Morning Preview: March 12, 2024

Early Look

Tuesday, March 12, 2024









S&P 500










U.S. futures are bouncing ahead of this morning’s CPI inflation reading, with Nasdaq futures outperforming following better results/guidance from Oracle (ORCL), with shares +13% overnight helping boost software stocks. Stocks finished mixed on Monday with the S&P, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000 down slightly while the Dow edged higher as investors await key CPI inflation data Tuesday that could provide insight to when the Federal Reserve could begin its much-anticipated interest rate cutting phase. Note the S&P 500 (SPX) is now down 2-days in a row, still hasn’t had a three consecutive down day since January 4th, so lots of pressure on the CPI inflation report. Materials led the S&P sector gainers, up 1.13%, with industrials leading decliners, down 0.53%. Estimates are for headline CPI M/M to rise +0.4% (vs. last month +0.3%) and on a Y/Y basis to rise +3.1% (in-line with January). The Core CPI reading (ex-food & energy) M/M est. to rise +0.3% (vs. +0.4% in Jan) and to rise +3.7% Y/Y (vs. last month +3.9%). The producer price index (PPI) will be released on Thursday. In an interview last night, JPM CEO Jamie Dimon suggested the Fed needs to wait longer before cutting interest rates. Dimon said he wouldn’t start lowering rates until after June, though he said there’s a bigger chance of recession than the market is accounting for at present. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index dipped -22 points to 38,797, the Shanghai Index fell -12 points to 3,055, and the Hang Seng Index jumped 505 points to 17,093. In Europe, the German DAX is up 66 points to 17,812, while the FTSE 100 rises 80 points to 7,750.


Market Closing Prices Yesterday

  • The S&P 500 Index dipped -5.75 points, or 0.11%, to 5,117.94.
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 46.97 points, or 0.12%, to 38,786.30.
  • The Nasdaq Composite slipped -65.84 points, or 0.41%, to 16,019.27.
  • The Russell 2000 Index declined -16.83 points, or 0.81% to 2,065.88.

Economic Calendar for Today

  • 6:00 AM ET                  NFIB Small Business Optimism for February
  • 7:45 AM ET                  ICSC Weekly Retail Sales
  • 8:30 AM ET                  Consumer Price Index (CPI) M/M for February…est. +0.4%
  • 8:30 AM ET                  Consumer Price Index (CPI) Y/Y for February…est. +3.1%
  • 8:30 AM ET                  CPI (core) Ex: Food & Energy M/M for February…est. +0.3%
  • 8:30 AM ET                  CPI (core) Ex: Food & Energy Y/Y for February…est. +3.7%
  • 8:55 AM ET                  Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
  • 11:00 AM ET                Cleveland Fed CPI for February
  • 1:00 PM ET                   US Treasury to sell $42B in 10-year notes.
  • 2:00 PM ET                   Federal Budget for February
  • 4:30 PM ET                   API Weekly Inventory Data

Earnings Calendar:


Other Key Events:

  • Barclay’s Global Healthcare Conference, 3/12-3/14, in Miami, FL
  • Deutsche Bank 32nd Annual Media, Internet & Telecom Conference, 3/11-3/13, in Palm Beach, FL
  • Deutsche Bank Shipping Summit, 3/12 (virtual)
  • JP Morgan Industrials Conference, 3/11-3/14, in New York
  • Loop Capital Annual Investor Conference, 3/11-3/12, in New York
  • Oppenheimer 34th Annual Healthcare MedTech & Services Conference, 3/12-3/13
  • UBS Technology, Media & Internet Conference, 3/12-3/13, in London





















10-Year Note




World News

  • The USDA in a Monday statement said private exporters exited purchases of 264,000 metric tons of US soft red winter wheat to China. It was the third straight session with such an announcement, bringing the cancellation total to 504,000 tons, the most in USDA data going back to 1999 – Bloomberg.
  • President Biden unveiled a $7.3tn budget plan for 2025 which would push US debt over 100% of gross domestic product; Biden is planning to raise taxes on big businesses and the wealthiest households to reduce deficits, offer tax credits to families with children, and help preserve funding for social programs.

