Early Look

Friday, May 2, 2025

U.S. stock futures are looking higher, getting a boost overnight after China has said it’s evaluating approaches from US officials to start negotiations about tariffs, a potential de-escalation in the trade war that has raised hopes that formal trade talks could start soon. The news about trade helped offset the weaker reaction to Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) earnings, as shares of both declined overnight. Apple warned of a $900 million tariff headwind this quarter and cut back on share buybacks, sending its stock lower, while Amazon (AMZN) lost ground after earnings topped estimates, but disappointing guidance weighed on shares. Earnings this morning from major oils Chevron (CVX) and Exxon (XOM) were mixed (see below), but attention turns to the key monthly jobs report as at 8:30 am et, Nonfarm Payrolls for April are expected to climb +130K (prior +228K), Private Payrolls est. +125K (prior +209K), Manufacturing Payrolls est. -5K (prior +1K), and the unemployment rate for April est. 4.2%. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index advanced 378 points to 36,830, the Shanghai Index was closed and the Hang Seng Index jumped 385 points to 22,504. In Europe, the German DAX is jumping 365 points to 22,862, while the FTSE 100 rises 55 points to 8,552. As for yesterday, the S&P 500 finished higher for the 8th straight session; longest daily winning streak since August while the Dow Jones Industrials closed higher for 8th consecutive session; longest winning streak since May 2024. Treasury yields pull back overnight, Bitcoin edges higher and the dollar pares its gains after yesterday’s spike.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 83.60 points, or 0.21%, to 40,752.96
• The Nasdaq Composite gained 264.40 points, or 1.52%, to 17,710.74
• The Russell 2000 Index advanced 11.74 points, or 0.60% to 1,975.86

• 8:30 AM ET                  Private Payrolls for April…est. +125K (prior +209K)
• 8:30 AM ET                  Manufacturing Payrolls for April…est. -5K (prior +1K)
• 8:30 AM ET                  Unemployment Rate for April…est. 4.2%
• 8:30 AM ET                  Average Hourly Earnings M/M for April…est. +0.3%
• 10:00 AM ET                Durable Goods Orders M/M for March
• 10:00 AM ET                Factory Orders M/M for March…est. +4.5%
• 1:00 PM ET                   Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

• AirBnB (ABNB) Q1 EPS $0.24, in-line with consensus on revs 42.27B vs. est. $2.26B; Q1 adjusted EBITDA $417M, $24.5B gross booking value; sees Q2 revenue $2.99B-$3.05B vs. est. $3.03B; sees Q2 y/y growth of Nights and Experiences Booked to moderate vs. Q1; sees Q2 adjusted EBITDA up on y/y basis.
• Magna International (MGA) said it plans to implement cost-saving measures to cushion the hit from U.S. President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs; cost-cutting plans come after the company missed first-quarter profit estimates due to a 3% decline in global vehicle production.
• Maplebear (CART aka Instacart) Q1 EPS $0.37 vs est. $0.39 on revs $897Mm vs est. $898Mm, GTV $9.12B vs est. $9.11B; sees Q2 GTV $8.85-9.0B vs est. $8.94B, adj EBITDA $240-250Mm vs est. $237.2Mm.
• Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) announces an offering of 75M shares of common stock for holders.
• Six Flags Entertainment Corporation (FUN) announced that it will close Six Flags America and Hurricane Harbor in Bowie, Maryland, after the 2025 operating season. The property, which is approximately 500 acres, will be marketed for redevelopment as part of Six Flags’ ongoing portfolio optimization program.
• For auto industry, US Customs and Border Protection confirms in notice that North American auto parts compliant with USMCA trade rules are exempt from Trump’s 25% auto tariff.

• DMC Global (BOOM) Q1 adj EPS $0.11 vs est. ($0.09), adj EBITDA $14.4Mm vs est. $9.867Mm on sales $159.3Mm vs est. $149Mm; guides Q2 sales $149-157Mm vs est. $155.97Mm.
• Eversource Energy (ES) Q1 EPS $1.50 vs. est. $1.51; Q1 revs $4.12B vs. est. $3.77; reaffirmed its earnings projection of between $4.67-$4.82 per share for fiscal year 2025. It also reaffirmed its cumulative long-term earnings per share growth rate of 5 to 7 percent through 2029.
• Exxon Mobil (XOM) Q1 adj EPS $1.76 vs. est. $1.73 (down from $2.06 y/y); Q1 revs $83.13B vs. est. $86.09B; said plans to buy back about $20 billion worth of shares this year and next; said it would be spending nearly $37 billion, versus its $29 billion in expected 2025 free cash flow; Q1 capex $5.9B.
• Martin Midstream Partners LP (MMLP) files for a mixed shelf of up to $250 mln and in addition, selling unitholders may offer, sell, from time to time, up to 6.6 mln common units

