Early Look

Tuesday, March 25, 2025

After posting one of its largest opening gains of the year on Monday, U.S. futures were very quiet overnight, currently flat around 5,815 and traded in a very narrow range all night (5,802.25 low and 5,816.75 high) as investors weighed whether President Trump would temper his plans for reciprocal tariffs. Stocks surged on Monday after signals the Trump administration could scale back duties due on April 2, with the president saying he may give a lot of countries breaks. Meanwhile, worries about the risk of US recession persist as fears of tariffs and federal layoffs make headlines. Treasuries fell as haven flows receded, with the 10-year yield climbing 8 bps above 4.32% and up another 3 bps this morning while gold stays above $3,000 an ounce. Big advances for major averages on Monday as the Russell 2000 small cap index Marks biggest one-day% gain since Nov 6, 2024, adding 2.55% and the Nasdaq jumped over 2%. The CBOE Volatility index (VIX) closes down 1.8 points or 9.34% at 17.48 for its lowest close since Feb 20. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index jumped 172 points to 37,780, the Shanghai Index was flat at 3,369, and the Hang Seng Index declined -561 points to 23,344. In Europe, the German DAX is higher by over 200 points to 23,059, while the FTSE 100 is up 52 points to 8,690. Handful of data points this morning including housing data consumer confidence and some fed speakers on the calendar.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 597.97 points, or 1.42%, to 42,583.32
• The Nasdaq Composite jumped 404.54 points, or 2.27%, to 18,188.59
• The Russell 2000 Index surged 52.39 points, or 2.55% to 2,109.37

• 8:55 AM ET                  Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
• 9:00 AM ET                  Monthly Home Price M/M for January
• 9:00 AM ET                  CaseShiller 20-city M/M for January…est. +0.4%
• 9:05 AM ET                  Fed’s Williams Gives Opening Remarks
• 10:00 AM ET                Consumer Confidence for March…est. 94.0 (prior 98.3)
• 10:00 AM ET                New Home Sales M/M for February…est. 679K
• 10:00 AM ET                Richmond Fed Index for March…prior +6
• 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell $69B in 2-year notes
• 4:30 PM ET API Weekly Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: BBNX CTSO GME NOAH PAYS PRTS SURG

• In February 2025 year-to-date, new EU car registrations declined by 3% compared to the same period in 2024, reported the ACEA. The bloc’s major markets saw declines, with Italy down 6%, Germany down 4.6%, and France down 3.3%.

• Cintas Corporation (CTAS) announced that it has terminated discussions with UniFirst Corporation (UNF) regarding Cintas’ proposal to acquire all of the outstanding common and Class B shares of UniFirst for $275.00 per share in cash.
• KB Homes (KBH) shares tumble after Q1 revs fell -5% y/y to $1.391B vs. est. $1.499B; Q1 net income fell -21% y/y to $109.55M vs. est. $117.2M; Q1 homes delivered decreased 9% to 2,770; Q1 Average selling price rose 4% to $500,700; Q1 housing gross profit margin decreased to 20.2%, compared to 21.5%; Q1 Net orders of 2,772 were down 17%, contributing to a decrease in ending backlog homes to 4,436; ending backlog value declined 21% to $2.20B; Q1 Inventories increased 7% to $5.94 billion; lowers FY25 housing revenue view to $6.6B-$7.0B from $7.25B and cuts housing gross profit margin view to 19.2%-20.0% from 20%-21%.
• KB Home (KBH) announced that it has appointed Robert R. Dillard as the Company’s Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, effective March 31, 2025. Most recently, Mr. Dillard was the Chief Financial Officer at Sonoco Products Company (SON).
• McCormick (MKC) Q1 adj EPS $0.60 vs. est. $0.64; Q1 rev were reported in-line with consensus at $1.61B; reaffirms 2025 outlook as 2025 outlook reflects plans to offset costs related to US import tariffs on China; sees FY25 adjusted EPS $3.03-$3.08 vs. est. $3.07 and sees FY25 revenue flat to up 2%.
• Smithfield Foods (SFD) forecast growth in annual sales and adjusted operating profit, helped by strong demand for its packaged meats at grocery stores and benefits from its cost-cutting measures.
• Tesla’s (TSLA) market share in Europe continued to shrink y/y in February, data showed, as sales of the all-electric car maker dropped for a second month despite rising EV registrations overall on the continent. Tesla’s battery-electric (BEV) brand has sold 42.6% fewer cars in Europe so far this year, data from the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA) showed. Tesla commanded 1.8% of the total market and 10.3% of the BEV market in February, down from 2.8% and 21.6% last year.

• Bunge (BG) has announced an agreement to sell its European margarines and spreads business to Vandemoortele, a leading family-owned food group in Europe with a strong presence in margarines and plant-based oils & fats.
• Canadian Solar (CSIQ) Q4 adjusted EPS loss (-$1.47) vs. est. loss (-$0.24); Q4 revs fell -11% y/y to $1.52Bvs. est. $1.59B; Q4 Highest single quarter of e-STORAGE shipments to date at 2.2 GWh; Q4 expanded e-STORAGE pipeline to 79 GWh, including $3.2 billion in contracted backlog, as of December 31, 2024.
• Enerpac Tool Group (EPAC) Q2 EPS $0.38 vs. est. $0.40; Q2 sales $145.5M vs. est. $141.6M; reiterating FY guidance, including sales and adj ebitda growth of 5% at midpoint.
• EOG Resources (EOG) downgraded to Neutral at Mizuho and lowered PT to $140 (from $148) after updating its model for YE2024 disclosures.
• Oklo (OKLO) reports FY24 EPS loss (-$0.74) vs (-$0.47) last year to deploy custom COLA application with NRC for Aurora in 2025; on track to deploy first Aurora powerhouse in late 2027; says full year cash used in operations was $38.4M, below forecasted range of $40M-50M.
• Parsons’ (PSN) board approves $250M share repurchase authorization.
• TechnipFMC (FTI) has been awarded a large integrated Engineering, Procurement, Construction, and Installation contract by Equinor for the Johan Sverdrup Phase 3 development in the Norwegian North Sea; For TechnipFMC, a “large” contract is between $500 million and $1 billion.

• Beyond Air Inc (XAIR) Neuronos secures $2.0 million in funding to advance development of an innovative autism therapy.
• Merck (MRK) enters exclusive license agreement for HRS-5346, an investigational oral lipoprotein(a) inhibitor, for cardiovascular disease from Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals Co., Ltd. Hengrui Pharma to receive $200M upfront payment from Merck and eligible for up to $1.77B in milestone payments.
• Neurogene (NGNE) FY op Inc ($82.605Mm) vs est. ($83.91Mm); says cash runway expected into 2H27; files for mixed shelf offering of up to $300M.

• Cloudflare (NET) double upgraded to Buy from Underperform at Bank America and raised its tgt to $160, up from $60.
• India plans to scrap a contentious tax of 6% on digital advertisements that primarily affected U.S. tech giants such as Alphabet’s (GOOGL), Meta (META), and Amazon (AMZN), aiming to ease U.S. concerns and advance a trade pact.
• Crown Castle (CCI) announces CEO transition as Daniel Schlanger, current executive vice President and CFO, appointed interim President and CEO; reaffirms all recently announced financial guidance and capital allocation policies; Steven Moskowitz terminated as president and CEO.
• Volkswagen (VOWGY) said on Tuesday it would collaborate with automotive parts suppliers Valeo and Mobileye (MBLY) to develop better driver assistance systems for its cars.