Sector News Breakdown


  • Advance Auto Parts (AAP) nears settlement with activist, the WSJ reported late Monday saying activist hedge fund Third Point has a stake in Advance Auto Parts and is close to a settlement with the company that will add three new directors to its board, people familiar with the matter told –
  • Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) said some of its employees have received subpoenas from the Department of Justice amid an ongoing investigation into its accounting practices. The company said the investigation covers the period between January 2018 and September 2023.
  • Calavo Growers (CVGW) Q1 adj EPS loss (-$0.01) vs. est. $0.17; Q1 revs $127.6M vs. est. $252.67M; Q1 adjusted EBITDA $4.8M; expects “solid rebound” in earnings in FY24; says company investigation into potential issues under FCPA is ongoing, company continues to cooperate fully with SEC and DOJ.
  • Casy General (CASY) Q3 EPS $2.33 vs. est. $2.14; Q3 revs $3.33B vs. est. $3.52B; Q3 inside same-store sales increased 4.1% y/y, and 9.9% on a two-year stack basis, with an inside margin of 41.3%; reaffirms annual outlook.
  • On Holding (ONON) Q4 net sales CHF 447.1M vs. est. CHF 450.6M; qtrly gross profit margin increased to 60.4% from 58.5%; guides 2024 reported net sales of at least CHF 2.25B below est. CHF 2.33B; expects negative foreign exchange impacts to be more pronounced in 1H’24.
  • Vail Resorts (MTN) Q2 EPS $5.76 vs. est. $5.98; Q2 revs $1.08B vs. est. $1.15B; cuts FY24 net income view to $270M-$325M from $316M-$394M and sees FY24 Resort Reported EBITDA $849M-$885M, which includes an estimated $4M of acquisition related expenses specific to Crans-Montana (est. $928M).

Energy, Industrials and Materials

  • Alaska Airlines (ALK) forecast a narrower-than-expected Q1 loss due to strong travel demand; forecast a quarterly adjusted loss per share of (55c-45c) vs. est. loss (-$1.18); said Q1 forecast reflects an unspecified partial compensation the carrier received from Boeing; Alaska added.
  • Boeing (BA) whistleblower found dead from ‘self-inflicted’ wound, the BBC reported last night. John Barnett, a former Boeing worker who raised concerns about the company’s production standards, has been found dead in the U.S. – BBC.
  • Delta Air Lines Inc (DAL) sees FY24 forecast earnings per share $6-$7; forecasts Q1 total revenue YoY up 3%-6%; expects to deliver year-over-year total revenue growth in the top half of the initial guidance range for the March quarter; reaffirming its outlook, previously provided on January 12, 2024, for full year 2024 and March quarter.
  • 3M (MMM) said that William Brown will be appointed as chief executive officer, effective May 1, 2024. He succeeds Michael Roman, who is appointed to the role of executive chairman of the 3M Board of Directors, also effective May 1.
  • Southwest Airlines (LUV) said it plans to cut 2024 capacity citing Boeing (BA) challenges; now expects Q1 2024 rasm to be in range of flat to up 2%; sees Q1 2024 capacity to increase about 11%, compared with its previous estimate of about 10%; says reevaluating all prior full year 2024 guidance, including the expectation for capital spending.
  • Talos Energy (TALO) increases 2024 operational and financial guidance following early closing of QuarterNorth acquisition; expects average daily production between 89.0 and 95.0 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day for FY and for Q1 expects average daily production between 78.0 and 80.0 mboe/d.


