Early Look

Friday, March 31, 2023

U.S. futures are looking steady to slightly higher on this month-end, quarter-end that has been a good one for U.S. stocks. Heading into today, the S&P 500 is up 2% Month-to-date and 5.5% for the quarter, the Nasdaq is up 4.8% MTD and 14.7% QTD, the Dow is up +0.6% MTD but down -0.8% QTD and the Russell 2000 is -6.75% MTD (on regional bank weakness) and +0.4% QTD. All eyes this morning on the Fed’s favored inflation gauge at 8:30 AM this morning with March Personal income (est. +0.2%) and spending (+0.3%) as well as core PCE M/M (est. +0.4%) and Y/Y (est. +4.7%). Later Friday morning Chicago PMI (est. 43.4) and University of Michigan sentiment (est. 63.2) with 1 and 5-yr inflation expectations. Also on the calendar, another heavy line-up of Fed speakers with Barr at 10:00 AM, Williams at 3:00 PM ET, Waller at 4:00 PM and Cook 5:45 PM. Equity markets were again unphased by a chorus of Fed speakers Thursday, talking about higher rates again as Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said the central bank can raise rates more if inflation risks persist. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said tightening was needed, while Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said he’s committed to getting inflation back to 2%. The S&P 500 rose Thursday, as investors bet the worst of the regional bank crisis has passed, although financials were the only S&P sector down on the day. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index jumps 258 points to 28,041, the Shanghai Index gains 11 points to 3,272, and the Hang Seng Index rises 90 points to 20,400. In Europe, the German DAX is up 72 points to 15,595, while the FTSE 100 is up 18 points to 7,638.

Economic Calendar for Today

·     8:30 AM ET            Personal Income M/M for March…est. +0.2%

·     8:30 AM ET            Personal Spending M/M for March…est. +0.3%

·     8:30 AM ET            PCE Price Index M/M for Feb

·     8:30 AM ET            PCE Price Index Y/Y for Feb

·     8:30 AM ET            Core PCE Price Index M/M for Feb…est. +0.4%

·     8:30 AM ET            Core PCE Price Index Y/Y for Feb…est. +4.7%

·     9:45 AM ET            Chicago PMI for March…est. 43.4

·     10:00 AM ET          University of Michigan Sentiment, March-F…est. 63.2

·     10:00 AM ET          University of Michigan inflation expectations for 1 and 5-yr

·     1:00 PM ET             Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

Market Closing Prices Yesterday

·     The S&P 500 Index climbed 23.04 points, or 0.57%, to 4,050.85.

·     The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 141.96 points, or 0.43%, to 32,859.56.

·     The Nasdaq Composite gained 87.24 points, or 0.73%, to 12,013.47.

·     The Russell 2000 Index declined -3.21 points, or 0.18% to 1,768.38.

World News

·     China Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.9 in March, versus 51.6 expected and 52.6 prior. Non-Manufacturing PMI rose to 58.2 vs 55.0 expected and 56.3 prior.

·     Japan CPI came in stronger than expected, with YoY at 3.3% vs 3.2% consensus, and 3.4% prior. Ex-fresh food, YoY was 3.2% vs 3.1% expected, and 3.0% last. Ex fresh-food, energy YoY was 3.4% vs 3.2% survey and 3.1% prior. The Jobless rate rose 2.6% in February, versus 2.4% expected and 2.4% prior,

·     @Barchart tweeted last night: Bitcoin $BTC is on the verge of having its 3rd consecutive green month.  Last time that happened? October 2020 – March 2021 when the price went parabolic from 10.4k to 61.7k.

Sector News Breakdown

Consumer

·     Nikola (NKLA) announces $100M common stock offering.

·     Nu Skin (NUS) backs Q1 adjusted EPS $0.25-$0.35 vs. est. $0.33; and backs Q1 revenue view $450M-$490M vs. consensus $476.03M; and backs year outlook.

·     Xpeng (XPEV) said it will be rolling out its latest assisted driving software to users in the metropolis of Shanghai, something its U.S. rival Tesla does not offer in China. – CNBC

Financials

·     Banks reduced their borrowings from two Federal Reserve backstop lending facilities in the most recent week, a sign that liquidity demand may be stabilizing. US institutions had a combined $152.6 billion in outstanding borrowings in the week through March 29, compared with $163.9 billion the previous week.

·     The Federal Reserve boosted lending from its new backstop program designed to enhance liquidity at regional lenders last week, but overall support levels eased as the balance sheet stresses at smaller banks look to have stabilized.

·     Lending by the Fed’s new Bank Term Funding Program rose by $10.7 billion to $64.4 billion over the week ending on March 29, according to Fed data published late Thursday, while lending at its main discount window slipped by $22 billion to $88.2 billion. So-called ‘other credit’ lending, which is tied to FDIC support for failed lenders, was steady at $180.1 billion.

·     Medical Properties Trust (MPW) announced that it has filed a lawsuit in federal court against Viceroy Research, a short-selling firm that “has repeatedly published baseless allegations to drive down the company’s stock price.

Healthcare

·     Aehr Test Systems (AEHR) qtrly net sales were $17.2 million, up 13%; reiterating its previously provided guidance for total revenue; said continues to expect bookings to grow faster than revenues in fiscal 2023.

·     Eisai (ESALY) and Biogen (BIIB) announced that three additional detailed analyses from the Phase IIb clinical study, evaluating the efficacy and safety of lecanemab for mild cognitive impairment due to Alzheimer’s disease and mild AD, were published in the peer-reviewed journals.

·     Icosavax (ICVX) completed dosing in ongoing Phase 1 study of IVX-A12; topline interim results expected in 2Q 2023 – Initiation of IVX-A12 Phase 2 trial expected in 2H 2023; cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, and short-term investments of $219.4M at end 4Q 2022.

·     Sientra Inc. (SIEN) 4Q EPS ($2.35) vs est. ($1.34) on sales $25.1Mm vs est. $25.2Mm; sees FY net sales $104-109Mm vs est. $105.8Mm.

·     Y-mAbs Therapeutics (YMAB) files $150M mixed securities shelf.

·     Zimmer Biomet (ZBH) upgraded to Hold from Underperform at Jefferies.

Technology, Media & Telecom

·     Braze Inc. (BRZE) 4Q adj EPS ($0.14) vs est. ($0.19) on revs $98.7Mm vs est. $95.7Mm; guides 1Q revs $98.5-99.5Mm vs est. $100.5Mm, adj EPS ($0.19)-($0.18) vs est. ($0.17), sees FY revs $433-438Mm vs est. $442Mm and adj EPS ($0.59)-($0.55) vs est. ($0.57).

·     Rumble Inc. (RUM) 4Q EPS $0.00 vs est. ($0.02) on revs $20Mm vs est. $10.2Mm, says has cash & equivalents sufficient to fund liquidity needs for at least next 12 months; qtrly average global monthly active users (“Maus”) increased 142% to 80 mln.

·     Skillz Inc. (SKLZ) Q4 EPS loss (-$0.34) on revs $46.9M, down -57% y/y vs. est. $48M; Q4 adj EBITDA loss of -$9.47M, down -88% y/y and operating loss -$139.2M; Q4 total marketplace gross merchandise value fell -54% y/y to $297.6M.

·     Vipshop (VIPS) authorizes new share buyback program for repurchase of up to $500 mln of its American depositary shares through March, 2025.