that tariffs and government spending cuts will hit US growth eased. Growing concerns about the U.S. economy tipping into a recession sent shockwaves through markets on Monday as the S&P 500 fell about -2.7%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than -2%, or about 890 points and the Nasdaq Composite slid -4%, its worst day since 2022 led by big declines in mega cap tech (AAPL, NVDA, GOOGL, META, TSLA, etc.). The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) which measures expectations for where the market is headed, jumped to its highest level since the global markets rout in early August (highs of 29.56). President Donald Trump over the weekend refused to rule out the U.S. entering a recession this year, telling Fox News there will be a “period of transition, because what we’re doing is very big” – those comments weighed heavily on sentiment Monday. Monday’s drop follows a turbulent week in markets, with concerns growing about how the administration’s tariff policies could affect U.S. growth. The S&P 500 finished Friday with a 3.1% weekly drop, its biggest decline in six months. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is at 4.22% this morning, edging higher after settling Friday above 4.31%. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index fell -236 points to 36,793, the Shanghai Index rose 13 points to 3,379, and the Hang Seng Index was little changed, down -1 point to 23,782. In Europe, the German DAX is up 92 points to 22,713, while the FTSE 100 is down -12 points to 8,587. A busy week of economic data to come with CPI Wednesday and PPI on Thursday. In Stock news, Oracle (ORCL) shares dip on earnings overnight while transports tumble on guidance from DAL and LUV.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -890.01 points, or 2.08%, to 41,911.71.
• The Nasdaq Composite plunged -727.90 points, or 4.00%, to 17,468.32.
• The Russell 2000 Index declined -56.44 points, or 2.72% to 2,019.04.

• 7:45 AM ET ICSC Weekly Retail Sales
• 8:55 AM ET                  Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
• 10:00 AM ET                Jolts Job Openings for January…est. 7.63M (prior 7.6M)
• 1:00 PM ET WASDE Agricultural report for March
• 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell $58B in 3-year notes
• 4:30 PM ET API Weekly Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: BBCP BIRD CASY HRTG LDI MXCT NATR OPRX SFIX SNCR VTS ZVRA

• Cantor 2025 Global Technology Conference, 3/11-3/12, in New York
• Deutsche Bank 33rd Annual Media, Internet & Telecom Conference, 3/10-3/12 in Palm Beach, FL
• Goldman Sachs 13th Annual Latin America Financials Conference, 3/10-3/11, in London
• Loop Capital Markets Investor Conference, 3/10-3/11, in New York
• Piper Western Bank Forum, 3/10-3/11, at Ritz Carlton, Marina Del Rey Ca.
• UBS Media, Internet and Technology Conference, 3/11-3/12, in London

• The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) said its Small Business Optimism Index fell 2.1 points to 100.7 last month, mirroring declines in both consumer and business confidence as well. The NFIB’s Uncertainty Index rose 4 points to 104, the second-highest reading on record.

• Mission Produce (AVO) reports Q1 adj EPS $0.10 vs. est. $0.03; Q1 revenue $334.2M vs. est. $285.6M; sees FY25 capital expenditures $50M-$55M; said Industry volumes in Q2 are expected to be consistent with prior year; Mexico volumes should taper off during the quarter as the industry harvest comes in lighter than est.
• One Group Hospitality (STKS) Q4 adj EPS ($0.03) vs est. $0.03, adj EBITDA $30.3Mm vs est. $29.36Mm on revs $221.9Mm vs est. $21.56Mm; guides Q1 revs $200-205Mm vs est. $202.4Mm, adj EBITDA $24-26Mm vs est. $24.48Mm; sees FY revs $835-870Mm vs est. $822.86Mm and adj EBITDA $95-115Mm vs est. $105.84Mm.
• Unilever’s (UL) new Chief Executive Officer Fernando Fernandez expects to accelerate the company’s turnaround plans by selling a number of underperforming brands in the food segment.
• Vail Resorts (MTN) Q2 EPS $6.57 vs est. $6.31, op Inc $384.417Mm vs est. $373.1Mm on revs $1.137B vs est. $1.13B; guides FY resort EBITDA $841-877Mm vs est. $871Mm.

• HighPeak Energy (HPK) Q4 EPS $0.06 vs est. $0.12, EBITDAX $179.4Mm vs est. $198.48Mm; says expects to average two drilling rigs and one frac crew during 2025; sees 2025 avg production rate $47,000-50,500 BOE/D.

