Early Look

Friday, March 28, 2025

U.S. futures are looking lower slightly lower, while global equities sold off for a third day, pushing gold futures to new highs above $3,100 an ounce as investors continue to grapple with a potential escalating trade war ahead of the April 2^nd reciprocal tariffs promised by President Trump. Stock markets started the week off with big gains on high hopes that the President would temper his tariff plans, but sentiment changed midweek upon news of new duties on auto imports, 25% levies on foreign cars along with more hawkish comments on what lies ahead in the trade war. Attention today turns to inflation with the release of February’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge at 8:30 am then University of Michigan Confidence later at 10:00 am. Also in tech, data center CoreWeave (CRWV) 37.5M share IPO priced at $40.00, below $47.00-$55.00 target range (which had been speculated by the media the last 2-days) and the deal size was reduced to 37.5M shares from 49M. In retailers, shares of LULU and OXM are down over 10% overnight after results/guidance. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index tumbled -679 points or 1.8% to 37,120, the Shanghai Index fell -22 points to 3,351, and the Hang Seng Index dropped -152 points to 23,426. In Europe, the German DAX is down -130 points to 22,547, while the FTSE 100 is flat at 8,657. Markets are up slightly heading into the final day of trading, with the end of Q1 on Monday!

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -155.09 points, or 0.37%, to 42,299.70
• The Nasdaq Composite dropped -94.98 points, or 0.53%, to 17,804.03
• The Russell 2000 Index declined -8.14 points, or 0.39% to 2,065.69

• 8:30 AM ET                  Personal Spending M/M for February…est. +0.5% (prior -0.2%)
• 8:30 AM ET PCE Price Index M/M for February…est. +0.3% (prior +0.3%)
• 8:30 AM ET PCE Price Index Y/Y for February…est. +2.5% (prior +2.5%)
• 8:30 AM ET                  Core PCE Price Index M/M for February…est. +0.3% (prior +0.3%)
• 8:30 AM ET                  Core PCE Price Index Y/Y for February…est. +2.7% (prior +2.6%)
• 1:00 PM ET                   Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data
• 10:00 AM ET                University of Michigan Confidence, March-final…est. 57.9
• 10:00 AM ET                University of Michigan 1yr and 5-yr inflation expectations… prior 4.9% and 3.9%
• 3:30 PM ET                   Fed’s Bostic Moderates Panel on Housing Finance

• Chinese Pres Xi reaffirmed that maintaining a stable & healthy development of US/China relations is fundamental; will handle US/China relations based on the principle of mutual respect & win-win cooperation.
• Bitcoin prices -2.54% to $85,100, are now down roughly -9% this week.

• Oxford Industries (OXM) Q4 adj EPS $1.37 vs est. $1.27 on sales $391Mm vs est. $383.94Mm; guides Q1 sales $375-395Mm vs est. $401.18Mm and adj EPS $1.70-1.90, vs est. $2.79; sees FY revs $1.49-1.53B vs est. $1.54B and adj EPS $4.60-5.00 vs est. $6.81.

• Argan Inc. (AGX) Q4 EPS $2.22 vs est. $1.15, EBITDA $39.3Mm vs est. $19.4Mm on revs $232.5Mm vs est. $197.5Mm.
• KULR Technology Group (KULR) Q4 EPS ($0.02) vs est. ($0.02), op Inc ($3.54Mm) vs est. ($3.046Mm) on revs $3.37Mm vs est. $2.901Mm, had bitcoin holdings of $20.28Mm as of 12/31/24.
• Nippon (NPSCY) and US Steel (X) offer increased investment to Trump officials to close deal; Nippon Steel and US Steel are in talks with the Trump administration to salvage their $14B merger by offering billions more in investments from the Japanese steelmaker into outdated Rust Belt facilities – Semafor reports.
• Schneider National (SNDR) downgraded to Neutral at Bank America and cut tgt to $25 from $34 as sees softer demand due to tariff uncertainty, slowing consumer spending, and spot pricing pressure.

• CureVac (CVAC) announced that the European Patent Office has confirmed the validity of the company’s European patent EP 3 708 668 B1 subject to amendments to specify the scope of protection.
• Kodiak Sciences (KOD) Q4 EPS ($0.84) vs est. ($0.88); says believe cash will support operations into 2026

• Braze (BRZE) to acquire OfferFit for $325M in cash-and-stock deal, an AI decisioning company, subject to customary closing adjustments.
• Civeo Corp (CVEO) authorizes a new share repurchase program for up to 10% of shares.