• Cboe Global Markets (CBOE) announced that its Board of Directors has appointed longtime global financial markets executive Craig Donohue as the company’s new CEO and a member of the Board, effective May 7.
• LendingTree (TREE) Q1 adj EPS $0.99 vs. est. $0.65 on revs miss $239.7M vs. est. $244.9M; guides 2 revenue $241M-$248M, below consensus $248.5M and cuts FY25 revenue view to $955M-$995M (est. $1.01B) from prior view $985M-$1.025B and cuts FY25 adjusted EBITDA view to $116M-$124M from $116M-$126M.
• Paylocity (PCTY) Q3 EPS $2.43 vs. est. $2.12; Q3 revs rose 13% y/y to $454.5M vs. est. $441.72M; sees Q4 revenue $385.5M-$390.5M vs. est. $381.79M and FY25 revenue $1.58B-$1.585B vs. est. $1.57B.
• Reddit Inc. (RDDT) Q1 EPS $0.13 vs. est. $0.01; Q1 revs rose 61% y/y to $392.4M vs. est. $369.7M; sees Q2 revenue $410M-$430M, vs. consensus $390.7M and sees Q2 adjusted EBITDA $110M-$130M; Q1 Gross margin was 90.5%, an improvement of 190 basis points y/y.
• Riot Platforms (RIOT) reports Q1 revenue $161.4M, vs. $79.3M last year; said the increase was primarily driven by a $71.5M increase in Bitcoin Mining revenue.
• XYZ Inc. (XYZ) shares tumble; Q1 adj EPS $0.56 vs est. $0.87 on revs $5.77B, vs est. $6.2B, total GPV $56.8B; says expect to accelerate gross profit growth meaningfully in 2H, expects gross profit to grow 9.5% to $2.45B in Q2; the co said, “we recognize we are operating in a more dynamic macro environment, so we have reflected a more cautious stance on the macro outlook into our guidance for the rest of the year.”

• BioMarin (BMRN) Q1 EPS $1.13 vs. est. $0.95; Q1 revs $745.1M vs. est. $738.66M; sees 2025 EPS $4.20-$4.40, vs. consensus $4.30 and sees 2025 revenue $3.1B-$3.2B vs. est. $3.14B; we look forward to continued momentum in our global expansion of VOXZOGO(R) for achondroplasia.
• Cigna (CI) Q1 adj EPS $6.74 vs. est. $6.35 and Q1 revenue rose 14% y/y to $65.5B above consensus $60.38B; raises FY25 adjusted EPS view to at least $29.60 from at least $29.50 (est. $29.60); Total customer relationships stood at 182.2 million at the end of the recent quarter, roughly flat from the end of 2024.
• Cytokinetics (CYTK) announces a new PDUFA date for Aficamten in Obstructive Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy.
• Dexcom (DXCM) Q1 adj EPS $0.32 vs. est. $0.33; Q1 revs $1.036B vs. est. $1.017B; Q1 adj net income $127.7M vs. est. $130.7M; announce $750M share repurchase program; guides 2025 revs of $4.60B, 14% growth.
• Exact Sciences (EXAS) Q1 EPS ($0.54) vs est. ($0.38), adj EBITDA $63Mm vs est. $55.93Mm on revs $706.785Mm vs est. $688.64Mm; guides FY revs $3.07-3.12B vs prior $3.025-3.085B and est. $3.055B, adj EBITDA $425-455Mm vs prior $410-440Mm and est. $411.59Mm.
• Hologic (HOLX) Q1 EPS $1.03 vs. est. $1.02 on revs $1.01B vs. est. $1.0B; Q2 adj gross margin 61.1%; cuts FY25 EPS view to $4.15-$4.25 from $4.25-$4.35 (est. $4.26) and affirms FY25 revenue view of $4.05B-$4.10B.
• Mettler-Toledo (MTD) Q1 EPS $8.19 vs. est. $7.88; Q1 revs $883.7M vs. est. $875.8M; cuts FY25 EPS view to $41.25-$42.00 from $42.35-$43.00 (est. $42.40).
• Select Medical (SEM) board authorizes repurchase of up to $1B of shares
• Stryker (SYK) Q1 adj EPS $2.84 vs. est. $2.73; Q1 revs $5.866, vs. est. $5.69B; raising FY25 organic net sales growth range to 8.5% to 9.5% which reflects a modestly favorable pricing impact and a slightly unfavorable; cuts FY25 to $13.20-$13.45 vs. est. $13.45.