  • AllianceBernstein L.P. (AB) preliminary assets under management increased to $745 billion during February 2024 from $726 billion at the end of January. The 3% increase in month-end AUM was driven by market appreciation coupled with positive net flows across all channels, led by Retail.
  • Artisan Partners Asset Management Inc. (APAM) preliminary assets under management as of February 29, 2024 totaled $156.0 billion. Artisan Funds and Artisan Global Funds accounted for $75.5 billion of total firm AUM, while separate accounts and other AUM accounted for $80.5 billion.
  • Cohen & Steers, Inc. (CNS) preliminary assets under management of $79.6 billion as of February 29, 2024, an increase of $333 million from assets under management at January 31, 2024. The increase was due to market appreciation of $1.2 billion, partially offset by net outflows of $683 million and distributions of $155 million.
  • Franklin Resources, Inc. (BEN) preliminary month-end assets under management (AUM) of $1.62 trillion at February 29, 2024, compared to $1.60 trillion at January 31, 2024. This month’s increase in AUM reflected the impact of positive markets and long-term net inflows inclusive of the previously disclosed $5.5 billion in the retirement channel.
  • Invesco Ltd. (IVZ) preliminary month-end assets under management (AUM) of $1,630.9 billion, an increase of 3.0% versus the previous month-end. The firm delivered net long-term inflows of $1.8 billion in the month. Non-management fee earning net inflows were $1.9 billion and money market net inflows were $3.5 billion. AUM was positively impacted by favorable market returns which increased AUM by $42 billion. FX decreased AUM by $2.6 billion.
  • Victory Capital Holdings, Inc. (VCTR) February Average Total Assets Under Management was $162.8 billion, average Other Assets was $5.3 billion, and average Total Client Assets was $168.1 billion.
  • Virtus Investment Partners, Inc. (VRTS) preliminary assets under management of $176.1 billion as of February 29, 2024. In addition, the company provided services to $2.6 billion of other fee-earning assets, which are not included in assets under management.


  • Acadia Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ACAD) reported top-line results from the Phase 3 ADVANCE-2 trial evaluating pimavanserin for the treatment of negative symptoms of schizophrenia. Pimavanserin did not demonstrate a statistically significant improvement over placebo on the study’s primary endpoint, the change from baseline to week 26 on the Negative Symptom Assessment-16 (NSA-16) total score. The safety and tolerability profile of pimavanserin was consistent with previous clinical trials, showing a low rate of adverse events.
  • IDEAYA Biosciences, Inc. (IDYA) announced that it has entered into a clinical trial collaboration and supply agreement with Merck (MRK) to evaluate IDE161, the company’s investigational, potential first-in-class, small molecule poly (ADP-ribose) glycohydrolase, or PARG, inhibitor, in combination with KEYTRUDA.
  • Regulus Therapeutics (RGLS) announces positive topline data from the second cohort of patients in its phase 1b multiple-ascending dose (MAD) clinical trial of RGLS8429 for the treatment of autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD).

Technology, Media & Telecom

  • Oracle Corp. (ORCL) Q3 adj EPS $1.41 vs est. $1.38 on revs $13.3B vs est. $13.306B, cloud revs $5.1B, adj op mgn 44%; says expect Gen2 cloud infrastructure business will remain in hypergrowth phase (up 53% in Q3) for the foreseeable future.
  • Asana Inc. (ASAN) Q4 adj EPS ($0.04) vs est. ($0.10) on revs $171.1Mm vs est. $167.68Mm; guides Q1 revs $168-169Mm vs est. $168.25Mm, adj op loss $23Mm – $21Mm vs est. loss $18.87Mm and adj EPS ($0.09)-($0.08) vs est. ($0.08); sees FY revs $716-722Mm vs est. $724.75Mm, adj op loss $61Mm – $55Mm vs est. loss $51.06Mm and adj EPS ($0.22)-($0.19) vs est. ($0.22).
  • Kanzhun (BZ) announces $200M share repurchase program.


Market commentary provided by Hammerstone Markets, Inc, a firm separate from and not affiliated with Regal Securities. Regal Securities has not participated in the creation of the content, and does not explicitly or implicitly endorse the content.