Early Look

Wednesday, May 14, 2025

U.S. stock futures are flattish overnight, with the S&P trading in a tight 20-point range after posting its best 2-day gain in three weeks, boosted by shares of technology stocks as the semiconductor index (SOX) topped its 200dma technical level of 4,860 (off April lows around 3,600), led by shares of NVDA. The latest push higher for the S&P and Nasdaq has also lifted the major averages above their 50-dma and 200dma technical resistances with ease. Smallcaps too have participated as @bespokeinvest notes there are 44 stocks in the Russell 1,000 are now up 50%+ since the close on 4/8. A few red flags to watch include the recent spike in Treasury yields as the 10-yr closed around 4.5% yesterday (but has slipped overnight). In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index dipped -55 points to 38,128, the Shanghai Index rose 29 points to 3,403, and the Hang Seng Index surges 532 points to 23,640. In Europe, the German DAX is down -125 points to 23,514, while the FTSE 100 is flat at 8,602. No big economic data points today in the U.S. and no major earnings either until after the close when CSCO reports. So, just how good have markets been over the last month? Well gains from the April lows for Nasdaq 100 +28%, the S&P 500 +22%, and the Dow Jones Industrials +16%.

Stocks have surged the last few trading sessions, with the S&P up 4 of the last 5 (which follows a 9-day win streak at the end of April into early May) and the Nasdaq up 5 in a row, boosted Monday after the U.S. and China said they would pause their trade war for 90 days, bringing down reciprocal duties and removing other measures while they negotiate a more permanent arrangement. The U.S. said it will cut tariffs imposed on Chinese imports to 30% from 145%, while China said it would cut duties on U.S. imports to 10% from 125%. The trade news, coupled with “cooler” CPI inflation data on Tuesday has reignited investor appetite for stocks, cryptocurrencies and commodities. The shift in U.S.-China trade relations has led traders to reduce their expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, but that has done little to reduce interest in global stock markets. The rally has been led by Technology and Consumer Discretionary, while the one sector that lagged significantly in the S&P and Dow is Healthcare, specifically shares of UNH as @bespokeinvest tweeted yesterday: “Since April 11th, $UNH has had a negative impact of nearly 1,800 points on the Dow. Without it, instead of being down 0.7% YTD, it would be up 3.5%.” UNH yesterday announced its CEO was leaving and was withdrawing its forecast for the year citing higher-than-expected medical costs.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -269.67 points, or 0.64%, to 42,140.43
• The Nasdaq Composite gained 301.74 points, or 1.61%, to 19,010.09
• The Russell 2000 Index advanced 10.15 points, or 0.49% to 2,102.35

• 10:30 AM ET                Weekly DOE Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: AEVA BNGO BODI BOOT CCAP CDXS CELV CRWV CSCO CSWC CTSO DERM DLO DXC FIHL FOSL GAU HWKN IBTA IREN ITRG JACK LAZR MDXH NVGS NXT SCPH SGML SPIR STE STN TMC USIO

• JP Morgan Technology, Media, and Communications Conference, 5/13-5/15 in Boston, MA

• Aurora Innovation (AUR) shares plunge after Uber (UBER), a leading backer, said it plans to sell $1 billion of senior notes exchangeable into shares of the self-driving technology developer.
• Burberry (BURBY) shares jump after the luxury retailer posts FY adj. operating profit of 26M pounds ($34.6M) vs 11M pounds, according to company-compiled estimates; said expects reduction in people-related costs, which could impact 1,700 roles globally; says still in early stages of a turnaround, with geopolitical developments making the economy more uncertain; notes significant improvement in comp sales in H2 vs H1
• KinderCare Learning (KLC) Q1 adj EPS $0.23 vs est. $0.17 on revs $668.2Mm vs est. $680.94Mm; maintains FY guide for revs approx $2.75-2.85B vs est. $2.808B, adj EBITDA $310-325Mm vs est. $314.31Mm and adj EPS $0.75-0.85 vs est. $0.79.
• Xenia Hotels & Resorts (XHR) authorizes repurchase of up to an additional $100M in shares.

