Early Look

Thursday, March 20, 2025

U.S. futures are tumbling, pulling back the last hour of trading and erasing solid gains overnight after European Central Bank (ECB) President Lagarde laid out the cost of a trade war with the United States for the Euro zone’s economy. Lagarde said a 25% tariff imposed by the U.S. on imports from Europe would lower Euro zone growth by about 0.3% points in the first year, while retaliatory measures could increase this to about half a percentage point. The commentary pushed European markets lower, along with the euro and took down US futures as she warned of weaker growth but downplayed the risk of higher inflation if President Trump’s plans for tariffs against the EU were met with retaliation. In other central bank news, the Swiss National Bank cut its interest rate by 25-bps to the lowest since September 2022, while the Bank of England (BoE) is expected hold rates steady this morning. Prior to the ECB commentary, US futures were higher all night, with Spuz touching 5,760 (now around 5,690), trying to build on yesterday’s advance after the FOMC maintained its view for 2 rate cuts still in 2025 after holding rates steady as expected. Overnight, President Trump tweeted on Truth Social, “”The Fed would be MUCH better off CUTTING RATES as U.S. Tariffs start to transition (ease!) their way into the economy. Do the right thing. April 2nd is Liberation Day in America!!!” In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index fell -93 points to 37,751, the Shanghai Index dipped -17 points to 3,408, and the Hang Seng Index plunges -551 points or 2.23% to settle at 24,219. In Europe, the German DAX is tumbling -415 points or 1.78% to 22,872, while the FTSE 100 is down -30 points to 8,675. Gold prices hit fresh all-time highs overnight while copper remains near its all-time best prices.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 383.32 points, or 0.92%, to 41,964.63
• The Nasdaq Composite gained 246.67 points, or 1.41%, to 17,750.79
• The Russell 2000 Index advanced 32.14 points, or 1.57% to 2,082.07

• 8:30 AM ET                  Continuing Claims…est. 1.887M
• 8:30 AM ET                  Philly Fed Business Index for March…est. 8.5
• 8:30 AM ET                  Current Account Balance for Q4…est. (-$325.5B)
• 10:00 AM ET                Existing Home Sales M/M for February…est. 3.95M
• 10:00 AM ET                Leading Index M/M for February…est. (-0.2%)
• 10:30 AM ET                Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: AMPX CBUS CURV FDX KLC LAZR LEN MGNX MU NKE OUST PL QUBT SCHL TELA VXRT

• Oppenheimer 35th Annual Healthcare MedTech & Services Conference, 3/17-3/20
• RBC Capital Opthalmology Conference, 3/20-3/21 in London

• The bull-bear spread in the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) weekly survey was -36.5 vs -40.1 last week. Bulls rise to 21.6% from 19.1%, Neutrals fall to 20.3% from 21.7%, Bears fall to 58.1% from 59.2%.

• Five Below (FIVE) Q4 adj EPS $3.48 vs est. $3.37 on revs $1.39B vs est. $1.379B, comps -3.0% vs. est. -3.3%; sees Q1 net sales $905-925Mm vs est. $898.08Mm and adj EPS $0.50-0.61 vs est. $0.49; sees FY net sales $4.21-4.33B vs est. $4.256B and adj EPS $4.10-4.72 excluding share repurchase vs est. $5.04.
• Shoe Carnival (SCVL) Q4 adj EPS $0.54 vs. est. $0.44; Q4 revs $262.9M vs. est. $275.92M; sees FY25 GAAP EPS $1.60-$2.10, vs. est. $2.63 and sees FY25 revenue $1.15B-$1.23B vs. est. $1.22B.
• Tesla (TSLA) is recalling 46,096 Cybertruck vehicles in the U.S. to fix an exterior panel that could detach while driving; the recall is over issues of the cant rail – a stainless-steel exterior trim panel – delaminating and detaching from the vehicle.

• QXO (QXO) and Beacon Roofing Supply (BECN) announced that they have entered into a definitive merger agreement under which QXO will acquire Beacon for $124.35 per share in cash in a $11B deal.
• Worthington Steel (WS) Q3 adj EPS $0.35, vs. est. $0.48; Q3 revs fell 015% y/y to $687.4M vs. est. $711.4M; Q3 Adjusted EBIT of $25.3M down from $66.9M y/y; said headwinds from the second quarter continued into the third quarter of fiscal 2025 as customers managed uncertainty; Q3 Gross margin decreased by $38.9M y/y to $81.2M, driven primarily by lower direct spreads, and, to a lesser extent lower volume.

• ProAssurance Corporation (PRA) to be acquired by the Doctors Company for $25.00 per share in cash, in deal valued at $1.3B, roughly a 60% premium to the prior day closing price. The combined company will have assets of approximately $12 billion.
• Raymond James Financial (RJF) client assets under administration (AUM) -0.7% m/m to $1.58T as of Feb 28, 2025; said February AUM $251.1B vs. $250.9B m/m.

• Jasper Therapeutics (JSPR) files for mixed shelf offering of up to $300M.
• MediWound Ltd (MDWD) files for mixed shelf offerings of up to $125M; files for offering of 1.3M of ordinary shares by the selling shareholder.
• scPharmaceuticals (SCPH) Q4 EPS ($0.35) vs est. ($0.38) on revs $12.15Mm vs est. $12.08Mm.

• Microchip Technology (MCHP) files a mixed securities shelf; announces launch of an underwritten public offering of $1.35B of depositary shares.
• PDD Holdings (PDD), which operates the Pinduoduo and Temu, missed market estimates for quarterly revenue on Thursday, as demand remained weak in the company’s Chinese e-commerce business; posted Q4 revs of 110.61 billion yuan ($15.27 billion) vs. analysts’ average estimate of 115.38 billion yuan.
• SoftBank Group (SFTBY) acquired chip company Ampere Computing for $6.5B, a U.S. chip startup founded by the former president of Intel (INTC). As part of the deal, Ampere’s biggest investors, Oracle (ORCL) and Carlyle Group (CG), will sell their respective positions in the company SoftBank said.