• Paymentus Holdings (PAY) Q4 adj EPS $0.13 vs. est. $0.12; Q4 revs $257.9M vs. est. $222.06M; Q4 contribution profit and adj EBITDA rose 56.5%, 30.0% and 36.9% y/y, respectively; sees FY25 revenue $1.04B-$1.06B, above consensus $1.03B and sees FY25 adjusted EBITDA $112M-$116M.
• Sezzle (SEZL) declared a six-for-one split of the Company’s common stock in the form of a stock dividend; the Board has authorized the Company to repurchase up to $50.0 million of the Company’s common stock.
• Crypto- and blockchain-related stocks up in premarket trading as Bitcoin rises 3% above $81,000; shares of crypto exchange Coinbase Global (COIN), Crypto miners Riot Platforms (RIOT), Hut 8 Mining (HUT) and Marathon Digital (MARA) and Bitcoin buyer MicroStrategy (MSTR) are all higher.

• Coherus BioSciences (CHRS) Q4 adj EPS ($0.28) vs est. ($0.13) on sales $53.933Mm vs est. $47.3Mm; says projects post-UDENYCA-close cash of approximately $250M and cash runway projections exceeding two years, past key data readouts expected in 2026.
• Illumina (ILMN) lowered its annual 2025 EPS forecast to about $4.50 from prior $4.50-$4.65 and said it plans to cut $100 million in spending after China announced a ban on imports of its genetic sequencing instruments.
• Mineralys Therapeutics (MLYS) announces $250M common stock offering.
• 2seventy Bio (TSVT) announced a definitive merger agreement under which Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) will acquire all of the outstanding shares of 2seventy Bio at a price of $5.00 per share in an all-cash transaction for a total equity value of approximately $286M

• Southwest Airlines (LUV) cuts 1Q RASM to up 2%-4% from prior view up 5%-7%, primarily due to increased capacity and lower than expected salary, wages, and benefits, maintenance, and other expenses; sees 1Q fuel cost per gallon of $2.35-$2.45; sees 1Q ASMs down 2% and sees 1Q CASM-X up 6%; says accelerating $2.5B share buyback program; will charge to check bags for the first time, launch basic economy tickets.
• Ingevity (NGVT) announces appointment of David H. Li as President and CEO; Li brings 25-year+ record of driving successful corporate transformation, long-term growth and stockholder value creation at premier global specialty materials supplier
• Quanex Building (NX) Q1 adj EPS $0.19 vs. est. loss (-$0.01); Q1 revs rose 67.3% y/y to $400M vs. est. $382M; Q1 adj Ebitda $38.5M; Q1 gross margins 23.1%; reaffirms FY25 guidance.
• Rocket Labs (RKLB) schedules two launches three days apart, upcoming mission to deploy final satellites in Kinéis constellation.
• StandardAero Inc. (SARO) Q4 EPS ($0.04) vs est. $0.14 on revs $1.41B vs est. $1.368B; guides FY revs $5.8-5.95B vs est. $5.838B.
• While the White House granted temporary reprieve for many tariffs on Canada and Mexico, a similar pause is not expected for the steel and aluminum tariffs set to go into effect later this week – WSJ reports.

• Asana (ASAN) Q4 EPS $0.00 vs. est. loss (-$0.01); Q4 revenue $188.3M, in-line with consensus $188.1M; announces CEO succession plan as Moskovitz has informed board of his intention to retire as CEO upon the appointment of a successor; sees Q1 revenue $184.5M-$186.5M vs. est. $190.7M.
• AT&T (T) expects to receive $1.4B-$1.5B of cash payments from DIRECTV in Q1 related to its agreement to sell its 70% stake in DIRECTV to TPG. The company continues to expect to close the sale by mid-2025, and to receive total after-tax cash payments related to this transaction of $5.4 billion in 2025, as well as after-tax cash payments of $500 million in 2029.
• Fiverr (FVRR) board authorization of additional $100M for share buyback.
• PLAYSTUDIOS (MYPS) Q4 EPS ($0.18) vs est. ($0.08) on revs $67.8Mm vs est. $67.42Mm; guides FY revs $250-270Mm vs est. $269.84Mm and adj EBITDA $45-55Mm vs est. $64.59Mm.
• Facebook owner Meta (META) is testing its first in-house chip for training artificial intelligence systems, a key milestone as it moves to design more of its own custom silicon and reduce reliance on external suppliers like Nvidia (NVDA), Reuters reported citing two sources.