• Nu Holdings (NU) reported an adj $606.5M net profit for Q1, below analysts est. of $630.5M; said has near 119 million customers in Brazil and its younger markets Colombia and Mexico, said its total revenue came in at $3.2 billion, increasing 19% y/y; annualized non-adjusted return on equity stood at 27%.
• RobinHood Markets (HOOD) April stats: Funded Customers at the end of April were 25.9 million (up approximately 120 thousand from March 2025, up approximately 2 million y/y); Total Platform Assets at the end of April were $232B (up 5% m/m and up 88% y/y); net deposits were $6.8B in April; Equity Notional Trading Volumes were $157.8B (up 26% m/m and up 123% y/y; options contracts traded were 167.5M,  (roughly flat q/q and up 32% y/y; crypto notional trading volumes were $8.6B, -24% m/m and -15% y/y.

• Alcon (ALC) Q1 EPS $0.73 vs. est. $0.76; Q1 revenue $2.45B vs. est. $2.52B; cuts FY25 EPS view to $3.05-$3.15 from $3.15-$3.25 (est. $3.24) and raises FY25 revenue view to $10.4B-$10.5B from $10.2B-$10.4B.
• Capricor Therapeutics (CAPR) Q1 EPS ($0.53) vs est. ($0.32), op exp $25Mm; says cash balance of approx $145Mm expected to support planned operations into 2027.
• Exelixis Inc. (EXEL) Q1 adj EPS $0.62 vs. est. $0.44; Q1 revs $555.4M vs. est. $500.96M; said based on strong first quarter dynamics of CABOMETYX, they are increasing FY25 guidance for net product revenues and total revenues by $100M to $2.25B-$2.35B from $2.15B-$2.25B (est. $2.25B); said rapidly mobilized for the launch of CABOMETYX in advanced neuroendocrine tumors within hours of receiving U.S. regulatory approval.
• GSK (GSK) will acquire liver-disease treatment efimosfermin from Boston Pharmaceuticals for up to $2 billion to expand its portfolio. GSK said that it will pay the U.S. biotech company $1.2 billion up-front, and that the deal includes potential success-based milestone payments of $800 million.
• Grail Inc. (GRAL) shares fall on results; Q1 EPS ($3.10) vs est. ($4.09), adj EBITDA ($98.7Mm) vs est. ($91.35Mm) on revs $31.8Mm vs est. $35.2Mm.
• Zevra Therapeutics (ZVRA) Q1 EPS ($0.06) vs est. ($0.19) on revs $20.401Mm vs est. $16.96Mm.

• Klaviyo (KVYO) announces $372M Series A common stock offering for holders.
• PagerDuty, Inc. (PD), announced that the company renewed its global strategic collaboration agreement (SCA) with Amazon Web Services (AWS), to leverage advanced generative AI services from AWS within the PagerDuty Operations Cloud to enhance the detection and remediation of operational IT issues. The agreement extends the decade-plus collaboration between PagerDuty and AWS.
• Similar Web (SMWB) Q1 adj EPS loss (-$0.02) vs. est. loss (-$0.01); Q1 revs $67.1M vs. est. $66.33M; sees FY25 revenue $285M-$288M, vs. consensus $285.41M and non-GAAP operating profit is estimated between $1.0 million and $4.0 million.
• Super Micro Computer (SMCI) announced a $20 billion+ multi-year partnership with Saudi Arabia-based DataVolt during the Saudi-U.S. Investment Forum in Riyadh. The deal focuses on accelerating the adoption of rack-scale total liquid cooling IT solutions for AI data centers.
• Webtoon Entertainment (WBTN) Q1 adj EPS $0.03 vs est. ($0.15), adj EBITDA $4.1Mm vs est. $8.25Mm on revs $325.7Mm vs est. $331.94Mm; shares -10%; sees Q2 revs $335-345Mm vs est. $335.81Mm and adj EBITDA $0.5-5.5Mm vs est. $9.567Mm.