Early Look

Friday, March 14, 2025

U.S. futures are looking higher, with more than a 1% gain for Nasdaq futures overnight trying to recover from another sharp stock market decline on Thursday as signs that lawmakers in Washington will avoid a government shutdown tonight brightened sentiment, as Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer dropped his threat to block the Republican bill last night. The U.S. Senate on Friday was poised to pass a stopgap spending bill and avert a partial government shutdown, after Democrats backed down in a standoff driven by anger over President Donald Trump’s campaign to slash the federal workforce. The Republican-controlled House of Representatives earlier this week passed the measure, which largely leaves spending steady at about $6.75 trillion in the fiscal year that ends September 30. The S&P 500 index (SPX) fell -1.38% yesterday (with a 3^rd straight day of heavy selling pressure in the final hour), closing -10% from its February record, and the Nasdaq down around -15% from December highs. Outside of the Covid stock market pullback, this ranks as one of the deepest pullbacks in such a short period of time (3-weeks) in over 5-years, but the move off record highs does come after back-to-back +25% years. Note the move is almost identical to the -10% decline in 3-weeks last July. Stocks remain under pressure as President Trump continues to counter other countries additional tariffs. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index jumped 263 points to 37,053, the Shanghai Index surged 60 points to 3,419, and the Hang Seng Index advanced 497 points to 23,959. In Europe, the German DAX is rising 138 points to 22,705, while the FTSE 100 is up 45 points to 8,588. Gold prices top $3,000 an ounce for the first time overnight while the dollar slips, and Bitcoin prices climb 3.6% back above $83,000.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -537.36 points, or 1.30%, to 40,813.57
• The Nasdaq Composite tumbled -345.44 points, or 1.96%, to 17,303.01
• The Russell 2000 Index declined -32.77 points, or 1.62% to 1,993.70

• 10:00 AM ET                University of Michigan 1-yr and 5-yr inflation expectations
• 1:00 PM ET                   Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

• O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY) board approves a 15-for-1 stock split.
• Pilgrim’s Pride (PPC) is returning about $1.5 billion to its shareholders through a special dividend; said its board declared a special dividend of $6.30, payable April 17 to shareholders of record April 3. the bulk of the special dividend will go to Brazilian meatpacker JBS, which owns more than 80% of Pilgrim’s Pride.
• Purple Innovation (PRPL) Q4 EPS ($0.08) vs est. ($0.14) on revs $128.975Mm vs est. $129.4Mm; guides FY revs $465-485Mm vs est. $497.27Mm and adj EBITDA $10Mm vs est. $1.327Mm; says reviewing strategic alternatives to maximize shareholder value.
• Tesla (TSLA) plans to make a lower-cost version of its Model Y in Shanghai in an effort to regain ground lost in its second-largest market, Reuters reports
• Ulta Beauty (ULTA) Q4 EPS $8.46 vs est. $7.12 on sales $3.49B vs est. $3.462B; guides FY sales $11.5-11.6B vs. est. $11.668B and EPS $22.50-22.90 vs est. $23.47, sees FY comps flat to +1%.
• Xponential Fitness (XPOF) Q4 op Inc ($51.914Mm) vs est. $20.37Mm on revs $83.2Mm vs est. $81.12Mm; sees FY revs $315-325Mm vs est. $339.54Mm.
• Zumiez (ZUMZ) approves a new stock buyback authorization of up to $25M; Q4 EPS $0.78 vs. est. $0.79; Q4 revs $279.16M, vs. est. $279.4M and reports Q4 comparable sales increased 5.9%; guides Q1 sales $179M-$183M vs. est. $177.5M and sees Q1 EPS loss (-$0.72-$0.82) vs. est. loss (-$0.66).

• Origin Materials (ORGN) Q4 EPS ($0.09) vs est. ($0.11), adj EBITDA ($11.1Mm) vs est. ($31.44Mm) on revs $9.222Mm vs est. $9.08Mm; sees FY26 revs $110-140Mm.
• Pangaea Logistics (PANL) Q4 adj EPS $0.16 vs est. $0.07, adj EBITDA $23.2Mm vs est. $15.6Mm on revs $147.2Mm vs est. $124.18Mm; says Q1-to-date have performed 4,982 shipping days generating TCE rate of $11,412 per day.
• Radius Recycling (RDUS) is being acquired by a U.S. unit of Toyota Tsusho at a roughly 115% premium, acquired for $30 per share in a implied total enterprise value of the deal, including net debt, is about $1.34B.
• NASA and SpaceX on Friday will count down to a long-awaited crewed rocket launch that will allow them to bring home U.S. astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams, who have been stuck on the International Space Station for nine months

• Compass (COMP) is in advanced talks to acquire Warren Buffett’s real-estate brokerage business, according to people familiar with the matter. A deal could come together soon, if talks don’t hit any last-minute snags, the people said. The acquisition price couldn’t be determined – WSJ reported late yesterday.
• KeyCorp (KEY) announces share repurchase program.

• Crown Castle (CCI) Q4 AFFO/share $1.80 vs est. $1.81, adj EBITDA $1.044B vs est. $1.062B on revs $1.65B vs est. $1.64B; guides FY AFFO $1.77-1.82B and adj EBITDA $2.755-2.805B vs est. $4.1B; announces agreement to sell fiber segment; to cut annual dividend to $4.25/shr in Q2, proposed $3.0B share repurchase program.
• DocuSign (DOCU) reports Q4 EPS $0.86 vs. est. $0.85 and revs rose 9% y/y to $776.3M vs. est. $761.64M; Q4 billings rose 11% y/y to $923.2M; guides Q1 revs $745M-$749M vs. est. $755.5M and sees FY26 revs $3.129B-$$3.14B vs. est. $3.15B.
• EverCommerce (EVCM) Q4 adj EBITDA $50.4Mm vs est. $44.7Mm on revs $175Mm vs est. $170.4Mm; guides Q1 revs $138-141Mm vs est. $174.67Mm and adj EBITDA $39-41Mm vs est. $43.96Mm; sees FY revs $581-601Mm vs est. $732.18Mm and adj EBITDA $167.5-175.5 vs est. $187.39Mm.
• Omnicom (OMC) and Interpublic (IPG) announced that the companies have each received a Request for Additional Information and Documentary Material (Second Request) from the U.S. Federal Trade Commission (FTC) in connection with Omnicom’s proposed acquisition of Interpublic.
• PagerDuty (PD) announces a new buyback program for up to $150M; Q4 EPS $0.22 vs. est. $0.16; Q4 revs $121.4M above consensus $119.5M; sees FY26 EPS $0.90-$0.95 vs. est. $0.89 and FY26 revenue $500M-$507M vs. consensus $510.1M after Q1 guidance slightly below.
• Rubrik Inc. (RBRK) Q4 revs rose 47% y/y to $258.1M vs. est. $243.2M; Q4 adj EPS loss (-$0.18) vs. est. loss (-$0.39); guides Q1 EPS loss (-$0.33-$0.31) vs. est. loss (-$0.40 and revs $259M-$261M vs. est. $243.2M; Q4 sub ARR grew 39% y/y to $1.09B; 2,246 customers with $100K or more in Subscription ARR, up 29% y/y
• Semtech (SMTC) Q4 EPS $0.40 vs. est. $0.32; Q4 revs $251.0M vs. est. $249.3M; sees Q1 revenue $245M-$255M, vs. consensus $250.9M, sees Q1 EPS $0.34-$0.40 vs. est. $0.34 and gross margins 52.5%-53.5%