• DuPont (DD) Q1 adj EPS $1.03 vs. est. $0.95; Q1 revs $3.07B vs. est. $3.04B; guides Q2 EPS and revs below consensus but backs FY25 adjusted EPS view $4.30-$4.40 (est. $4.26) and backs FY25 revenue view $12.8B-$12.9B (est. $12.74B).
• Ingersoll Rand (IR) Q1 adj EPS $0.72 vs est. $0.73, adj EBITDA $460Mm vs est. $472.67B on revs $1.717B vs est. $1.726B; guides FY revs +3-5% vs prior +3-5% and est. +3.46%, organic revs -1% to +1% vs prior +1-3%, adj EBITDA $2.07-2.13B vs prior $2.13-2.19B and est. $2.129B and adj EPS $3.28-3.40 vs prior $3.38-3.50.
• MasTec (MTZ) Q1 EPS $0.51 vs. est. $0.34; Q1 revs $2.85B vs. est. $2.71B; outlook FY25 adj diluted eps guidance increased 9% from prior midpoint of guidance.
• Olin Corp. (OLN) said they expect direct impact from current tariffs to not be significant; Q2 adjusted ebitda is expected to be in range of $170M-$210M.
• US Steel (X) Q1 adj EBITDA beats at $172M vs $123.8M est.; adj EPS loss narrows to -$0.39 vs -$0.45 est.; rev $3.73B vs $3.63B est.; sees Q2 adj EBITDA $375m–$425M

• Atlassian (TEAM) Q3 adj EPS $0.97 vs est. $0.92 on revs $1.36B vs est. $1.349B; sees Q4 revs $1.349-1.359B vs est. $1.355B, gr mgn 82.5% and adj op mgn 22%.
• Duolingo (DUOL) Q1 revs +38% vs est. +33%, DAUs 46.6Mm, MAUs 130.2Mm; guides Q2 revs $238.5-241.5Mm vs est. $233.76Mm, bookings $243.5-246.5Mm; sees FY revs $987-996Mm vs est. $977.16Mm and adj EBITDA $271.4-283.9Mm vs est. $270.37Mm.
• Go Daddy (GDDY) Q1 rev slightly beats at $1.19B vs $1.19B est.; net income $219.5M; bookings $1.42B; Q1 FCF $411.3M; sees Q2 revs $1.195b–$1.215B vs. est. $1.21B; authorized new repurchase plan of up to $3B.
• Live Nation (LYV) Q1 revs fell -11% y/y to $3.38B vs. est. $3.5B; concert business generated $2.48B, below analysts’ estimates of $2.55B; posted ticketing revenue of $694.7M, which also missed estimates of $776.8M.
• Monolithic Power (MPWR) Q1 adj EPS $4.04 vs est. $4.01 on revs $637.6Mm vs est. $634.28Mm, gr mgn 55.4%; sees Q2 revs $640-660Mm vs est. $636.07Mm.
• Motorola Solutions (MSI) Q1 adj EPS beats at $3.18 vs $3.01 est.; rev $2.53B vs $2.52B est.; Ebit margin 23%, operating cash flow $510M; sees Q2 rev growth 4%, FY adj EPS $14.64–$14.74.
• Roku inc. (ROKU) to acquire streaming service provider Frndly TV in deal valued at $185M in cash; posted smaller Q1 EPS loss (-$0.19) vs. est. loss (-$0.25) on revs $1.02B vs. est. $1.01B; reaffirm our outlook for full-year 2025 Platform revenue of $3.95B and Adjusted EBITDA of $350M and guide revs $4.55B vs. $4.58B est.
• Twilio (TWLO) shares jump; Q1 adj EPS $1.14 vs est. $0.94 on revs $1.17B vs est. $1.14B, adj op Inc $213Mm vs est. $188.39Mm; guides Q2 revs $1.18-1.19B vs est. $1.171B, adj op Inc $195-205Mm vs est. $203.64Mm and adj EPS $0.99-1.04 vs est. $1.04.